Editor’s Note: Welcome to the second annual installment of “The Replacements,” an SI fantasy football research series focused on vacated volume and projecting how teams will replace production year-to-year. This offseason, we’re looking at the six teams with the highest percentage of available targets and the six teams with the highest percentage of available carries heading into 2023.
- The Replacements: Houston Texans | Carolina Panthers | Green Bay Packers
Three years after the Packers spent a first-round pick on Jordan Love, it’s time for him to take over under center.
Since that surprise selection in the 2020 draft, Green Bay made two NFC championship games and Aaron Rodgers won a pair of MVPs while Love has just one career start to his name. Rodgers was traded to the Jets this offseason, which will allow Love to finally succeed the future Hall of Fame quarterback under the bright lights of Lambeau Field.
Rodgers brought a few of his former teammates with him to New York; Allen Lazard signed with the Jets before the trade was even official and Randall Cobb followed suit soon after the deal was done. Lazard led the Packers in receiving yards in 2022 and Cobb was plenty involved in the passing game, too. Tight end Robert Tonyan also signed with the division-rival Bears in free agency, meaning three of Green Bay’s six most-targeted pass-catchers departed in one offseason.
The Packers are second in the NFL in total vacated targets (258) and third in percentage of vacated targets (47.7%), according to 4for4.com. They have a lot of opportunities up for grabs, most of which will be funneled to returning receivers, though some will go to the rookies the front office selected to build around Love.
Veteran running back Aaron Jones is back in the fold as are second-year receivers Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs, second- and fourth-round picks in the 2022 draft, respectively. Green Bay opted to add skill-position players in the draft rather than on the open market and selected receiver Jayden Reed and tight end Luke Musgrave in the second round and tight end Tucker Craft in the third.
This coming season will be Matt LaFleur’s first as a head coach without Rodgers. The Packers’ offenses in his four years at the helm have been roughly middle of the pack in pass percentage (56-60%). They had the best offense in the league in 2020 and were elite again in 2021, though they took a massive step back last season.
An offense led by Love could bear fantasy value, though the sportsbooks aren’t overly optimistic about Green Bay’s playoff hopes with a win total set at 7.5. Perhaps LaFleur leans heavily on the running back duo of Jones and AJ Dillon or the young receivers shine with Love, a three-year understudy for one of the most talented passers the game has ever seen.
These are the players who will fill the gaps in the Packers’ offense in 2023, which will have a new QB1 for the first time in well over a decade.
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Christian Watson
Watson certainly made the most of his opportunities as a rookie and he exploded late in the season after a slow start. He had 88 yards through the first six games of his career and then burst onto the scene with 107 yards and three touchdowns on four catches against the Cowboys in Week 10. That began a ridiculous run in which Watson scored eight total touchdowns in a four-week span — he was the WR3 for Weeks 10-13 and the WR9 from week 10 on.
That scoring production may be difficult to replicate, but it’s clear that Watson staked his claim as a big-play receiver with an average depth of target of 13.8 yards. He can certainly expect to be more involved week-to-week in the passing game in 2023 — he never saw more than eight passes come his way, even after he broke out. Watson finished fifth on the team in targets (66) and receptions (42), yet his 611 receiving yards were second only behind Lazard and fifth-most among first-year players.
His ability to create a connection with Love deep down the field will dictate whether he can deliver on his WR22 average draft position. It’s possible — even likely — that Watson makes fewer trips to the end zone but his opportunities skyrocket as he vies for the WR1 spot in the offense in his sophomore season.
Aaron Jones
Jones is heading into his age-29 season, and the history of the position says that he should be on the decline. However, he just recorded his fifth consecutive top-10 finish at the position despite scoring just two rushing touchdowns. How? In part, because he vacuumed up a large percentage of Davante Adams’s vacated volume and set career-highs in targets (72) and receptions (59) and added five scores through the air. He could do the same yet again, this time for Love, who might find dumping the ball off to Jones to be a helpful safety net in his first year as a starter.
Only seven running backs saw more targets than Jones in 2022. He worked very close to the line of scrimmage as his average depth of target (0.2 yards) was a career low and his 6.7 yards per catch were his fewest since his rookie year. Still, volume is the name of the game and Jones, who has held off Dillon as the lead back in Green Bay, should see his target count tick up for the third season in a row.
Romeo Doubs
Doubs, who was drafted two rounds after Watson, was marginally more involved than his fellow first-year wideout as a rookie on a per-game basis. His best outing was Week 3 against the Buccaneers when he caught all eight of his targets for 73 yards and a score. Doubs had two other games with eight or more looks and also a handful in which he disappeared: Zero catches on four targets against the Commanders and one reception on one target and no catches on two looks in separate games against the Lions. An ankle injury sidelined Doubs for four weeks late in the year but he was immediately involved once he returned.
He worked the intermediate area of the field more often than Watson, with an ADOT of 9.4, though he still had seven receptions of 20 or more yards, including one in each of his first three career games. Doubs may hold some value in PPR formats but his production could be capped in a low-volume passing offense.
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Jayden Reed
The draft capital Green Bay spent on Reed is notable, especially one year after selecting Watson and Doubs. He had a productive career at Michigan State after transferring from Western Michigan and his best season was as a redshirt junior when he racked up 1,026 yards on 59 catches to go along with 10 touchdowns. Reed also housed two punt returns that year and earned All-America honors as an all-purpose player.
Reed has the potential to become Love’s second option. He’s already a projected starter and he should see plenty of looks working out of the slot. The last few years have shown that rookie receivers are entirely capable of making an immediate impact and it’s not like Love is that much more familiar with Watson and Doubs than he is with Reed.
Other Receivers
This is where it’s time to bring up the rookie tight ends with the caveat that it’s extremely rare that they make much of a fantasy impact. A knee injury limited Musgrave, the 42nd pick out of Oregon State, to two games his final season in college. At 6’6”, 250 pounds, he profiles as a dynamic pass-catching threat and he’s been running with the first team at OTAs. Musgrave topped out at 304 yards in a low-volume Beavers passing offense but he could see an uptick in involvement in the pros.
Kraft posted more impressive numbers across his three years at South Dakota State. His best year was 2021, when he racked up 773 yards and six touchdowns on 65 catches but he was less involved as a junior when an ankle injury limited him to 11 games. Kraft profiles as the better blocker of the two but they could share the field, especially considering Green Bay was in 12 personnel so often in 2022.
Summary
If Jones sets another career-high in receptions and/or receiving yards, he’ll prove to be a massive value in the fifth round. And as far as the receivers go, Watson (WR22) is going well ahead of Doubs (WR61) and Reed (WR69). There’s no guarantee that Love supports even one fantasy-relevant pass-catcher, let alone three. For that reason, you might be better off shopping in the bargain bin and taking a shot on Doubs or Reed and seeing what they give you. According to an ESPN report from early June, Doubs has been making his case as Love’s favorite receiver in OTAs. Try not to read too much into early-summer hype cycles, but it’s at least a promising development for the second-year receiver.
