China and the United States hammering out their differences face-to-face at the G20 this week can only be a good thing for both New Zealand and the wider Indo-Pacific region, writes political editor Jo Moir.
Analysis: Foreign affairs officials across the Indo-Pacific will be analysing White House readouts from Washington over the coming days and weeks, following a three-hour meeting between China and the United States, on the eve of the G20 summit in Bali.
New Zealand has long had its own independent foreign policy and has had to walk a tightrope keeping the superpowers on side as tensions have only increased between the two countries in recent years.
As China inches more and more into the Pacific and contests the region, the United States under President Joe Biden has returned to try elbow its way back in, after neglecting the Indo-Pacific for quite some time.
The two countries have a long list of fundamental differences, particularly when it comes to China's provocations of Taiwan, and both Biden and Xi went into the Bali bilateral with the intention of holding their own ground but attempting to find some commonality too.
Ahead of the meeting in the early hours of Tuesday NZT, both presidents had exchanged letters on the dialogue talks – signalling a willingness to approach discussions with courtesy and professionalism, while also being clear about their responsibilities to their own country.
Since its conclusion, the meeting has been framed as positive and exceeding the expectations set for it.
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern told Newsroom the meeting was “hugely beneficial” given it had been years since the two countries had such a lengthy bilateral exchange face-to-face.
Given the global environment, with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, North Korea’s ballistic missile testing, the atrocities in Myanmar and ongoing tension in the South China Sea,alongside human rights abuses, she said the mere fact Biden and Xi sat down together was significant.
One of the outcomes of their meeting was a decision to resume climate action talks between the two countries after they were paused by China in response to US Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s controversial visit to Taiwan.
The benefits of an agreement by two of the biggest emitters to look for climate solutions once again, at the same time COP 27 is underway in Egypt, is not lost on Ardern.
“I think one of the negative issues we’ve seen in previous climate conversations is this idea that if one large power isn’t pulling their weight, then why should the rest?” she told Newsroom.
Trade Minister Damien O’Connor told Newsroom it was China and the United States who had the technology to make a real difference on climate action.
“China can achieve whatever it sets its mind to and if it chooses to act in this space, it will happen quickly,” he says.
“The United States has made huge gains at speed with EVs. Climate action is something it can lead on, and the US is known for setting international trends and if it does, China will follow.”
For climate change deniers, “there’s no longer anywhere to hide,” he says.
Having both China and the US recommitting to work together on climate action will hopefully send signals to other big emitters too.
A big difference between how China deals with its close partners versus the United States is that Bejing doesn’t accept any kind of public criticism on how it chooses to rule.
While some common ground was found at the Bali meeting it doesn’t override the competition that still exists between the superpowers.
But Ardern says the threats associated with their disagreements lessen the more they both keep coming back to the table.
And de-escalation between China and the US can only be a good thing for New Zealand and the wider region.
“We need to be able to have dialogue and diplomacy to resolve those issues, rather than an escalation of tension,” Ardern said.
“This is what we’ve seen in our past can lead to miscalculation and that is in no one’s interest, so those lines of communication being open, a commitment to continue them, that is definitely in New Zealand’s interest and our region’s interest.”
If anything the last month has reinforced the need for the relationship to improve and tensions to thaw, given Xi Jinping secured a third term as general secretary and head of the Central Military Commission - the party's two most important positions - and is set to return as President after standing order changes effectively anoint him leader for life.
That's at the same time Biden has secured an important victory in the mid-term elections, winning the Senate, with the Democrats still in play to win the House after the red Republican wave failed to eventuate.
Biden has been steadfast in his opposition to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and that won’t have escaped Chinese eyes. Beijing will no doubt be aware of taking the US seriously on the issue.
That may well have prompted the public statement around there being no need to get nuclear weapons involved, which was directed at Russia by Xi when he met the visiting German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Beijing earlier this month.
Since the invasion of Ukraine, Xi has taken a much softer stance on Russia's actions than others, as the president manages his relationship with his counterpart Vladimir Putin.
Some observers saw the recent comments by Xi against any use of nuclear weapons on Ukraine as a deliberate attempt by him to calm the horses ahead of a week of summits on the international stage where many leaders would unite in their condemnation of Russia.
New Zealand is one of the countries that has joined the US in speaking out against Russia, but also has a close and large trade-dependent relationship with China.
A big difference between how China deals with its close partners versus the United States is that Bejing doesn’t accept any kind of public criticism on how it chooses to rule.
China is strongly opposed to New Zealand or any other trading or economic partner talking publicly about human rights either through the media or at summits and high-level meetings.
It comes from a position of wanting to deal with things one-on-one and not have other countries weighing in.
Compare that with the United States, which expects its partners and allies to speak up if they disagree, as has been the case on aluminium and steel tariffs and the Roe v Wade legislation, for example.
New Zealand wants and needs to work with both economies.
Foreign affairs officials and leaders will be watching closely for any changes in the relationship between the superpowers, and will be hoping this week could be the beginning of something the whole region can benefit from.
