Arsenal: P18 Pts 40 GD+20
The case for When Martin Ødegaard crossed in the very last knockings at Luton on 5 December, there was an inevitability about Declan Rice’s headed winner. Not only because Rice had done it before – remember his decisive 96th-minute goal against Manchester United on 3 September – but because Arsenal have made a habit of this type of thing; the never‑say‑die pushes that advertise the mentality of champions. They can also count the late winners against Manchester City and Brentford, together with an 84th‑minute equaliser against Chelsea. What underscores the notion that it will be Arsenal’s year in the Premier League is the foundations that Mikel Arteta has put in place. Rice’s signing in midfield has been huge; he helps the team so much defensively, especially against the counterattack, bringing control, the buzzword of the season so far. The defence itself has grown, developing an understated security, with William Saliba central to everything. Then there is the greater strength in depth compared with last season, when a surprise challenge ran out of steam in April, the pronounced threat on set pieces and the ability of Ødegaard and Bukayo Saka to make things happen.
The case against The biggest reason is called Manchester City; the feeling, which can be detected in the corridors of power at Arsenal, that the defending champions are primed to put together an eviscerating run over the second half of the season. As they do. Apart from that, can Gabriel Jesus score enough goals as the No 9? Can the club handle the increase in expectations? (Against that, the pressure is always immense at Arsenal.) Are they as fluent in attacking terms as they were last season? And will Arteta’s manoeuvring of the goalkeeper’s position away from Aaron Ramsdale to David Raya carry a sting? DH
Festive fixtures Thursday: West Ham (h), Sunday: Fulham (a)
Liverpool: P18 Pts 39 GD+21
The case for The league table, the consistency of results and a five‑point advantage over Manchester City (who have a game in hand) are good enough reasons to start with, although there are more factors behind Liverpool’s recovery as title contenders. Senior players who know what it takes to win the Premier League and capitalise on a drop-off by City – Mohamed Salah, Virgil van Dijk, Alisson and Trent Alexander‑Arnold – have taken the failure last season to qualify for the Champions League as a personal affront to lead Liverpool’s revival. A new-look, high-grade midfield has settled faster and more cohesively than perhaps even Jürgen Klopp envisaged. The squad has the depth in most departments and a range of attacking options that are the envy of many Premier League clubs, and Liverpool have an ability to rescue the occasional off-day.
The case against Dramatic comebacks and late winners are hallmarks of champions – especially when delivered with 10 men – but Liverpool have needed them frequently in a season when, with the exception of the home win over Aston Villa and the Carabao Cup rout of West Ham, they have rarely controlled an opponent or a game from start to finish. Liverpool are a team in transition, and at times it shows. Results against other members of the so-called big six need to improve. Liverpool are bottom of that mini-league and the only side not to beat a “big six” rival this season, having drawn with Chelsea, Manchester City, Manchester United and Arsenal and lost to Tottenham. With Joël Matip out for the rest of the season Liverpool could be seriously stretched by another injury in central defence. Klopp claims a solution is unlikely to be found in the January transfer window. AH
Festive fixtures Boxing Day: Burnley (a), Monday 1 January: Newcastle (h)
Aston Villa: P18 Pts 39 GD+16
The case for Villa are free of expectation but, make no mistake, Unai Emery, demanding at the best of times, is aware of how well placed they are. Villa Park has become a fortress, with Villa winning 15 of their past 16 home games. Emery has played down comments from peers billing his side title contenders but his starting XI has proven capable of toppling the best. Emiliano Martínez is an elite goalkeeper, their midfield axis of Boubacar Kamara, John McGinn and Douglas Luiz is one of the finest in the division and they have pace to burn in talisman Ollie Watkins and forwards Moussa Diaby and Leon Bailey. Unlike most of their rivals, Villa can focus almost solely on the league until March, when their Europa Conference League adventure restarts in the last 16. Aside from an FA Cup trip to Middlesbrough in January, they can go full steam ahead in pursuit of a first league title since 1981.
The case against Can Villa handle the noise? For most of this squad, a title race represents new territory. The obvious concern is whether Emery has enough strength in reserve. For example, when Leander Dendoncker entered against Arsenal, Villa’s grip loosened. Watkins has started every league game and although Jhon Durán has impressed in glimpses there is no like-for-like replacement. The same goes for Martínez. At the same time, Villa have shown this season that they can absorb the absence of key players such as Tyrone Mings and Emi Buendía. Perhaps Sheffield United’s dogged display last Friday, when Villa seemed to run out of ideas against a low block and almost ended up empty‑handed, will provide a blueprint for others in how to stifle Emery’s winning machine. BF
Festive fixtures Boxing Day: Manchester United (a), Saturday: Burnley (h)
Tottenham: P18 Pts 36 GD+13
The case for Nobody thought that Tottenham would feature in this kind of article at the beginning of the season given what had happened the last time out: the implosion under Antonio Conte; also the sale of Harry Kane in August. By the same token, nobody thought that Spurs would be top of the table after 10 games but they were, having made their best start since 1960-61. There was a statistic that said they became the 13th team to have 26 points or more after 10 matches of a Premier League season; six of the previous 12 went on to win the title, four were runners-up, Arsenal finished third in 2007-08 and Newcastle were sixth in 1994-95. In other words, make this kind of start and history says you are almost always in it for the long haul. Spurs had a five‑game wobble thereafter but it said everything about the buy‑in which Ange Postecoglou has generated that there was no soul‑searching/mutiny. The manager’s bold style has found a neat fit with players and fans alike; the opening 10 games showed what is possible when everybody is available.
The case against Spurs are at the beginning of their project under Postecoglou and lack the needed quality in all areas and, moreover, the strength in depth – even if they have no European football to clutter their schedule. Given the club’s return of one trophy from Daniel Levy’s 22-year chairmanship (the 2008 League Cup), it is surely too much to ask for them to suddenly win the biggest of them all in domestic terms. DH
Festive fixtures Thursday: Brighton (a), Sunday: Bournemouth (h)
Manchester City: P17 Pts 34 GD+20
The case for At a club built to win and keep winning Pep Guardiola’s relentless need to do so has landed five titles in six years and a determination to “keep being there” (a mantra of the Catalan’s) is the fuel that propels his players, too. Seven points from the past 18 is not championship-retaining form but after Manchester City’s Club World Cup triumph Guardiola can draw on three years ago. Then, after a point at West Brom in mid-December and sitting five behind Tottenham, Guardiola turned the team around and a 15-game winning streak motored them to the title. Despite the recent slump the gap to Arsenal is only six points with a game in hand. Oh, and Kevin De Bruyne, missing since the opening minutes of the season, is due back soon.
The case against How to replace a treble-winning captain such as Ilkay Gündogan was the problem Guardiola wrestled with in the close season. His answer was Mateo Kovacic, who is not in the same cultured class, and City also lost a key dressing-room influence. Riyad Mahrez, too, left and his successor, Matheus Nunes, has thus far been peripheral. Zoom out and motivating a squad which has been the champions of the past three seasons is a further considerable challenge for Guardiola. JJ
Festive fixtures Wednesday: Everton (a), Saturday: Sheffield United (h)
