The quarterbacks who’ll take the field in 2024’s NFL conference championship games are all familiar faces. Patrick Mahomes and Jared Goff have each been to the Super Bowl. Lamar Jackson is headed to his second MVP. Brock Purdy went from Mr. Irrelevant at the 2022 NFL Draft to 20-5 as a starting quarterback and finished 2023 as the regular season’s most efficient passer.
Each will have a massive effect on how their title games turn out and whether or not they make it to Super Bowl 58. That weight won’t be solely on their shoulders — and some players can expect a heavier load than others.
These players are too well known to be X factors, but don’t rise to the level of obvious importance as their quarterbacks. Let’s talk about the guys who could swing the Super Bowl matchup with a single play or, more likely, a whole bunch of them.
Kansas City Chiefs: Chris Jones, or George Karlaftis, or Trent McDuffie, or...
Let’s consider this a cheat for any member of a Chiefs defense that’s allowed a single touchdown after halftime in its last five games. That unit has given up 29 total second half points over its last seven weeks. Since Week 15, Kansas City has fielded one of the league’s most complete defenses and it comes together strongest when it matters most.
Jones is the headliner, for good reason. 2023 may have been the season he finally surpassed Aaron Donald as the most impactful interior lineman in the game. And his positional flexibility put him in a spot last week to take on the Buffalo Bills’ best blocker and drive him deep into into the pocket to erase a game-changing touchdown in the final two minutes.
Chris Jones' pressure on the edge just saved a touchdown pic.twitter.com/qxDokRYMMs
— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) January 22, 2024
Karlaftis has developed into a top 20 pass rusher alongside him, notching 10.5 sacks and 36 pressures — including three sacks in his last three games. McDuffie is a first-team All-Pro in his second season in the league and can bear down on Zay Flowers along the boundary or in the slot. L’Jarius Sneed is the team’s most targeted corner and he’s translated that into a 56.2 passer rating in coverage — lowest among any defender who’s faced at least 80 passes.
This is a cop out answer, but a meaningful one given the way the Chiefs have typically won games the past six seasons. They’d never finished in the top 10 when it came to yards allowed with Patrick Mahomes on the roster. This year they’re ranked second. They gave up more than 24 points six times last season en route to a Super Bowl win. They’ve hit that number once this year.
That’s all extremely vital for an offense that’s fallen from first (29.2 points per game) to 14th in scoring (22.3). Kansas City can win games even without an elite offense. Now that defense has to shut down the presumptive 2023 NFL MVP.
Baltimore Ravens: Patrick Queen and Roquan Smith
There’s so, so much to like about the Ravens’ defense, from Justin Madubuike’s emergence as a pocket-destroying monster on the interior to Kyle Hamilton proving he can be just as devastating against the AFC as he was at Notre Dame.
But with the Chiefs looming, no one may be more important to Baltimore’s Super Bowl aspirations than the two linebackers who hold together that defense from the middle of the field. The Ravens field two of the best off-ball linebackers at the center of their 3-4 lineup, which is impressive since back in early 2022 Queen was coming off a brutal rookie season and Smith was a Chicago Bear.
Together they combined for 291 tackles in the regular season — or 17.6 per game. They had two interceptions and 14 passes defensed between them. Their missed tackle rate was a moderate 7.0 percent, which isn’t great but still above the league average, particularly for defenders with such absurd usage rates.
Their multidirectional speed is going to be paramount to the Ravens’ Super Bowl quest. Both can crash into running lanes to shut down Isiah Pacheco; Kansas City is 4-1 when he averages more than five yards per carry. They can use their sideline-to-sideline leverage to spy Patrick Mahomes, whose 50 scrambles this season are a career high. They can chase and body Travis Kelce who, with all due respect to Rashee Rice, is the only person Mahomes can actually trust in a bind.
If the Ravens win Sunday, it’ll be a statement win for Lamar Jackson. But it likely won’t happen without the off-ball linebackers for whom his his team paid a premium.
Detroit Lions: David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs
The 49ers defense is powerful, but not infallible. Cleveland Browns backups Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt teamed up to gash that unit behind a powerful offensive line, giving PJ by-god Walker a win over the NFC’s top seed as a starting quarterback. Last week, Aaron Jones nearly carried the Green Bay Packers to a divisional round win on the strength of an 18-carry, 108-yard day. San Francisco ranks 25th in the NFL in EPA per rush allowed.
Enter Montgomery and Gibbs, protected by an offensive line that clears roads with the intensity and effort of a snow plow possessed by demons tearing through the streets of Lansing. That duo averaged 135 rushing yards per game between them, occupying exactly the roles they’d been acquired to fill.
Montgomery is the reliable veteran, capable of keeping his offense in winnable situations thanks to a 54.8 percent success rate on his carries (at least 40 percent of yards needed on first down, 60 percent on second down and 100 percent of yards needed on third or fourth down) — fifth best among NFL tailbacks. Gibbs has been Jim Thome behind him, capable of strikeouts (46.7 percent success rate, 28th best among qualified RBs) but also launching bombs with big runs that change the course of the game.
JAHMYR GIBBS. GONE.
📺: #TBvsDET on NBC
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/frRD38ClOq pic.twitter.com/AAOEC17OoK— NFL (@NFL) January 21, 2024
Both can create magic between the tackles. Successful runs up the middle mean All-Pro linebacker Fred Warner has to stay home more often. That means Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta get to run a little easier downfield, creating more space for two guys who already thrive at finding it.
The 49ers defense has plenty of tools to harass Jared Goff, who has been great but not infallible this postseason. A big performance from Montgomery and Gibbs could carry him across any rough patches that arise.
San Francisco 49ers: Charvarius Ward
A tip of the cap to Tashaun Gipson, the veteran safety who seems to languish in free agency each spring, then emerge as a valuable starter every fall. For his second straight season, he’s allowed a passer rating under 66.0 in coverage as an over-the-top presence.
But Gipson and rookie safety Ji’Ayir Brown have had their workload reduced thanks to Ward’s emergence as one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL. His 64.5 passer rating allowed is the lowest in the league among players with more than 100 targets. He’s hauled in more interceptions (five) than touchdowns allowed (three) and opposing quarterbacks are completing just 54 percent of their targets against him.
He’s capable of sticking tight in press coverage and running downfield, using explosive closing speed to bait throws before erasing them (24 passes defensed in 18 games).
No. 7 takes it back for 6!@itslilmooney #ProBowlVote #SFvsAZ on CBS pic.twitter.com/y6NSWgp8Xy
— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) December 17, 2023
San Francisco’s run defense may be a liability, but this is a team that slams shut in big moments. Ward’s unit kept the Green Bay Packers off the scoreboard in the fourth quarter of last weekend’s game, helped dash the Seattle Seahawks’ playoff hopes by shutting them out in the final frame of two different games and limited a pre-spiral Philadelphia Eagles to a single garbage time touchdown back in Week 13.
Now he’ll alternate between St. Brown, LaPorta and whichever overlooked contributor will inch from the woodwork to carry the passing offense in stretches next (see Josh Reynolds, Brock Wright, Kalif Raymond, etc). The Niners have a solid support network behind him, but their passing defense hinges on Ward’s creation of a rising tide that allows everyone else to be better around him.
