If the first week of the football season is any indication, an NFC Championship Game between the San Francisco 49ers and Dallas Cowboys will be this year’s real Super Bowl.
The New York Giants, fresh off a playoff appearance, will be in the running for the first overall pick. The Buffalo Bills will miss the playoffs. And Tua Tagovailoa’s going to throw for 8,000 yards.
There’s plenty to panic about each Sunday in the NFL, but there’s no overreaction quite like opening week overreaction. Downtrodden teams are given hope through wins over even weaker opponents. Pessimistic fans of juggernauts find ways to pick apart even dominant victories. Sports radio heaves and lurches to life like an engine refueled, trading on rants that will be outdated and proven wrong days later.
Let’s lean in to that. Welcome to the Overreaction Index, where each week I’ll break down five trends that has teams and fans deep in their emotions. Should we buy the Cowboys as a Super Bowl threat? Yes, even despite the ongoing specter of Mike McCarthy. Is it appropriate to worry about Josh Allen? Well, hell, we’re gonna talk about it.
Back at my old haunt at SB Nation, we put out a weekly panic index to gauge just how worried certain NFL teams and players should be. This isn’t an outright ripoff of that, but I’d be remiss to say it wasn’t inspired by it (and summarily ripped off by other outlets. I’d be madder had SB Nation not gutted its own staff in a still perplexing act of self immolation. Anyway!).
Here are the five things I’m overreacting to after Week 1 — and just how likely those overreactions are to be right.
1
The Dallas Cowboys defense is the death star
The Cowboys didn’t just beat the rival New York Giants on Sunday Night. They razed their village, stole their livestock and salted the earth behind them so nothing could grow.
Somehow a 40-0 final score fails to tell the whole story. Dallas’ defense and special teams contributed two touchdowns on their own and forced an interception that created a short field and another touchdown — and this was all in the first 20 minutes of the game. Daniel Jones was pressured on 62 percent of his dropbacks, sacked seven times and hit 12 more. It was gruesome.
The 2022 Giants went 9-7-1 thanks in part to an efficient offense that clocked in at 0.034 expected points added (EPA) per play and a 45.1 percent success rate (defined as a play that gains at least 50 percent of yards required for a first down on first down, 70 percent of yards required on second down and 100 percent of yards required on third or fourth down) for each snap. On Sunday those numbers plummeted to -0.43 EPA/play and a 34 percent success rate. This was a dismantling, and it’s terrible news for the rest of the NFC.
Verdict: Not an overreaction.
The Cowboys aren’t going to pitch shutouts each Sunday, but their defense certainly looks championship caliber. Micah Parsons gets the much deserved hype, but this pass rush can crumple pockets from any angle. Dorance Armstrong thrived amongst the chaos with two sacks and three tackles for loss. Osa Odighizuwa is on the brink of a breakout season.
Giants trying to run GY Counter, Osa Odighizuwa completely destroys it from the 3T. Dallas' team speed on defense at every level is terrifying pic.twitter.com/XEryRvGnO6
— JP Acosta (Pug Dederson Stan Acct) (@acosta32_jp) September 11, 2023
The secondary behind them feasted on rushed throws. Measuring up against the Giants’ squadron of WR3 types won’t tell us much, but Stephon Gilmore certainly still looks like the Gilly Lock (three passes defensed and an interception in his first game with the Cowboys). Leighton Vander Esch is healthy and capable of locking down the middle of the field. Trevon Diggs is Trevon Diggs, which means he’s gonna have a bunch of interceptions and a bunch of big plays go by him while he attempts to make said interceptions. Dallas is fine with that.
On Sunday, the Cowboys looked like an SEC defense feasting on an FCS opponent. That won’t happen every week, but it’s a message to the rest of the NFL.
2
The New York Giants have no prayer of following up 2022's winning season
Bad doesn’t quite describe the Giants’ opener. This picture, however, more or less gets you there.
There we go. Saquon Barkley ran for 51 yards, which is the nicest thing you can say about New York’s performance — and 18 of those came on a single third quarter run after the Cowboys had gone up 33-0. The Giants’ offensive line allowed pressure on most of Daniel Jones’ dropbacks. The $160 million man was sacked or hit more times (19) than he had completed passes (15).
The Giants won 10 games, including a playoff showdown in Minnesota, on the basis of a 9-4-1 record in one-possession games. Dallas didn’t give them a chance to see if that luck had run out in Brian Daboll’s second season at the helm.
