The Rhode Island Scumbag is our resident prognosticator who thoroughly cleaned up last year’s postseason basketball slate as a bettor. As such, he’s back to take us through both a select group of conference tournaments as well as the big dance itself. He chooses to remain anonymous (for now) for reasons unknown, though they may be related to the fact “Rhode Island Scumbag — 2021 to present” isn’t a particularly appealing resume item.
Our betting sherpa did not have a good time in Las Vegas. Or, rather, he had a very good time while getting his per-drink cost down to roughly $120. Was he simply living the high life? Limiting his boozing after a night of modest blackjack losses? Or suffering through an unpredictable stretch of conference tournaments?
I’ll let you decide, dear reader, but since last week’s game picks hit at a 25 percent success rate and both his futures shots failed, it all added up to an uncharacteristically unprofitable week for a guy whose college basketball picks have historically done work around these parts. Last year’s locks paid out +49 units across three weeks and he’s be privately prolific with his regular season bets, so we’re gonna venture into the breach once more and see what turns out.
From here on out, all picks and analysis are his.
Alright, what should we be looking for?
There are three factors I keep an eye out for when betting the NCAA men’s tournament. While a lot of my betting comes from the sheer amount of games I watch, there’s a system to follow if you’re not entrenched in the America East or Patriot Conferences. Specifically, I’m looking for:
- Gross underdogs: Dogs where 85 percent of the money is on the favorite and the line is inflated.
- Good teams coming off conference tournament wins — in this case, someone like Alabama, Texas, hell, even Vermont.
- Hot teams. No further explanation needed there.
Don’t have a favorite to bet? Track down these trends and you’ll find value, guaranteed.
The Scumbag Locks (tm) of the opening round
Texas -13.5 over Colgate. The Longhorns have had 14 wins this year by 14-plus, including twice against Kansas and twice against Oklahoma State. The also covered this number against Iowa State, Gonzaga, and West Virginia.
I’ve seen Colgate play. They are NOT on that level. When they stepped out of the Patriot League, they went 7-7 and lost by double digits to Penn and Cornell. The only team close to Texas that they played was Auburn and they lost 93-66 after trailing by 14 at halftime. I think the Longhorns are up at least that much at the break, then never look back.
Kansas -21.5 over Howard. Howard made the tournament for the first time since 1992. That’s a great story … but this is a team that’s just happy to be here. Maybe they put in work early, but they can’t hang with the Jayhawks.
Futures bets to lock in before the payout drops
Alabama to win NCAA tournament (+650): Tremendous odds for the overall #1 seed in a very cushy region. They have a guaranteed win over the worst team in the tournament to start things. Then they get a weak Big Ten or Big 12 opponent to wrap up the weekend. Zero concern there.
The rest of the top half of the South bracket isn’t very intimidating. I do worry if Creighton gets through. They have the coaching advantage and the firepower to keep up with ‘Bama and are battle tested enough to make it a game late. But if it’s not the Bluejays, Alabama is golden.
Once we get to the Final Four there are enough hedge opportunities, so I’ll cut the analysis there and cross that bridge when we get there. A lot of people are buying this team’s offense but don’t forget they have a top 10 defense — their 92.2 defensive rating ranks eighth among 364 Division I teams. Roll Tide.
Connecticut to reach Sweet 16 (-115). This team is just too good and has an easy path to two wins.
Creighton to reach Sweet 16 (+125). My biggest concern for the Tide. Five wins over ranked opponents and the balance to beat anyone on a given night (five players average at least 11.9 points per game).
NC State to reach Elite Eight (+1500). A bit of a hedge given that Creighton bet. The Wolfpack have the best backcourt in the ACC. That leads to wins in March.
Kentucky to reach Final Four (+1000). Always a team worth backing against long odds. Calipari loves the added pressure. It’s motivation to him.
