Newcastle United are in the box seat when it comes to qualifying for the Champions League and ending the season in the Premier League's top four.
A quick glance at the Premier League table certainly has Newcastle in contention and the bare facts of the matter are, only Liverpool and Manchester City have sent the Magpies crashing to the top-flight canvas with bruising defeats this term. But what will it really take this term for the club's relatively new owners to enjoy dining at Europe's top table in the promised land of UEFA's executive elite club?
The Magpies are currently four points behind Tottenham Hotspur but - crucially - have two matches in hand on the London club and must face them at St James' Park in what may be a decisive afternoon. With 13 games left United sit on 44 points but are behind the class of 2003, the last time the Magpies qualified for the Champions League, by four points at the same 25-game stage.
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It was in the 2002/03 season under Bobby Robson that Newcastle finished third on 69 points and it remains to be seen how many points are required this term. Whether 69 points would be enough this season is up for debate in a competitive Premier League campaign.
Notably, when Newcastle finished fourth in 2001/02 they earned 71 points and performed better than the following year. But looking at more recent history, they may not have to get past the 70-point mark if they are to land a coveted top four spot and book their places at Europe's top table next season.
True, last season Spurs needed 71 points to finish fourth as they fended off a late challenge from North London neighbours Arsenal. But in 2021, Chelsea got over the line with 67 points to pip Leicester City.
The lowest tally of points in the last decade to finish in the top four would have been 63 in 2020 when Chelsea got there with 66 on the board and their closest rivals Leicester yielded just 62. In 2019, Spurs got into the top four with 71 points again and in 2018 Liverpool did it with 75 although just 71 would have been enough to finish above Chelsea on 70.
The highest the bar has been set in the past decade was in 2017 when Liverpool required 76 points to pip Arsenal with 75. Regardless of what may or may not be enough, to reach the top four Newcastle still have plenty of work to do.
When asked how many wins Newcastle may need to get there Eddie Howe simply said: "We have 13 games to go and we want to try to win every game." Over at Spurs Antonio Conte says: "We have to try to do our best and for sure I repeat for us to finish in the top four is like winning the Premier League. It happened last season and I spoke about a miracle."
Newcastle could have done with Spurs continuing their current Champions League adventure but they were knocked out by a bang-average AC Milan team last week. Like the Magpies, Spurs have a clean run at nothing but Premier League fixtures between now and May with interest in all other competitions over.
It's not only a change in the narrative for Newcastle compared to the last 10 seasons. One of them, 2016/17 was spent in the Championship, the other nine were spent fighting relegation with Alan Pardew and Rafa Benitez managing 10th-placed finishes in 2014 and 2018.
This is also new territory for Howe and his backroom staff with ninth place their highest with Bournemouth on 46 points. Unlike his time with the Cherries though, Howe has been equipped with a £250million war chest to help deliver one of the top-flight's bigger prizes.
Nine more wins from Newcastle's last 13 matches would put them on the 71-point mark that got Spurs into the Champions League in 2021 and 2019. And looking at the lower end of the scale, six wins and a draw from 13 games would be enough to the 63 points that would have been enough in 2020.
Of course, every season is different but if the bar is raised as high as it was in 2017 with Liverpool that would leave Newcastle with a demanding haul of 11 wins from 13 matches to put them on 77 points and beyond the Reds' ridiculously high 76 point total six years ago.
As for the verdict of the bookmakers? As things stand, despite Newcastle's games in hand, the majority of bookies feel that Spurs will edge fourth place and the Magpies will finish fifth.
But some see it as too close to call and Newcastle and Spurs are both 6/4 to finish fourth with Spread Ex and Sporting Index while Betfair and Paddy Power have the Magpies and the The Lilywhites at 8/5.
Whatever way you look at it, Newcastle have to drastically turn their form around from the last few weeks. United picked up a much needed win over Wolves at the weekend but had picked up just nine points from an available 21 in their last seven games.
If Newcastle picked up the same 24-point haul from their first 13 matches in the last 13 games of the season, they'd finish the season on 68 points. That wouldn't have been enough last season or in 2019, 2018, or 2017 but would have got them there in 2021, 2020 and 2016.
Victory over Nottingham Forest is crucial and then it will be time to take stock ahead of the last dozen games for Howe and his squad during the international break.
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