Week 12 was the Green Bay Packers’ “all is lost” moment.
Aaron Rodgers, the reigning back-to-back regular season MVP, was roughly as efficient as Mac Jones or Kenny Pickett behind center. A defense missing blossoming pass rusher Rashan Gary had given up 95 points and more than 1,300 yards in its last three games. Predictive analysts pegged their playoff chances at roughly three percent.
But like that moment in screenplays — the bottoming-out that suggests our protagonist is well and truly buried — it has merely served as the foundation for a rousing Hollywood comeback. The Packers have won four straight games and need one more victory, at home, over the Detroit Lions, to make it to the postseason for the fourth straight year.
It’s a stunning turnaround for a team that could have understandably written off the final third of the season and given backup Jordan Love an audition at quarterback. But while Rodgers has been the subject of most of the headlines regarding this turnaround — he always had faith! — he’s been a supplemental piece of that puzzle. Instead, Green Bay’s surge has come from a defense that’s wrought havoc against dynamic offenses in recent weeks.
That defense has only given up 17 points per game in that four-game win streak — an average nearly a full touchdown less that it was through Week 13 (23.6) and one that would rank second overall in the NFL. Granted, two of those games came against the hapless Chicago Bears and the Baker Mayfield-on-a-bad-day Los Angeles Rams, but the other two were the Miami Dolphins (a top two offense as recently as December) and the star-studded Minnesota Vikings.
The Packers have forced 12 turnovers in that span, generating the havoc to win those games despite being out-gained in three of them. Over the previous four weeks, the Green Bay defense ranks fifth by allowing -0.128 expected points added per play from its opposing offenses.
Let’s talk about how that’s happened — and whether the Packers can keep it up and make a playoff run.
What's fueling this?
The passing defense has risen up as a bend-don’t-break unit that’s forced a myriad of turnovers to snuff out drives and give Green Bay the leverage to win the time of possession battle (at least 32 minutes of ball control each game since Week 13). This has been necessary; that same unit is allowing more than 8.8 yards per pass attempt — a number that would rank second best among starting QBs if conglomerated onto a single passer.
That’s been buoyed by three forced fumbles. Of these 12 turnovers, eight have come in Green Bay territory and a ninth was at the Dolphins’ 49-yard line. When pressed into action in big moments, this unit has risen up and secured the ball.
While that turnover dominance is the headliner, there have been strides made against the run — partially due to improvement and partially due to circumstance. The Bears pieced the Packers up on the ground because that’s really all they can do. In the three games since, they’ve given up 4.65 yards per carry — a number that sounds grim but is soundly better than the 5.0 given up in Weeks 1-14. An on-schedule offense has taken early leads, forcing opponents to turn away from a run game that’s been wretched in stretches for Green Bay.
That’s nice, but what’s driven this surge is superstar moments from a wide array of players. Jaire Alexander shut down Justin Jefferson in Week 17 and has two interceptions and three passes defensed in the Pack’s win streak, but he’s not the only hero. Rasul Douglas and De’Vondre Campbell — standouts from 2021 — each have picks. Starters like Adrian Amos and Darnell Savage as well as depth options like Rudy Ford and Keisean Nixon have come up with turnovers as well.
Everyone is flying to the ball and playing better defense in December and January than they had early in the season. The unit general manager Brian Gutekunst had hoped would be good enough that we wouldn’t notice his lack of proven wideout talent has finally gotten there. The result is a four-game winning streak and a de facto Week 18 playoff game.
Buuuuuut, it’s fair to be concerned about whether that crew can continue to throw knockout punch after knockout punch without getting gassed.
Is this sustainable?
Can Green Bay continue to average 2.25 interceptions per game? Probably not. Will opponents continue to miss at least one kick each week and biff more than a third of their field goal attempts? Also no.
The more reasonable question is whether a stabilizing offense can continue to control the ball and force opponents away from the run (where the Packers are vulnerable) and into the pass (where they create chaos). Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon have been efficient and punishing on the ground. Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs have emerged as useful, if inconsistent, targets. Rodgers can still make alien throws downfield like few other quarterbacks.
Why is that important for the defense? It suggests Green Bay can continue winning the time of possession battle, create deficits and force the early throws the Packers have turned into third-and-long situations.
Opponents haven’t faced many third- or fourth-and-short opportunities against the Packers’ leaky run defense and, curiously, have run the ball in these situations even less. In their last three games, Green Bay has faced only two run plays in situations where opposing offenses have to gain three yards or fewer. They stuffed one of them for a 50 percent success rate, but who knows how sustainable that is.
Unfortunately for Green Bay, recreating the aerial havoc of the last four weeks could prove difficult without more pressure up front.
Three of the four offensive lines the Packers have faced have been deficient at best. The Bears lead the league in sacks allowed, the Rams have been in shambles compared to last year’s Andrew Whitworth-led unit and the Vikings were reduced to playing a third-string center in the first quarter. But Green Bay only has six sacks against those teams and half came against Los Angeles (and none against Justin Fields in Chicago).
Next up is the Lions’ upper crust blockers — a group that held the Pack to zero sacks and only three quarterback hits in Week 9 even with top pass rusher Rashan Gary, now out for the season thanks to an injury suffered that Sunday, in the lineup. Jared Goff couldn’t take advantage of that and still managed to throw an interception in that 15-9 win. But he’s been a house on fire recently; over the course of the Packers’ four-game winning streak Detroit’s reclaimed QB has been the league’s second-most efficient passer.
We’ll get to see whether the multi-headed demon of Green Bay’s turnover luck can thrive against a quarterback who hasn’t thrown an interception since these teams met in November. The Packers are riding a wave of defensive chaos that’s glossed over the fact they’ve been prone to big plays. They’re winning games as a result — but if some of those tide-turning plays turn into drops at the wrong moment, the 4-8 team who shuffled listlessly through the first two-thirds of the season could make its return.
