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Bristol Post
Bristol Post
Sport
Richard Forrester

The numbers that highlight why Kal Naismith's return hands Bristol City a huge boost in attack

Wherever Nigel Pearson chooses to play him on the field, Kal Naismith's expected return over the Easter break should provide a welcome boost for Bristol City at both ends of the pitch.

The utility player's importance in Nigel Pearson's side has been evident during his spells out of the side as he recovers the second of two calf injuries. Naismith, 31, has missed the last 11 matches having pulled up in the first half of the victory at Preston two months ago.

His injury set the tone for what was about to come as his City team-mates followed suit; Rob Atkinson and Tomas Kalas' absences in defence has meant Pearson has been tasked with playing a makeshift back four which has seen Cam Pring come into the middle with Jay Dasilva filling in at left-back.

Before his injury, Pearson deployed Naismith as the deepest midfielder, holding that line between the centre of the park and defence to provide that extra layer of protection. His range of passing also meant he could play those progressive balls forward and hit the diagonals, helping stretch play by feeding the wide men.

It raises the question of which position Naismith will take up once he's back on the pitch. Naturally, a central defender, the obvious shout given the ongoing injuries at the back would be to play him alongside Zak Vyner, allowing Pring to move back over to the flank, where City can play to his strengths with those direct runs.

While it gives Pearson a welcome selection decision to make at the back, his return could also provide the missing link to get City firing going forward. Saturday's draw at home to Reading was hugely frustrating.

One being the fact that the goal conceded was easily avoidable, put down to a lapse of concentration. The other reason was knowing that City should have put the game to bed long before Lucas Joao's 72nd-minute equaliser given their dominance over 90 minutes.

Kal Naismith could return to action to face Stoke on Friday (Robbie Stephenson/JMP)

The hosts got themselves into positive positions but conviction in the final ball was lacking, with crosses hitting a wall of blue and white hoops. It's becoming a regular theme, particularly since the switch to a back four in January.

In a way, the fact City are now being tasked with breaking down sides is a compliment to the way they've progressed having stretched their unbeaten run in BS3 to seven games. Teams are happy to sit back at Ashton Gate, which prevents Pearson's side from playing to their strengths on the counter-attack, tasking them to show more ingenuity in the final third.

Tommy Conway's goal against Reading was a superbly worked strike with Andi Weimann and George Tanner providing an outlet on the right. However, it's fair to suggest Pearson has yet to find the right formula with his front three since the arrivals of Anis Mehmeti and Harry Cornick.

Since Naismith's absence, City have only scored more than one goal on one occasion - a 2-0 victory over relegation-threatened Blackpool. Just a coincidence? That stats would suggest not.

According to stats from City fan David Hares (@Haresey66), when Naismith is in the side, City have scored two or more goals in 54 per cent of their matches (13 games in total). They've scored one or zero in 46 per cent of games he has played in (11 matches).

When Naismith is out of the side, the difference is considerably notable. Pearson's side have scored two or more goals in 14 per cent of matches (three games) and one or no goals in 86 per cent of games (19 matches).

Naismith's set pieces have been a weapon for City. Alex Scott and Matty James have provided the firepower from dead-ball situations in his absence but not to the same effect.

No player averages more passes than Naismith's 59.7 per game in the City side while only Jay Dasilva averages more crosses. He also averages 6.1 long balls in 90 minutes, with Zak Vyner next in line with 4.3.

If he comes back into the defence, that's likely to have a positive impact on Mehmeti's game as it pushes Pring into the wide role. Dasilva has been defensively solid but his attacking qualities can't compare to his team-mate, who has the energy, pace and physicality to provide the overlap for the Albanian.

Mehmeti likes to cut inside onto his favoured right foot so Pring's overlap would naturally create more space for the winger to operate. It will also theoretically allow him to drift into the middle and play closer to Nahki Wells who has looked isolated in the No9 role on occasions.

We've seen the good and bad of Naismith this season although he seemingly eradicated those costly mistakes made earlier in the season. Playing progressive passes comes with the risk of being intercepted but it's clear the positives he brings to the side completely outweigh the risks.

If he returns for the final seven or six games of the season, don't be surprised if it coincides with City improving their tally in front of goal.

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