There are different ways to skin a cat, but as a general rule, you need to take advantage of Augusta National's par 5s to stand a chance of winning The Masters.
I've looked back at the last 12 years of winners' scorecards and the worst par-5 performance in that period came from Rory McIlroy last year, who was seven-under-par for the par 5s.
There are many incredible things about Augusta National, but one of my favourite aspects has to be the risk-reward nature of the par-5 holes. Plenty of drama is often created here over the weekend, but their impact on determining the winner goes beyond the theatre they create.
However, if you look hard enough, you'll generally find an exception to the rule, as I did when I embarked on the task of looking at ever winner's par-5 performance since 1974.
In the last 52 years, only one golfer has failed to shoot under-par on the long holes and go on to win the Green Jacket. I'd suggest – although I can't say for certain – the vast majority of winners before 1974 played the par 5s in less than 80 strokes, too.
There’s potential for disaster on all of Augusta’s long holes, but all of them are in reach in two – especially the 13th and 15th, which have always been short for par 5s.
Some 16 of the last 52 winners played the 2nd, 8th, 13th and 15th in ten-under-par or better, while only five of 52 were four-under-par or worse. The mean average of the last 50 winners’ under-par scores on the par 5s is around eight-under for the week.
The overwhelming evidence is that you have to be under-par – and generally considerably under-par – on the par 5s at Augusta to have a chance of winning The Masters. But, not always...
Enter Danny Willett...
A statistical anomaly
In 2016, Willett seemingly came from nowhere to post a bogey-free final-round 67 and win by three strokes from Jordan Spieth. He actually made two par-5 birdies during the final round, which means he was two-over-par for the long holes from rounds one to three.
Given data and trends, it’s stunning he was able to get the job done with such indifferent par-5 performance. Interestingly, he only made 13 birdies as well – the fewest by a winner in the last ten years.
However, he only made eight bogeys and, crucially, he was able to keep a double-bogey off the scorecard. Only 24% of Masters winners from the last 25 years have made a double and gone on to claim the title.
The best par-5 performance over the last 50 years came from American Ray Floyd in 1976, when he negotiated Augusta National’s three-shotters in an incredible 14-under-par. He finished the event on 17-under, eight shots clear of Ben Crenshaw in second place.
In 2008, Zach Johnson played the par 5s in 11-under-par despite famously laying up on every one of them. The winning score that year was +1, underlining the importance of par-5 scoring at The Masters.
See you again next year to see if anyone else has joined Willett's exclusive club!
