So much can go wrong over the course of a NFL season. Sometimes teams hope they can power through a perceived weakness, either filling holes with unproven talent or patching it with strength elsewhere. Other times, their best laid plans go awry and something that began the year as a strength emerges as the vulnerability opponents exploit en route to deflating defeats.
That leaves us with the benefit of hindsight. We can look back at the 2023 offseason, from coaching personnel decisions to free agency to the draft and say “well, if we’d known how the season was going to unfold, we would have done [insert quick fix here].”
And that’s what we’re gonna do. Welcome to this playoff push edition of the NFL Church of Regret, where we look at the one potentially fatal flaw each team wishes it had patched before the season began.
In the interest of limiting ourselves to the best parts of the final third of 2023, we’ll parse out the franchises that are effectively locked in to playoff spots and the others with nothing to play for but draft position. Using the New York Times’ playoff predictor, there are a dozen teams with a postseason probability ranging between desperate-but-feasible (at least 15 percent) and likely-but-not-locked in (65 percent or lower).
Let’s talk about what they wish they’d done differently last offseason — and how it’s come to bite them, deservedly or not, through 12 weeks of the regular season.
Buffalo Bills
Record: 6-6
Playoff odds: 14%
Regret: Not further replenishing an aging defense.
The Bills made the right moves this offseason. With limited cap space, they addressed offensive weaknesses, upgrading tight end and offensive line with their first two draft picks. This was aimed at boosting Josh Allen’s play and, while uneven, he’s responded with 33 total touchdowns in 12 games. Despite too many interceptions, he’s been a top-five quarterback.
What Buffalo didn’t foresee was another rash of health issues that struck down a once-dominant defense. Tre’Davious White suffered his second season-ending injury in three years. DaQuan Jones, the tone-setter up front, and Matt Milano each exited for the season in the team’s Week 5 London loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars. Since then, a group that gave up 13.8 points per game over its first four games has given up 21.5 — and that’s a stretch that includes games against the inept offenses of the New York Giants, New York Jets and New England Patriots.
Additional depth would have been a boon for 2023 and going forward. The Bills are teetering toward age-based declines at nearly every defensive position. Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer are both on the wrong side of 30. Von Miller is 34 years old. Milano and White are both long in the tooth and coming off significant injuries.
It’s possible the best days of this unit, as currently constructed, are behind it. And even if it’s not, well, having a few extra young studs to fill any injury related gaps sure would help.
Cleveland Browns
Record: 7-4
Playoff odds: 65%
Regret: Deshaun Watson.
No surprise here; trading three first round picks for, then extending a player who had more than 20 accusations of sexual misconduct levied against him — stemming from what an NFL investigation would describe as “predatory behavior” — has failed to be the panacea Cleveland needed. Deshaun Watson has spent considerably more time off the field than on it, either due to injury (2023) or suspension related to the previously mentioned off-field problems.
The problem is, Watson hasn’t been especially good when playing the position he was given a fully guaranteed $230 million to play. Statistics paint him as the league’s 36th-best quarterback since 2022. Narrow that down to 2023 alone and he rates 22nd. That could still be enough to take this team, with its stout blocking and smothering defense, to the playoffs. Winning from there would be its own problem.
Unfortunately for Cleveland, Watson is done for the season and his backups, rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson and XFL legend P.J. Walker, have been considerably worse. The Browns got off to a 7-3 start but remain vulnerable in the AFC playoff race, even with a soft schedule to wrap up 2023. If Myles Garrett’s Week 12 shoulder injury is anything serious, it could be the death knell on another season that started with high hopes and ended in frustration.
Indianapolis Colts
Record: 6-5
Playoff odds: 42%
Regret: A failure to add veteran secondary help.
Trading away Stephon Gilmore last spring made sense at the time. The Colts were headed into a new era with a rookie quarterback set to take over. Gilmore was about to turn 33 years old. Dealing him then brought back draft considerations for a team in the midst of a rebuild.
But the Colts could have used a veteran leader like Gilmore, who has allowed just a 68.1 passer rating in coverage for Dallas this season. Indianapolis’ secondary has been solid in spurts, but the team’s lack of standouts has meant lots of safety help in an effort to create a rising tide of helpers across the field.
That’s not inherently bad, but it does limit what the team’s defense can do when it comes to bringing pressure. The Colts’ 14.6 percent blitz rate is the lowest in the league.
Having a cornerback who can operate on an island or a do-it-all safety who could be trusted as a cover-1 eraser would free that defense up to bring more pass rushers and let a talented young(ish) front feast. Indy generates pressure at a slightly below average 20.1 percent clip this fall despite that lack of extra pass rushers. Imagine what it could do to AFC quarterbacks with a steady diet of blitzers.
Houston Texans
Record: 6-5
Playoff odds: 63%
Regret: Not adding additional veteran pass rushing help.
