Army general Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema, the self-declared new leader of the west African state of Gabon, has promised “to turn the page” on over half a century of misrule by the family of Ali Bongo Ondimba, the president he deposed last week. Yet this fresh start may prove illusory, given that Nguema is reportedly Bongo’s cousin. Africa’s latest coup drama appears to have begun as a family row.
As personal assistant to President Omar Bongo, Nguema held a position of influence within Gabon’s ruling circles. But when Ali Bongo took over after his father’s death in 2009, Nguema was effectively banished. It seems little love is lost between Bongo Jr and his father’s former confidant. A furore over last month’s fraud-marred presidential election gave Nguema the opening he was waiting for.
Bongo clan domestic dynamics aside, the bald fact that yet another African government has been toppled by military force is alarming. The west African grouping Ecowas, the African Union and the international community should tell Nguema his plan to be sworn in as “transitional president” on Monday is unacceptable. Gabon’s people must be allowed to choose their next leader democratically and without delay.
The turmoil in Libreville is all the more disturbing in the sense that Gabon, with its big oil reserves and relatively small population of 2.3 million, should be relatively prosperous. Yet, as in many of its neighbours, misgovernance and corruption at the top has left those at the bottom struggling. Some also point a finger at France, the former colonial power, whose extensive commercial interests reinforced the self-interest of Gabon’s greedy elite.
The coup fits a disturbing pattern across sub-Saharan Africa, which has suffered a spate of military takeovers since 2020, including in Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso, Chad, Sudan and, most recently, Niger. One common factor is demographics. All these countries have rapidly growing, ever more youthful populations. In Africa, the median age is about 19. By comparison, the median age of Africa’s leaders is 63.
Upward pressure for change from better-educated, increasingly urban-dwelling young people would be normal, even if trustworthy institutions were in place. Surveys show that young Africans thirst for genuine democracy, yet many will support military takeovers if all else fails. Positive change is also obstructed, meanwhile, by the shared problems of entrenched poverty, climate change, food and health insecurity, and conflict, in particular the impact on the Sahel region of Islamist jihadist terror groups.
Even in African countries that have not recently endured coups, democratic governance often hangs by a thread. Zimbabwe’s scandalously fraudulent election is but the most recent example of this blight. People in Uganda, South Africa, Angola and Ethiopia all have good reasons to wonder at their leaders’ antics. Meanwhile, the continent-wide spectre of indebtedness linked to low growth, inflation, the pandemic and higher western interest rates looms large.
Africa’s crisis of democracy has powerful external causes, too, not least the colonial legacies bequeathed by European powers. Turmoil in Mali – where France’s president, Emmanuel Macron, ordered a humiliating retreat – and elsewhere challenges the intrinsically condescending concept of “francophone” Africa. The US faces calls to re-evaluate policies that prioritise security over development. Unjustified UK overseas aid cuts disproportionately hurt Africa.
The paradox is that, for all its problems, vibrant, booming, talented, resource-rich Africa is in many ways the future. This prospect, plus more selfish concerns about mass migration, global health security, spreading jihadist ideology and the rising influence there of authoritarian China and Russia, suggests that a radical upgrade of the west’s relationship with the 21st-century African powerhouse would be in everyone’s best interest.
