Several weeks into the US-Israel war on Iran, the world's attention has fixed on missile strikes, diplomatic brinkmanship, and surging crude prices. But a quieter emergency is building across Southeast and South Asia, where Vietnam, Bangladesh, and the Philippines are running dangerously low on fuel.
The Supply Gap No One Is Talking About
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has knocked roughly 20 million barrels per day of oil transit offline. The International Energy Agency (IEA) called it the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market, with export volumes now at less than 10% of pre-war levels.
Gulf producers have been forced to shut in wells after running out of storage, with production cuts reaching at least 10 million barrels per day by mid-March.
For China, Japan, and South Korea, strategic stockpiles offer a buffer measured in months. For Vietnam, Bangladesh, and the Philippines, that buffer is measured in weeks.
Three Countries on the Brink
Vietnam sources 85% of its crude oil imports from the Middle East, nearly all from Kuwait, according to MUFG Research. Hanoi has announced plans to buy about 4 million barrels from non-Middle Eastern suppliers, but Sam Reynolds at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis estimated that covers just six days of consumption. Total reserves sit at roughly 20 days of supply. Officials have urged employers to allow remote work to cut fuel use.
Bangladesh was already running a structural gas deficit exceeding 1,300 million cubic feet per day before the war, IEEFA data showed. Kpler figures indicate 72% of the country's liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports come from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. With limited storage, the Hormuz closure has pushed Bangladesh's power sector toward what Kpler analyst Go Katayama called 'fast demand destruction'. The government has closed universities and placed the military in charge of oil depots.
The Philippines holds perhaps the most precarious position. The country imports 95% to 98% of its petroleum requirements, and Energy Secretary Sharon Garin confirmed the government has roughly 45 to 50 days of supply. Manila is evaluating offers to purchase one to two million emergency barrels and has moved government offices to a four-day work week.
Why UK Supply Chains Should Be Watching
A Nomura research note flagged the Philippines, Thailand, India, and South Korea as the most vulnerable Asian economies to sustained high oil prices because of their heavy import dependence.
For UK businesses, the concern is direct. Southeast Asia's factories produce garments, electronics, and components that feed British retail and industrial supply chains. Fuel shortages would push up shipping costs and delay deliveries within weeks.
Brent crude fell sharply on 23 March, dropping below $100 (£74.63) a barrel for the first time in nearly two weeks, after President Trump announced a five-day pause on strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure. Prices bounced back toward $99 (£73.89) on 24 March after Iran denied that any negotiations had taken place. Goldman Sachs raised its Brent forecast to an average of $110 (£82.10) through April.
No Quick Fix in Sight
The IEA's record release of 400 million barrels from member countries' strategic reserves, with the US contributing 172 million, has so far failed to calm markets.
Nikolay Kozhanov, a research associate professor at Qatar University's Gulf Studies Centre, argued that, unlike the 2022 Russia-Ukraine energy shock, this crisis involves a physical chokepoint that rerouting and diversification alone can't fix.
For the millions of overseas Filipino workers whose families depend on affordable energy, or the Bangladeshi garment workers powering a $40 billion (£29.8 billion) export industry, the arithmetic is blunt. Reserves are draining. Alternatives are scarce. And every day the Strait stays closed, the countdown gets shorter.
