Europe stands on the brink of war. The biggest conflagration since 1945 is now an all-too-real prospect. For many people, this seems incredible. How did we come to this? Are the terrible lessons of the Nazi era, of the Cold War invasions of Hungary and Czechoslovakia, of Bosnia, Kosovo and of previous suppressions of free peoples by tyrannical leaders all now forgotten? Hopefully not. And yet history, confounding reason, appears set to repeat itself.
As this dread maelstrom spins, the US, Britain and the Nato allies are united in three key respects. First, their intelligence services agree Russia has sufficient military capability around Ukraine’s borders to mount a full-scale invasion, seize the capital, Kyiv, and force a change of government that better suits Moscow’s interests. US president Joe Biden suggests an attack could come as early as Wednesday. Second, the western powers are unanimous in blaming this desperate situation on Russia’s president. Vladimir Putin, and only Vladimir Putin, they believe, will decide if, when, where and how an invasion takes place. At this point (and contrary to what Biden told the allies), it’s unclear whether Putin has made a final decision. This is crucial. It means he may yet be dissuaded. It also means he, pre-eminently, will be to blame if the worst happens.
