The Rhode Island Scumbag started off the 2022 NFL season with a 3-0 record. He also, apparently, did not appreciate me telling the world he doesn’t believe in outer space.
The deluge at Soldier Field, Justin Fields’ wizardry and Trey Lance’s inability to generate offense — especially after losing Eli Mitchell — paid off his Chicago Bears +6.5 bet and made my declaration that I’d take the San Francisco 49ers at -10 look utterly stupid. Throw in the Atlanta Falcons’ feistiness and the New England Patriots’ struggles and you’ve got an early undefeated record that’s 25 percent of the way to the 12-0 start at which I promised him a podcast.
[Ed note: Oh GOD why did I promise him a podcast DAMMIT what a terrible idea.]
This, fortunately for all of us, led to a 300-word lecture that preceded this week’s picks. Here it is, edited for content and conciseness and because he spelled my name three different ways in the space of one paragraph.
Ever wonder why every stat nerd you hear on the radio or have to listen to in the pre-game shows isn’t smashing every single bet and cashing tickets every weekend? That’s because as long time bookmaker Jimmy Vaccaro once said “trends don’t pay the rent, my friend.” That’s why I wasn’t worried when my boy Christian D’Andrea [Ed. note: he used my full name like a disappointed parent!] threw a bunch of stats my way to try and make my Chicago Bears pick look like a guaranteed loser. If sports betting were that easy, all those fancy hotels in Vegas would more closely resemble a Howard Johnson’s. No, this racket is not that easy. You want to lay points on the road with an unproven QB in a hostile environment? You go right ahead, Christian.
This is going to be a great battle between Christian and myself because we are completely opposite in our approach to selecting games. I watch the games on Sunday. Then, I make the lines on Monday (or what I think the lines should be.) Then, I compare my lines to the Vegas lines and see where I have an advantage. Christian seems to bet a lot more based on trends, statistics from some random number crunchers. He pays less attention to the actual human beings playing the great game of football. We will see how that works out as the season progresses.
It is here I would like to remind you that the RIS locks finished the 2021 season at 7-21. If they were a football team, they would have been Joe Judge’s New York Giants. If he did pay attention to trends, he would know he did not cash a single lock after Week 16, including the playoffs.
Also, the “random number crunchers” are the NFL themselves, but go off king. God damn I love this guy. Maybe that podcast is a *great* idea. Alright man, light me up again.
The Scumbag Lock of the Week, part I: New Orleans Saints (+3.5) vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Buy low, sell high. I think we have a great buy low spot for the New Orleans Saints.
Let’s be honest, they didn’t look great against Atlanta. They made Marcus Mariota look like Mike Vick out there and outside of some long Taysom Hill runs were not very productive on offense in the first half.
However, they showed some grit and got the job done when it mattered, leaning on some veterans to make key plays down the stretch. The Buccaneers looked great against the Cowboys and I’m going to sell them at their peak. I think the Cowboys are TERRIBLE. They were out of sync, out of position (no surprise there with Dan Quinn calling the defense) and just unimaginative offensively. Mike McCarthy has a better chance winning a hot-dog eating contest than a football game and even then, I’d probably bet against him because he is so mentally weak. [Editor’s note: I’m dying.]
In summary, Saints looked bad. Bucs looked good. That is what your typical meathead sports bettor will think. WE WILL NOT! We will let them bet that line up to a healthy 3.5 and take the points. Saints will probably win, but let’s grab the 3.5 just in case.
The Scumbag Lock of the Week, part II: Detroit Lions (-2.5) vs. the Washington Commanders
Very similar logic here. Washington looked OK against a VERY, VERY bad Jacksonville defense. Detroit’s defense is bad, but I don’t think they are as bad as Jax. Also, Detroit proved that they can move the football in a variety of ways. This should help neutralize the Washington pass rush which will have to focus on slowing down the running game before they can pin their ears back and try and get to Goff.
Bet the lions, this one will be over by halftime.
The Scumbag Lock of the Week, part III AND IV: New England Patriots-Pittsburgh Steelers UNDER 41, Carolina Panthers-New York Giants UNDER 43
Two more locks in barely a sentence each here, which is about all they need:
Pitt/NE: these teams play at a very slow pace.
NYG/CAR: Two teams trying to hide weak QB play by running the football.
Scumbag locks last week: 3-0 (1.000)
Scumbag locks year to date: 3-0 (1.000)
My non-scumbag locks: Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5) over the Minnesota Vikings, Vikings-Eagles total OVER 50.5 points, Pittsburgh Steelers (+2) over the New England Patriots
Welp, I liked the Lions here, but that’s boring now that our guy is all over it.
Minnesota rolled in Week 1 while Philly gave up 35 points to a Jared Goff offense and nearly 10 yards per carry to D’Andre Swift. That’s concerning! But the Eagles offense is a much different beast than the receiver-less Packers. Green Bay no longer has an alpha wideout to strike fear into a medium-good secondary. As Philadelphia proved in Week 1, it does: A.J. Brown.
The result is two solid offenses capable of going well over the total of 50.5, especially if Dalvin Cook — 90 rushing yards against the Pack — can gash that Eagle run defense like Swift did. So give me the Eagles and, what the hell, let’s toss in OVER 51 (which pays out a tidy +115) in an effort to keep pace with my boy above.
While we’re here, let’s add the Steelers as a two-point home underdog to the list. Mike Tomlin hates the Patriots so much. This is his first chance to play them without Tom Brady in the lineup since 2008, when Matt Cassel took the helm following Brady’s torn ACL.
That ended in a Pittsburgh blowout from a team that eventually won the Super Bowl. These Steelers aren’t that good, but the New England squad that showed up in Miami looked pretty grim themselves. The fans at not-Heinz Field are going to be furious; expect Pittsburgh to give them a show.
Non-Scumbag lock last week: 0-1 (.000, my Giants over seven wins futures bet is pending)
Non-Scumbag locks year to date: 0-1 (000)
