If not for the coverage of the Athletics and their proposed move to Las Vegas, the Royals’ ineptitude this season would garner more attention. With its worst 73-game mark in franchise history, Kansas City (20–53) is on pace for 118 losses, which would blow away its previous high of 106 in 2005.
Oakland’s steep decline from 86 wins just two years ago seems an intentional lack of commitment toward getting either the city of Oakland or Las Vegas to pony up money for a ballpark. Kansas City’s slow decline from its 2015 World Series championship is an abject failure of player development—and a reminder that as the MLB draft approaches, the flowery praise heaped upon pitching prospects almost never matches the outcome.
Five years after the Royals were lauded for snagging four college pitchers among the first 40 picks in the 2018 draft, Kansas City is joining the 1962 Mets among the worst rotations in history. Signed for $9.7 million in bonuses, Brady Singer, Jackson Kowar, Daniel Lynch and Kris Bubic have struggled to meet expectations. Combined in their careers they are 42–82, including 5–11 with a 5.44 ERA this year. All have above-average career walk rates except Singer, who is slightly below 3.3 walks per nine innings.
As part of an offseason overhaul to build a pitching philosophy rooted more in analytics and technology, the Royals brought in manager Matt Quatraro from the Rays, pitching coach Brian Sweeney from the Guardians and assistant pitching coach and director of major league pitching strategy Zach Bove from the Twins. The results so far: incremental progress. The team’s walk rate and ERA have gone up while its strikeout rate has improved. The Royals are a bit better at strike percentage and first-pitch strikes, though they were dead last a year ago in those categories.
“I don’t think it’s just a blanket philosophy,” Quatraro says when asked to explain the Royals’ new pitching process. “I think it’s very individualized on the guy. And I think that’s where the plan started ... figure out what each guy needs. Now, within that there’s the philosophy of throw strike one, get in the zone, challenge hitters, then expand when you’re ahead.
“But more so it’s [about] each guy. We were hopeful to see steps forward from each guy. Bubic’s been hurt. Lynch was hurt. So we’re still in the infancy stage of that kind of fit. We feel really good about guys that are making strides with walk rates and strike percentages and stuff in the minor leagues.
“You don’t turn things in a couple months. It is a process, and it takes time. So, we feel good about some of the things in the minor leagues, especially the underlying numbers that are improving. It’s been a tough go for us up here for a lot of different reasons, but we still believe in what we are talking about and trying to get guys to accomplish. We don’t expect it to change overnight, essentially.”
The pitching development troubles are more deeply rooted. The Royals have not drafted and developed a 10-WAR pitcher since they took Danny Duffy in 2007. From ’16 to ’19, Kansas City drafted and signed 79 pitchers, including 72 from college programs. They have returned 8.4 WAR, which is less than Shane McClanahan, who was in that ’18 draft, has by himself, and a major league record of 53–100.
Those misses help explain how Kansas City wound up with a rotation this year of 32-year-old Jordan Lyles (0–11, 6.72), 39-year-old Zack Greinke (1–7, 4.81), the struggling Singer (4–6, 6.33) and a bunch of openers and tryouts.
Just how bad is it? Even with a gem from Lynch on Tuesday (one hit over seven shutout innings against Detroit), Royals starters have the third-worst winning percentage of all time and are on pace for just 22 wins.
| Team | W-L | Pct. |
|---|---|---|
2023 A’s |
6-35 |
.146 |
1962 Mets |
23-98 |
.190 |
2023 Royals |
10-36 |
.217 |
2019 Tigers |
23-81 |
.221 |
1919 A’s |
28-96 |
.226 |
| Team | Wins (*Projected) |
|---|---|
2023 A’s |
13-76* |
2022 Pirates |
21-62 |
2023 Royals |
22-80* |
2019 Tigers |
23-81 |
1962 Mets |
23-98 |
2021 Orioles |
24-76 |
You might have noticed a heavy lean toward recent teams when it comes to all-time lousy rotations. With the steady decline in workload for starters, starters win less often. Four of the five worst winning percentages for starters have occurred in the previous four seasons. The downward trend is acute with Oakland and Kansas City this year.
Help for the Royals is not coming anytime soon. Kansas City does not have a pitcher among the top 100 prospects. Their top pitching prospects are in A ball: Ben Kudrna, a high school pick from 2021, and Frank Mozzicato, a first-round college pick from the same draft.
In the meantime, their class of 2018 continues to muddle along. Bubic is out for the year due to Tommy John surgery. Kowar has become a bullpen guy with command issues. Lynch’s fastball velocity is down, but his elite extension allows it to play up, as it did Tuesday. Singer is struggling to command his sinker (.348 batting average against).
All Kansas City pitchers toil under a small margin of error. The team’s offense scores fewer runs than every team except Oakland and Detroit, and gets on base at the worst rate except for the White Sox. The Royals have the youngest group of position players in the majors, with an average age of 26.7. But their pitchers, because of the system’s development problems, rank 24th (30.2). It is the kind of mix that is adding up to a record number of losses.
“The message has been consistency and effort,” Quatraro says. “You push process, you know, that kind of thing. But the attitude’s been good. I mean, I’m sure some of these guys wear it a little bit when they leave. But when they come in every day, it’s a new day. And that’s one of the things that they’ve done really well.”
