Big election defeats almost always throw political parties into existential crises: who do they represent, what are they for? The Conservative party, however, had tied itself in knots over these questions long before it experienced its worst-ever electoral defeat in July. Now it remains locked in its long contest to select its next leader.
The disastrous electoral result saw its 2019 vote share – inflated by Boris Johnson’s populist pledge to “get Brexit done” – collapse to its lowest since 1832; Conservative thinktank Onward highlights how a significant number of the lost votes went not just to Reform, but to Labour and the Liberal Democrats, with others staying home rather than vote Tory. The 2019 electoral coalition proved to be a temporary pulling together that included traditional Conservative voters but also some Labour voters who voted Leave in the EU referendum and believed Johnson’s promise that Brexit was the answer to the country’s structural issues. The election result of 2024 was an overwhelming verdict on their track record from 2010 to 2024 – sluggish economic growth, stagnating living standards and stretched public services – and the desire for change.
