It has become more clear in the past few weeks who will make the cut as prime ministerial candidates of several major parties as the country begins the countdown to the next general election.
The clearest signal emanated from the Bhumjaithai Party, which has said time and again that its leader, Anutin Charnvirakul, will be the party's only choice.
The party has rallied behind Mr Anutin as Bhumjaithai has continued to be a magnet for defectors from other parties. It has bagged more than 30 former MPs from coalition and opposition parties so far.
Bhumjaithai, according to an observer, is one of the parties least troubled by internal bickering. It stood solidly by Mr Anutin, who is hailed in many quarters as possessing the trappings of a future prime minister.
Party spokesman, Paradorn Prisnanantakul, has maintained that the party has always been unequivocal about its intention to nominate Mr Anutin as its sole prime ministerial candidate.
"There should be one choice and none in reserve," he said. The law, however, permits a qualifying party -- that which has won at least 25 House seats -- to put forward up to three candidates.
"We're ready to be the core party forming the next government, and so is our leader in taking on the prime minister post," Mr Paradorn added.
According to some political scientists, Bhumjaithai has a decent chance of taking the next poll by storm since it is in no danger of being dissolved, having managed to dodge major allegations during its time in office.
It is handling some A-grade ministries -- primarily those enjoying substantial administrative authority and allocated a large slice of the national budget.
Bhumjaithai is also endowed with resources and looks after its MPs and members well, which explains why they rarely break ranks or defy the party line.
The political experts agreed that Bhumjaithai has shown itself to be flexible when it comes to establishing a political stand. It has not been embroiled in bitter disputes with any other party, except perhaps the fellow coalition Democrat Party over Bhumjaithai's cannabis policy.
Bhumjaithai is generally on talking terms with most other parties, making it an ideal suitor for any political bloc in forming a government. However, the experts noted the party might be at risk of going overboard with its flexibility and coming across as lacking in ideology.
It has been predicted that Bhumjaithai might capture between 70-80 seats in the next polls, second only to Pheu Thai. However, that may be a conservative estimate as many of the defectors the party has welcomed could be strong contenders to snatch constituencies away from Pheu Thai.
Over to the ruling Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP), which has haemorrhaged most MPs to Bhumjaithai, the uncertainty surrounding who will be its prime ministerial candidate was only recently cleared up, if not by default.
For a while, it was heavily speculated that Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha would seek a second term as a parliament-elected premier on the party's ticket. However, Gen Prayut not only kept mum but appeared to distance himself from the issue, creating the impression he was seriously having second thoughts about retaining his links with the PPRP.
Gen Prayut may have been nominated by the PPRP to be prime minister in the previous election. However, he held no party membership and never attended its meetings, prompting some party politicians to accuse him of being aloof.
Tension over the prime minister candidate tussle came to a head when Mingkwan Sangsuwan, former leader of the New Economics Party (NEP), pledged his allegiance to the PPRP.
At a press conference the PPRP held to announce Mr Mingkwan's induction into the party, Mr Mingkwan raised eyebrows when he declared himself the PPRP's prime minister candidate, leaving everyone in the party, including its leader and Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwon who was sitting next to him, visibly dumbstruck.
As it was beginning to sink in that Gen Prayut may have set his sights on the United Thai Nation (UTN) Party, the PPRP decided to break its silence over the candidate issue.
Paiboon Nititawan, the deputy party leader, said the PPRP would nominate Gen Prawit as its sole prime ministerial candidate, citing suitability and an overwhelming endorsement from party executives.
In the process, he also took a swipe at Mr Mingkwan, saying no one in the party went along with his self-nomination for prime minister and that Mr Mingkwan should not feel he was being belittled.
"Mr Mingkwan should know what's what. Some things are simply out of one's own league," he said.
You can't have everything
The next general election, scheduled to take place in May, is widely seen as deposed prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra's last chance to return to Thailand.
Around this time last year, the ex-premier announced, during a ClubHouse chat under his alias Tony Woodsome, a plan to end his self-imposed exile and return home in 2022 as "a gift for Thai people".
His homecoming announcement followed the appointment of his youngest daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra as Pheu Thai's chief adviser on public participation and innovations in October 2021.
Ms Paetongtarn's role in the main opposition party gave rise to speculation that she would be running for her father's old job and help fulfil his dream of returning home.
Thaksin fled the country in 2008 shortly before being sentenced by the Supreme Court's Criminal Division for Holders of Political Positions to two years in prison for abusing his power as prime minister by assisting his then-wife, Khunying Potjaman, in the purchase of a prime plot of land at a heavy discount.
Despite things not going as planned, Thaksin's homecoming plot is still in play, according to a source in Pheu Thai who is close to the ousted premier.
Ms Paetongtarn, who vowed to lead Pheu Thai to a landslide victory, has steadily gained popularity across the country, and the party is confident that it can keep the momentum going until election day.
While it remains to be seen if the party can clinch a landslide win or 250 out of 500 House seats up for grabs to form a single-party government, Pheu Thai will definitely come first in the polls and have a mandate to form a coalition government, according to the source.
Following Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha's decision to join the United Thai Nation (UTN) Party, a Pheu Thai-Palang Pracharath Party coalition government has become a post-election scenario.
The ruling party plans to overhaul its executive board, with its leader Gen Prawit Wongsuwon likely to be nominated as the party's sole prime ministerial candidate at the next election.
A Pheu Thai-PPRP alliance will be possible if the UTN wins too few seats to allow it to nominate Gen Prayut for prime minister, according to the Pheu Thai source.
If Pheu Thai and the PPRP have more than 250 House seats combined, the Senate can't afford to go against the people's will and support a prime ministerial candidate of another party.
Moreover, Gen Prawit's connections with the senators are as strong, if not stronger than Gen Prayut's, as the PPRP leader was also part of the now-defunct National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) that appointed them, said the source.
"It is either Gen Prayut or Gen Prawit [to be the next prime minister] because they both command the support of the Senate. The other candidates don't stand a chance, not even those from Pheu Thai."
Under the law, a party that wins at least 25 House seats is eligible to nominate up to three prime ministerial candidates.
"When Pheu Thai's goal is to be the government, the party is likely to back Gen Prawit for the premiership -- unless it can garner 376 votes from among the MPs, which is extremely difficult to do, and go for the premiership without support from the Senate," said the source.
Likewise, the next election will also be a high-stakes contest for Gen Prayut, who announced his intention to seek another term in office, although he will only be able to serve half the four-year term due to the eight-year term limit.
Given the remarks by Prime Minister's Office Minister Thanakorn Wangboonkongchana, Gen Prayut is expected to dissolve the House of Representatives shortly before the end of its tenure in late March.
This is to ensure MPs have enough time to defect to another party if they stay on to complete their term.
Under the election law, election candidates must have joined their party at least 90 days before polling day. But in case of a House dissolution, the deadline for MPs to move to another party is at least 30 days before election day.
A number of MPs from the ruling PPRP, including Mr Thanakorn, are expected to follow Gen Prayut to the UTN once the House is dissolved.
The defection of MPs from the PPRP or other parties to the UTN is pivotal to Gen Prayut's return to power, and the more the better, according to political observers.
So the question is -- how many political bigwigs can Gen Prayut draw to the UTN so it can put his name in the premier-nomination hat?
