If the first few days of the 2026 World Cup have taught us anything, it is that predicting how the tournament will pan out is a fool’s errand. Cape Verde were not meant to shut out Spain, many people’s favourites. Australia were not meant to beat a talented Turkey. Morocco were not meant to match the might of Brazil.
We can still try to map out the draw, of course. Theoretically, there should be a material benefit in topping each group. Group winners will be rewarded in one of two ways by Fifa’s new 48-team format: either they will get to play one of the eight third-placed finishers in the round of the 32; or they will meet a second-placed finisher but then avoid facing any other group winners until the quarter-finals at the earliest.
