In Mexico, the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) has launched terrifying reprisals for the death of its leader, Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes. Better known as “El Mencho”, he ran one of the biggest and most violent organised crime gangs in Mexico.
Since his death there have been large-scale coordinated attacks in Jalisco state, the cartel’s heartland – including at the Pacific resort of Puerto Vallarta, and the World Cup host city of Guadalajara. The Foreign Office has issued multiple warnings to British travellers in Mexico.
Violence is now spreading across the nation: blocking highways and burning vehicles, with innocents caught in the crossfire as Mexican security forces try to restore order.
For an assessment of the risks facing British travellers to the most popular holiday locations in Mexico, The Independent has enlisted help from Sandra Pellegrini – senior analyst for Latin America for the conflict monitoring group Acled (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data).
We asked Ms Pellegrini to assess the dangers in three key areas of Mexico popular with UK travellers:
- Mexico City
- Quintana Roo and Yucatan states – location for Cancun, other resorts and many archaeological sites
- Oaxaca state, including the city itself plus Pacific coast resorts
These are the questions I asked Ms Pellegrini, along with her answers. Her insights make essential reading for anyone contemplating a trip to Mexico.
What’s the picture across Mexico?
“Early developments indicate that what we are likely to see in the short term is a show of force by the CJNG and its allies against security forces.
“Usually, in more tourism-oriented areas, criminal groups have maintained a lower profile so as not to attract major operations and preserve their revenue streams.
“The states of Yucatan, Quintana Roo and Oaxaca are not among Mexico’s hotspots of violence. Mexico City does not rank among the most violent states either, although gang-related violence has increased in 2025 compared to the previous four years.
“That being said, the CJNG remains one of the most powerful cartels in the country, with a near-nationwide presence, including in the states you mentioned, and in fact, we have already begun to see signs of reactive unrest following the killing of El Mencho.
“It is possible that the killing of El Mencho could lead to an internal power struggle within the CJNG. Rival groups might be attempting to take advantage of the destabilisation within the CJNG to push for territorial control.”
Is Mexico City a possible battleground?
“There is no clear cartel hegemony over Mexico City and the capital remains heavily contested by several criminal actors.
“However, the CJNG has reportedly established a foothold and has sought to expand its influence, notably through alliances with local groups such as La Unión Tepito.
“At present, the security situation does not appear critical, although local authorities have raised alert levels. An immediate surge in violence seems less likely, though it cannot be excluded, and retaliatory actions against the government remain possible.”
What about the Yucatan peninsula?
“The region has been disputed between the CJNG and the Sinaloa Cartel, partly due to its strategic position as an entry point for drug shipments from South America. More specifically, the CJNG has maintained a presence around Cancun and the coast (including Cozumel), as well as Mérida and its coastal areas.
“There are already reports of narco roadblocks and arson attacks against businesses in Cozumel, Playa del Carmen, Tulum, and Cancun. These actions appear to be demonstrations of force.
“For travellers, the main short-term risk would be localised disruption (road and business closures, temporary security incidents) rather than targeted violence against tourists.”
And in the southern state of Oaxaca?
“The CJNG is present in Oaxaca state, particularly in parts of central and northeastern Oaxaca.
“At this stage, violence and narco roadblocks do not appear to directly affect coastal tourist areas such as Huatulco or Puerto Escondido. But they have been recorded along the Juchitán–La Ventosa highway, which links the region with Chiapas in southeast Mexico.”
Will the killing of a cartel leader calm the nation?
“No. The immediate highway blockades and arson attacks show how quickly cartels can mobilise retaliation to demonstrate continued control. Past cases suggest leadership removals rarely reduce violence long term, and instead often trigger instability as factions compete for power.”
Read more: Advice for British travellers in Mexico – or planning to go there soon
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