Verdict: Just a slight, very minor overreaction
New York was better than expected last season thanks to a low-risk offense that reduced Jones’ turnovers and kept things on schedule. We didn’t get to see if that could work in Week 1 because the Giants were trailing 16-0 13 minutes into the game. Jones was forced to throw more, but a weak receiving corps, pressure in the pocket and a driving rainstorm meant he couldn’t even take shots downfield. His 5.8 air yards per pass were fewer than the 6.4 average air yards of his stabilizing 2022 season — which was already one of the lowest numbers in the league.
If poor blocking blows up Jones’ chances to reduce turnovers and throw high percentage passes, this offense is in deep trouble. The good news is not every team in the NFL is going to create chaos like the Cowboys. The bad news is the Philadelphia Eagles, San Francisco 49ers, New England Patriots, Green Bay Packers and Washington Commanders — all of whom ranked in the top 10 when it came to pressure rate in 2022 — can. The bulk of New York’s opponents this season are capable of doing bad, bad things to a problematic offensive line.
So no, things probably won’t get as bad as they were on Sunday night. But they probably won’t be as good as they were in Daboll’s first year on the sideline, either.
3
Jordan Love is the Green Bay Packers' next Hall of Fame quarterback
Listen, if it came up in a Fox graphic, it must be true.
Aaron Rodgers did it well. Jordan Love did it better. The lineage of All-Pro quarterbacks evidently remains safe in Wisconsin, as Love seized his first outing as the Packers’ unquestioned starter and roasted the Chicago Bears. He threw three touchdown passes in a 38-20 rout, all without top wideout Christian Watson.
Love wasn’t brilliant in his debut, he just wasn’t stupid. He found open targets, protected the ball and, importantly, took advantage of a majority of the bad things the Bears did in coverage.
the only explanation i have is Soldier Field was constructed on top of several different sacred burial grounds pic.twitter.com/rIr3TJ2geC
— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) September 10, 2023
The fact remains; Love played a solid game and gave the Packers hope. So are we looking at the NFC North champions?
Verdict: Overreaction, but we all knew this.
Love is still growing into his role, even in his fourth season as a pro. That’s the Packers way. And while comparing him to Rodgers is a basic, frustrating move it’s easy to see how the four-time MVP’s game has shined through in his former protege’s, even if it’s just in spurts.
A thing of beauty. 🏈@RomeoDoubs with another TD catch from @jordan3love!#GBvsCHI | #GoPackGo
📺: FOX pic.twitter.com/9SspVfI0qx
— Green Bay Packers (@packers) September 10, 2023
Hell, blur the numbers and you could make a convincing case that’s a clip from 2018. That’s a good thing!
There are still miles to go before anyone can trust Love to make these throws on a regular basis. While he averaged 9.1 yards per pass, only four of those attempts covered more than 16 yards beyond the line of scrimmage and the only completion was the way-too-easy lob to Luke Musgrave seen above. He mostly excelled with intermediate passes and went five for eight in third-and-long situations but, again, many of his biggest plays were obvious throws to open targets thanks to the Bears’ deficiencies in coverage
When he tried to make these throws his instincts were correct, but the ball skills juuuuuuuust weren’t quite there yet.
I appreciate Jordan Love going for the big boy throw. two high shell, knows the middle hook player wants to open to the passing strength. tries to throw it behind him and under the safety. little too much energy and he leaves the ball out in front. right idea, tough throw pic.twitter.com/HRNCFNq2ju
— Derrik Klassen (@QBKlass) September 11, 2023
Still, Love delivered on the talent that made him a first-round pick and hastened whatever rift may have been growing between Rodgers and the Packers. Now he needs to do it again. And again. And again for about a decade before we can declare him a worthy link in the Green Bay quarterback chain.
4
Josh Allen has gone feral
Allen spent his Tuesday morning getting eviscerated for his role in an opening night loss to the New York Jets. This was not a fluke; the player who’d finished in the top three of MVP voting in two of the last three seasons was legitimately outplayed not by Aaron Rodgers, but by Zach by-god Wilson.
All the elements of early, potential-laden-but-mistake-prone Josh Allen bubbled to the surface in his 2023 debut. Allen was careless with throws downfield, forcing his top wideout to play defensive back on passes destined for Jets safety Jordan Whitehead.
