Note: While a big part of fantasy football research is trying to assess how players will do when they go to a new team, it’s also critical to get a handle on what the old team is doing to replace those players. It’s an opportunity for players to step up and fill the void. In this series, we’ll examine six teams that had key departures this offseason and must find new ways to replace key fantasy production.
Few players are as tied to their team’s offensive identity as Tyreek Hill was to the Chiefs.
This season will mark the first time Patrick Mahomes sets up behind center without Hill in the slot. The speedster’s move from Kansas City to Miami was one of many marquee trades this offseason that shook up the receiver market in the NFL. It also vacated 159 targets–23.6% of the total pie for one of the best offenses in the league.
Hill saw a career-high number of passes thrown his way last season. It was the seventh-most in the NFL, second only to Davante Adams among receivers who switched teams.
The braintrust of Mahomes and Andy Reid is enough to keep the faith in K.C., but Hill is not all this offense lost. Due to the departures of not only Hill, but also Byron Pringle, Darrel Williams and Demarcus Robinson, there are 360 vacated targets in the Chiefs offense, the most in the NFL according to 4for4.com. Losing the team’s first, fourth, fifth and sixth most-targeted players leaves 56.6% of the opportunities in a high-frequency passing game on the table, the second-highest percentage in the league.
Mahomes ranked top-five in pass attempts each of the past two seasons and there’s no reason to believe Kansas City’s offense will go away from its half-a-billion-dollar quarterback, especially given its offseason additions. Just like when the Chiefs exhibited a demonstrable need for offensive line help after the 2021 Super Bowl and went all in to address the problem, the team brought in a slew of pass catchers with diverse skill sets to fill the gap left by Hill and others. And unlike some other teams that lost a lot at receiver, Kansas City retained the best tight end in the league, Travis Kelce, as Mahomes’s safety net.
JuJu Smith-Schuster
The former Steelers receiver is on a one-year, incentive-laden “prove it” deal with the Chiefs. Smith-Schuster signed with the Chiefs this offseason after five seasons in Pittsburgh. He played just five games last season due to a shoulder injury, though he returned for the postseason.
The best year of Smith-Schuster’s career came in 2018 when he accumulated 1,426 yards and seven touchdowns on 111 catches and finished as a WR1 for the first and only time. Smith-Schuster benefited from defenses devoting so much attention to Antonio Brown, and the next two seasons of his career showed he is a strong second option, but not necessarily a No. 1 receiver. In 2020, his only 16-game sample size without Brown, he caught 97 balls on 128 targets, racked up 831 yards and had a career-high nine touchdowns.
He may be atop the Chiefs depth chart at receiver, but Kelce is still the go-to option in this offense. The attention paid to Kelce will allow Smith-Schuster to thrive in the margins once again.
He’s a possession receiver whose yards per catch, yards after catch and average depth of target have steadily declined since entering the league. That dropoff is at least partially due to injuries and poor quarterback play. Volume is vital to Smith-Schuster’s game–death by 1,000 paper cuts rather than snagging a few deep balls. His longest play in 2020 went for 31 yards. Fortunately for him, there’s plenty of targets to go around in the K.C. offense. My colleague Michael Fabiano has Smith-Schuster ranked 31st among WRs in PPR, a sign of cautious optimism for a return to relevance.
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Marquez Valdes-Scantling
The idea of MVS in fantasy has always been more appealing than his week-to-week performance. Valdes-Scantling has never finished among the top 50 players at his position despite playing with Aaron Rodgers for the first four years of his career. Now he gets to catch passes from another one of the best quarterbacks in football, perhaps this time as more of a focal point as Mahomes and Reid look for Hill’s deep ball replacement.
Volume has always been the issue for MVS. He’s never seen 75 targets in a single season or caught 40 passes. His career average of 17.5 yards per catch is enticing, though. Valdes-Scantling led the NFL in yards per catch (20.1), had 690 yards and hauled in six touchdowns in 2020, all career-highs. Hill’s highest yards per catch average is 17.0, set in 2018, and his career average is 13.8.
Though MVS never shouldered a hefty workload, he’s been largely healthy throughout his career. He played 16 games each of his first three seasons before succumbing to injuries last year when he missed six regular-season games (hamstring) and Green Bay’s playoff game (back). With the departure of Pringle, who led the Chiefs in average depth of target each of the past three seasons, there is room for Valdes-Scantling, a more proven deep ball threat, to assume the speedster role in this offense.
Skyy Moore
The Chiefs used the 54th pick to select Moore, a 5’10”, 195-pound receiver who had first-round upside and fell to Day 2 of the draft. Moore is a quick, slight target who exploded his junior year at Western Michigan, a school that produced fellow NFL receivers Corey Davis and Dee Eskridge in the last few years. He compiled 1,292 yards and 10 touchdowns on 95 receptions as a junior. Those numbers surpassed what he accomplished in his freshman and sophomore seasons combined and he elected to declare for the draft early.
Moore is the highest drafted Chiefs receiver since Dwayne Bowe was picked in the first round in 2007 (Hardman came off the board at pick 56 in 2019). In a deep receiver class, Moore was the 13th wideout drafted and he capped off a run on pass catchers in the middle of the second round. It may take time for Moore to see a meaningful number of snaps. There’s the leap in competition from the MAC to not only the NFL, but its toughest division, the AFC West, to consider. There will also be a battle for targets given what Kansas City has returning in the form of Kelce and Hardman as well as the veterans it added this offseason. Moore is also dealing with a hamstring injury that has him limited in OTAs.
While there are concerns about his immediate impact, there’s plenty to love about Moore’s game and potential fit with the Chiefs. Reid spoke glowingly of his new weapon at rookie minicamp: “The thing I liked in college was he was strong, physically strong. The things they did with him, he is very good at, so whether it was the short-intermediate game, there’s the long game. He could do it all.” Fabiano dubbed Moore a “winner” based on his landing spot, acknowledging the uphill battle toward consistent volume.
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Returning Players
The Chiefs did not completely overhaul their group of pass-catchers. Kelce, who led the team in targets four of the past five years, and Hardman, who has made strides in each of his first three seasons in the league, are both back.
It’s fair to pencil in Kelce, who’s on a six-year streak of 1,000-yard seasons, for more targets, yards and red-zone opportunities as Mahomes’s most familiar option. Despite heading into his age 33 season, Kelce is still Fabiano’s No. 1 tight end in PPR.
Hardman had a career year in 2021, turning 83 targets into 59 catches for 693 yards—all career highs. His volume might not necessarily increase next season with newfound competition for targets, but his familiarity with Mahomes and some positive touchdown regression will do him well.
Williams was one of the top receiving backs in the NFL a season ago and his backfield targets should now get funneled to 2020 first-round pick Clyde Edwards-Helaire, if his health allows it. CEH has not yet shown the passing game potential he flashed at LSU. He caught 55 passses in his final college season, which is as many as he has in two seasons in the NFL. If Edwards-Helaire can stay on the field (he’s missed 10 games in two years), the lion’s share of K.C.'s league-high 77 vacated running back targets are his for the taking.
