Reactionary populism is now the biggest obstacle to tackling climate change. With outright climate denial no longer an option, populist politicians have increasingly positioned themselves as climate doubters and delayers, and this new approach is proving to be quite insidious. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warns that global greenhouse-gas emissions must peak within three years to keep the Paris agreement's 1.5° Celsius target in reach; by slowing effective action, the tactics of today's populists are becoming an existential threat.
This trend is reversible, but it is tenacious. Following former US president Donald Trump's dismantling of America's climate commitments, the Biden administration has managed to pass landmark climate legislation despite notable headwinds. But opportunities for populist climate spoilers remain. A recent study in Nature shows that, even though supporters of climate policies vastly outnumber their opponents nationwide, most Americans believe the opposite to be true. Given this "false social reality", the climate legislation promises to be a wedge issue in next month's midterm elections.
Perhaps even more significant is Brazil, where reactionary populism threatens to become normalised under President Jair Bolsonaro. It is no coincidence that Steve Bannon, Mr Trump's former chief strategist, sees Brazil's election as an inflexion point for the international system: in his words, the "second most important election in the world". Bannon-style tactics have prevailed in many countries in recent years, poisoning the public discourse on issues such as immigration, reproductive rights and vaccines.
