After convincing Aucklanders of his merits, the new mayor needs to convince another difficult audience each month for three years – but who will make it onto that council table from the most highly contested wards?
Winning next week's public poll for the Auckland mayoralty is one thing. Winning the scores of votes to be held around the council table over the next three years could prove harder again for Wayne Brown or Efeso Collins.
One of the pair will bow out of Auckland council affairs next week as neither wants to be a councillor as their backup plan. The winner then needs to win the council votes, month-in, month-out.
As Brown keeps saying at public meetings, "it's all about the numbers".
The number the mayor will need, issue by issue, is 10 councillors in support.
Collins is an independent but backed by the Labour and Green parties and the council candidates of the left are largely either standing for Labour or City Vision, or leftish independent labels.
Brown is that rare figure in local politics, an actual independent. Solo, even. An electoral lone wolf. While he will have been given some backing to supplement his half million dollar personal outlay for the campaign, he is not regarded by the centre-right's flagwavers at Communities and Residents (C&R) as centre-right, and is regarded with a mixture of trepidation and distancing.
There are 20 councillors to be elected on Saturday October 8, who, with the mayor's vote added in, will need a total of 11 votes to pass whatever policies they are pushing.
Auckland Council has three councillor vacancies, and the obvious vacant mayoral chair, so there will be at least three new faces around the council table. As well as retiring Mayor Phil Goff, his deputy Bill Cashmore of the Franklin ward, councillor Cathy Casey of Albert-Eden, and Collins himself (from the Manukau ward) will be replaced next week.
Former Labour Party leader Goff's council had a number of close votes and even defeats for the mayor over his two terms, with a nominal 'B' team bloc of centre-right and disaffected figures challenging his support base.
Should Collins win the mayoralty, he would be expected to have better relationships or at least better knowledge of the personalities on the council. His two terms, however, have seen him criticised from within the council over his meeting attendances, even by some on the left. There will be others who will regard themselves as being better equipped local politicians than Collins and pride can play a divisive role within teams.
One senior incumbent, asked what sort of mayor Collins might make, offered a lukewarm "okay". Others, like Maungakiekie councillor Josephine Bartley, have effusively been pushing Collins' virtues on social media.
Harder still for a Collins mayoralty might be if some of the incumbent centre-left councillors find themselves tipped out in the postal vote over the next 10 days, and the centre-right gathers enough support to take a dozen or so votes into council battles.
At the final candidates' public debate on Wednesday evening at Somervell Presbyterian Church in Remuera, Collins recognised the mayor's one vote limitations. "You are going to need a collaborative approach."
The lines of division between the two broad camps of candidates seems to be on issues such as spending on public transport including light rail, cycle ways and consequent road disruptions, spending on measures to cut emissions and act on climate change, and the remaining size and cost of Auckland Council as an entity.
For Brown, building any kind of regular support will be a matter of starting from scratch. He has made plain his disapproval of much of the decision-making by the councillors who govern Auckland and their failure to understand 'the numbers' in the budget and overall debt situation, to take charge of council controlled companies like Auckland Transport, and for disrupting the lives of Aucklanders with unnecessary spending on works causing delays and frustration.
Brown is unlikely to be fussed about being liked by the 20 individuals he faces. But at the debate, he said he'd won over doctors eventually at the Auckland DHB when he was chair and despite the health board being made up of "a pretty random selection of people ... most have stayed friends of mine".
But he will need to be able to convince at least 10 councillors at a time to see the merit of his proposed 'fixes' for the city's problems.
One councillor who both Collins and Brown have spoken positively of during campaign events is the C&R candidate in the Ōrakei ward, Desley Simpson, who in this term chaired the finance committee.
Simpson is almost assured of returning to the council. She had a 16,000 majority in 2019 and faces one challenger, Faith Aaron, an independent but former Advance Party parliamentary candidate who has kept her anti-mandate views away from campaign material and avoided public questioning.
With Cashmore exiting, a Simpson deputy mayoralty would seem probable if she wants it, whomever becomes mayor. And Simpson is a networker and influencer within groups so would be a vital player in marshalling support and perhaps stopping less palatable proposals before they might head for defeat.
A number of wards could yet decide the balance on the council, and the possible success of whichever mayoral candidate prevails.
