The Players Championship 2026 Betting Tips: Bazza's Best Bets At TPC Sawgrass

The 17th hole at TPC Sawgrass for The Players Championship, with the Bazza's Best Bets badge next to iconic island green.

This is one of my favourite betting weeks of the year, as I have successfully backed the winner of the Players Championship in each of the past two seasons.Much of that success has come from following a very specific model that centres around the correlation between the Arnold Palmer Invitational, The Players and the Majors.When doing my research, I like to narrow the field at The Players Championship down to a pool of those who played well at Bay Hill the week before, are relatively accurate off the tee/approaching the green and have consistently contended on the Major stage.The Players Championship might not be a Major, but it's an event that has been dominated by the best of the best in world golf for some time.With four expert tips offered in this column, I am buoyant about the chances of a hat-trick of wins in this event, but who do you fancy as the best bet for The Players Championship? Drop me a comment below and share your tips...

The Players Championship Betting Tips 2026

Collin Morikawa is on his way back to his best... which could spell danger for the field this week (Image credit: Getty Images)

Top Tip: Collin Morikawa (+2400) To Win @ BetMGMCollin Morikawa is back!The serial winner who claimed four titles between 2020 and 2021, including two Majors, sealed a hard-fought win at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am last month and has shown no signs of slowing since.A 7th place finish at the Genesis Invitational was followed by a 5th place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational last week, but his numbers also perfectly fit the model of a winner at TPC Sawgrass - as a flusher who hits plenty of fairways and is super precise on approach to the green.Morikawa ranks 5th for Strokes Gained: Approach and 9th for Driving Accuracy on the PGA Tour this season and even ranked 13th for SG: Putting last week at Bay Hill - which has been an area of weakness for him in the past.A 10th place finish at The Players Championship in 2025 was his best of his career in this event, but I would certainly not be surprised to see a player of his stature win here when 10 of the last 12 winners have been Major Champions.

Next Best: Ludvig Aberg (+2500) To Win @ BetMGMLudvig Aberg has been trending nicely into the meaty part of the 2026 PGA Tour schedule, recovering from a slow illness-affected start to post some very encouraging numbers of late.His last three starts read T37 - T20 - T3, showcasing the improvement over time as we head into The Players, but his performance stats are also on the up.At the Arnold Palmer Invitational last week, Aberg ranked 3rd for driving accuracy and 3rd for SG: Approach, but he also ranked 6th for driving distance and inside the top-25 for his short game.That all-round brilliance is closer to the Aberg that we know from years gone by, but when you consider that he was 8th at TPC Sawgrass in 2024 you can see how credible his claim is for yet another big PGA Tour win.

Ludvig Aberg is trending into form after a slow start to 2026 (Image credit: Getty Images)

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The Value Bet: Cameron Young (+3500) To Win @ BetMGMLet's address the elephant in the room... Cameron Young's record at The Players does not make for good reading - but I like him from a betting perspective regardless.Young finished T7 at the Genesis Invitational and T3 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, so similarly to Morikawa and Aberg is arriving in plenty of form.With a great balance between power and accuracy, this course should theoretically suit Young's game, but to be honest he doesn't really have a weak area in his game.His first PGA Tour title came at the Wyndham Championship, which is played on a track with strong correlation to TPC Sawgrass, and his form at the back end of 2025 highlighted that his best is yet to come.With a great record at the API, which we know has strong correlation with The Players, I would be surprised if Young didn't crack TPC Sawgrass at some point.

Cameron Young might not have the best record at TPC Sawgrass, but he has the skillset to compete at The Players Championship (Image credit: Getty Images)

The 'Heart Over Head' Bet: Viktor Hovland (+3300) To Win @ BetMGMAside from my much-publicised desire to see Viktor Hovland win a Major, I'd also love to see him claim this prestigious title at TPC Sawgrass.Hovland has two top-13 finishes in four PGA Tour starts in 2026 and has only shot one over-par round in 16.His performance stats for this season also loosely fit the model, ranking 13th for SG: Approach and 29th for driving accuracy, but as outlined in the sub-header this is more of a feel pick... however that doesn't stop me loving his chances this week.

Golf Monthly's Tipping Record: Winners Since January 2025

Player	Event	Price	GM Staff Member
Richard Mansell	Porsche Singapore Classic 2025	+6000	Matt Cradock
Sami Valimaki	RSM Classic 2025	+5500	Jonny Leighfield
Patrick Reed	Dubai Desert Classic 2026	+4000	Elliott Heath
Eugenio Chacarra	Hero Indian Open 2025	+3500	Elliott Heath
Sergio Garcia	LIV Golf Hong Kong 2025	+2200	Jonny Leighfield
Ludvig Aberg	Genesis Invitational 2025	+2200	Matt Cradock
Laurie Canter	Bapco Energies Bahrain Championship 2025	+2200	Jonny Leighfield/Matt Cradock
Matt Fitzpatrick	DP World Tour Championship 2025	+1600	Matt Cradock
David Puig	BMW Australian PGA Championship 2025	+1400	Jonny Leighfield
Tommy Fleetwood	Tour Championship 2025	+1200	Jonny Leighfield
Ben Griffin	World Wide Technology Championship 2025	+1200	Baz Plummer/Jonny Leighfield
Joaquin Niemann	LIV Golf UK 2025	+900	Matt Cradock
Tyrrell Hatton	Hero Dubai Desert Classic 2025	+900	Jonny Leighfield
Joaquin Niemann	LIV Golf Virginia 2025	+750	Jonny Leighfield
Rory McIlroy	The Masters 2025	+650	Baz Plummer
Tommy Fleetwood	DP World India Championship 2025	+650	Baz Plummer/Jonny Leighfield
Scottie Scheffler	PGA Championship 2025	+400	Matt Cradock/Elliott Heath
Rory McIlroy	Amgen Irish Open 2025	+400	Jonny Leighfield