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The Conversation
The Conversation
James Dyke, Associate Professor in Earth System Science, University of Exeter

The overshoot myth: you can’t keep burning fossil fuels and expect scientists of the future to get us back to 1.5°C

Melting Antarctic glacier. Shutterstock/Bernhard Staehli

Record breaking fossil fuel production, all time high greenhouse gas emissions and extreme temperatures. Like the proverbial frog in the heating pan of water, we refuse to respond to the climate and ecological crisis with any sense of urgency. Under such circumstances, claims from some that global warming can still be limited to no more than 1.5°C take on a surreal quality.

For example, at the start of 2023’s international climate negotiations in Dubai, conference president, Sultan Al Jaber, boldly stated that 1.5°C was his goal and that his presidency would be guided by a “deep sense of urgency” to limit global temperatures to 1.5°C. He made such lofty promises while planning a massive increase in oil and gas production as CEO of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company.

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