Newsroom has identified the following seven contests as likely to either be in play, or the result being pivotal. There is no way of scientifically predicting winners, but from previous election results, the local reputation and profile of candidates, and their level of volunteer backing, these wards' outcomes could make Collins or Brown's life easier or a whole lot harder.
Franklin
Franklin is another ward that will definitely provide a new councillor. Cashmore's vacant seat opens an intriguing one-on-one contest between the area's local board chair Andy Baker and All Black great Keven Mealamu. Baker is somebody the centre-right would be eyeing as a contender, as unlike Cashmore as deputy mayor loyally backing his left-of-centre mayor, he could represent another vote in their calculations. Baker's platform includes more equitable treatment of rural Auckland. His opponent is Mealamu, an independent talking up public service, who topped the local board poll in 2019 in Papakura. Mealamu has also talked about keeping rates low for the people of the ward.
Whau
C&R councillor Tracy Mulholland swapped from the Labour Party to C&R before the 2019 election and managed to unseat the Labour councillor Ross Clow, by the narrowest margin of the poll, 190 votes. This time, Labour and allies (there is no Green contender like last time) have united behind Kerrin Leoni (who has jumped across from her role on the Waitematā local board). She and Mulholland are the only candidates in Whau. Labour currently holds 5 of the 7 seats on the Whau local board.
Albert-Eden-Puketapu
The retirement of City Vision councillor Cathy Casey opens one of the two seats here. C&R-backed Christine Fletcher has held her seat since the dawn of the super city. She has been critical of Mayor Phil Goff's leadership, as well as moves by the central government that have affected the ward such as plans for light rail. In 2019 Casey, with her strong record and name recognition, beat third-placed Mark Thomas of C&R by 1700 votes. Collins would want her replaced by one of the CityVision-backed candidates – either Julie Fairey, head of the Puketāpapa Local Board, or running mate Redelond Tsounga. But the centre-right has hopes for Fletcher's running mate, Will McKenzie, a resource management lawyer and current local board member who wants to remove central government influence from council.
Maungakiekie-Tāmaki
Josephine Bartley, the Labour incumbent, wears her heart on her sleeve on social media, worrying about the big spending by her opponents (read, Troy Elliott of C&R). She is a wholehearted supporter of Collins, hosting him this week in her ward. In 2019, she won the seat previously held by the former National MP Denise Lee in mixed territory socio-economically, with an 1100-vote majority over C&R's Josh Beddell. Elliott, the son of a former National MP and a member of the neighbouring Ōrākei Local Board would need a mood away from the Labour brand and against the council's performance to tip the balance his way.
Howick
While neither Howick councillor is retiring, the re-emergence of former Pakuranga MP Maurice Williamson on the political stage could mean an upset for recently-elected incumbent Paul Young, who has formed an alliance with Bo Burns and a number of candidates running for local boards. Centre-right Williamson likely wouldn't be good news for Collins. Meanwhile, former United Future leader Damian Light also has his hat in the ring, wanting to see the council and CCOs communicating more clearly about their achievements and intentions with the public, which is a sentiment Collins has expressed before – suggesting they could co-operate. The other incumbent Sharon Stewart has a reported reputation amongst some councillors of saying 'no' to any new project or policy, which could work against both main mayoral contenders if she is re-elected.
Waitematā
The second closest race in 2019 is being re-run in 2022 - City Vision councillor Pippa Coom against the man she ousted last time by 320 votes, Mike Lee. Coom is a strident advocate of public and active transport and a policy wonk. Lee, who was the former Auckland Regional Council chair and served three terms on the super city council, is known for advocating for the regional parks and rail services during his time in office. This time around, there is no C&R candidate (Sarah Trotman in 2019 won almost 3000 votes) and, intriguingly C&R has thrown its support behind the former Alliance Party man Lee. It would once have been an unlikely comeback, but who knows?
North Shore
Incumbent councillors Chris Darby and Richard Hills would in many minds be seen as comfortable for re-election, both having played strong roles on the outgoing council as committee chairs and with prominence in their fields and on the Shore. One possible wrinkle could be another pre-super city figure in the form of former North Shore Mayor George Wood who wants one of their seats. Last time two 'More for the Shore' candidates in Danielle Grant and Grant Gillon won 15,000 and 14,000 votes each. Grant now joins Wood representing C&R North Shore. If the centre-right won one of these two, the voting mix gets interesting on the council.