Stefon Diggs with the OPI and he still couldn't keep Jordan Whitehead from picking this off pic.twitter.com/JCEMernDHs
— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) September 12, 2023
Allen had more sacks (five) than completions to any one receiver not named Stefon Diggs. He threw more interceptions than touchdowns. His 2.95 net yards per attempt were the the sixth-lowest mark of his career; four of the five worse games all came prior to 2020.
So, in the worst possible way, is Josh Allen … back?
Verdict: Overreaction, but still troubling
The Bills had all offseason to find a proper WR2 behind Stefon Diggs. They settled on a first round tight end. Dalton Kincaid held up his end of the bargain with four catches on four targets, but they covered just 26 yards. Allen threw 28 passes to non-Diggs players; they caught 19 of them for 134 yards. That’s just 4.8 yards per attempt and seven yards per catch.
Those are garbage numbers, and they may shed some light on why an increasingly frustrated Allen was forcing shots downfield. Buffalo has little in the way of meaningful threats besides Diggs, who is wonderful but still only one man. But it doesn’t excuse Allen’s behavior.
Case in point: Allen’s third interception was a function of Gabe Davis not selling a fake upfield and letting Jordan Whitehead jump his route. It was simultaneously a stupid risk that ignored an open Kincaid with enough room for an easy first down.
Choose Your Own Adventure: You have Dalton Kincaid open underneath on third-and-2, or you can test Sauce Gardner and Jordan Whitehead upfield.
Huh. pic.twitter.com/v8pEL9Q3Ua
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) September 12, 2023
This is the stuff head coach Sean McDermott had hoped he’d channeled into appropriate moments. Instead, we got too much of the early years boom-or-bust Josh Allen when those instincts are really like vanilla extract; amazing as part of an actual recipe and damn near poison on its own. Monday night wasn’t unique; Allen has a 84.7 passer rating since Week 8 of last season. He has 27 total touchdowns and 21 total turnovers in 13 games. Those aren’t Pro Bowl numbers, let alone MVP fodder.
That’s frustrating, but it’s fixable. We know this because McDermott has done it before. Adding Diggs helped unlock new levels of Allen’s game. Now the impetus may be on the Bills to find someone else who can bring him back there before the trade deadline. There could be some interesting names available — Mike Evans? Tyler Boyd? … (whisper voice) Davante Adams? — who could be integral to Buffalo’s offense soaring back to great heights.
5
The Atlanta Falcons just aren't gonna use their top 10 draft picks from 2021 and 2022
Kyle Pitts in Week 1: three targets, two catches, 44 yards
Drake London in Week 1: one target, zero catches
Hmmm. Gross.
But this falls in line with the strategy head coach Arthur Smith has made glaringly obvious over the last two seasons. In 2022, his 24.4 pass attempts per game were second-lowest in the NFL. In Week 1, no starting quarterback threw fewer passes than Desmond Ridder’s 18. Only one of those throws traveled more than 12 yards downfield.
Instead, the offense has been carried by a dynamic young pair of tailbacks. Tyler Allgeier and 2023’s eighth overall pick Bijan Robinson combined to score all three of their team’s touchdowns in a 24-10 win over the Carolina Panthers. They ran the ball or were targeted on 34 of the team’s 43 non-sack, non-kneeldown plays. This offense runs through the backfield, regardless of how talented Pitts and London may be.
Verdict: Probably an overreaction. Let’s hope.
Week 1 was how Arthur Smith wanted it. Mostly because his team led for a good chunk of the game. But Smith’s plans didn’t change all that much when the Panthers took a 10-7 lead in the third quarter. Across six plays in that situation he ran the ball four times, threw one medium-long pass to Pitts and a screen to Allgeier.
But there isn’t much agency to be found when you’re only down three to a rookie quarterback and an overmatched opponent with 25 minutes left in regulation. Smith played his cards close to the vest and revealed little about his passing game other than the fact he’ll use play-action to help facilitate it. London and Pitts remain vital assets when Atlanta needs a spark — the Falcons just didn’t really need one in Week 1.
That leaves Pitts and London frustrating from a fantasy standpoint but crucial to their team’s NFC South title hopes. They’re still the guys with the size, athleticism and catch radii to justify their place as top 10 draft picks. We’ll see them soon enough — maybe even in Week 2 against the Packers if Jordan Love keeps playing acceptable football.