This is a regret that can be applied to a few spots across the defense — including inside linebacker and safety, notably. Of course, there was plenty of logic allowing the team’s young prospects to sort themselves out for a team still divining its identity. Year one of the DeMeco Ryans era was supposed to showcase potential and determine which former draft picks and low-cost additions could be foundational guys for a future AFC South contender.
Instead, the Texans are ahead of schedule despite a dearth of established stars. It hasn’t been a problem on offense, where C.J. Stroud, Tank Dell, Nico Collins and more have crafted a top-10 offense (though some better blocking would certainly help, particularly in the run game). This factor has been more pronounced on the defensive side of the ball, where Houston would benefit from steady production and veteran leadership at every level.
Let’s start up front. Will Anderson has been better than his sack numbers suggest and Jonathan Greenard a little worse. Maliek Collins remains a useful presence in the middle. Together, those three have combined for nearly two-thirds of the entire team’s QB hit output and 58 percent of its pressures.
As a result, the Texans rank just 25th in sack rate this season (and second-worst when it comes to missed tackles, with 89. Just sayin’). A veteran rotational rusher, a la the best moments of the Jerry Hughes tenure in Houston would have gone a long way in fixing that and, importantly, reduced the stress on a young secondary to hold things together on passing downs. The Texans are allowing opponents to convert 42.4 percent of their third downs this season, 24th-best in the NFL.
Denver Broncos
Record: 6-5
Playoff odds: 28%
Regret: Not reloading the defensive front.
No team in the NFL gives up more yards per carry than the Broncos at 5.4. Granted, a good chunk of that came when the Miami Dolphins ran for 350 yards against them in Week 3, but Denver remains a club that’s given up at least 170 rushing yards five times this fall.
That hasn’t been fatal, but it’s trapped this team in a string of unsustainable close wins (and one loss to Zach Wilson’s New York Jets). The Broncos are 5-3 when allowing at least 100 rushing yards, but four of those wins were aided by multiple turnovers. An opponent looking to protect a lead — and the ball — will have the latitude to grind Sean Payton’s team down to a nub, taking the clock with them.
What’s the problem? Well, a 32-year-old Mike Purcell hasn’t been the immovable force he’d been in the past. Free agent acquisition Zach Allen has always been more useful in the pass rush and Jonathan Harris has failed to exceed expectations after being pegged for more playing time in 2023. This would be less of a problem if things were better at the second level, but Drew Sanders has struggled as a rookie and Alex Singleton remains more of a fill-in than a foundational piece.
Minnesota Vikings
Record: 6-6
Playoff odds: 51%
Regret: Hoping the run game would fix itself.
Well, here we are. Fresh off a primetime loss to the Chicago Bears. And while it’s tempting to blame Joshua Dobbs and his four interceptions for this, let’s keep in mind he was the best of a bad situation and, even with Week 12’s awful result, still outperforming expectations. The fact he’s even gotten Minnesota to a Wild Card coin flip is a testament to the gravity he’s brought to the center of the offense.
His decent overall performance looks even better when you consider how little help he’s gotten from the run game. Trading away Ezra Cleveland didn’t help matters when it came to clearing space and the Vikings’ 2.5 yards before contact on running plays is the fifth-worst mark in the league. Unsurprisingly, that’s led to an underwhelming rushing attack that ranks 25th in yards per carry and 29th in total yards.
Putting that onus on the offensive line, however, doesn’t tell the whole story. Minnesota turned the reins to Alexander Mattison as its top tailback after letting Dalvin Cook leave. His -73 rushing yards over expected (RYOE, which measures a player’s actual gains vs. what an average player would be expected to get in the same situation) are tied for second worst in the NFL. The Vikings understood this problem and added Cam Akers to the rotation… only for Akers to average 3.6 yards per attempt with the team. His -1.05 RYOE per attempt is the worst figure in the league so far.
Green Bay Packers
Record: 5-6
Playoff odds: 50%
Regret: Remaining woefully deficient against the run.
The Packers’ inability to stop the run has been a glaring flaw for years. Over the past decade they’ve only finished in the top 16 in yards allowed per carry three times. They’ve ranked 21st or worse each of the last five years.
That’s already a problem, but in 2023 it’s allowed Green Bay to let some shaky quarterbacks off the hook. Two of the three teams to record at least 200 rushing yards against the Packers started either Desmond Ridder or Kenny Pickett behind center. A Week 7 loss to the then 1-5 Denver Broncos saw Russell Wilson throw for fewer than 200 yards and not have to worry because his run game averaged 5.8 yards per carry.
The problem begins up front. Devonte Wyatt was a 2022 first round pick who has played in less than 50 percent of the team’s defensive snaps and has five missed tackles in 27 opportunities. T.J. Slaton is a useful depth piece forced into a larger role with uneven results. Kenny Clark’s 15.2 percent missed tackle rate is a career worst. They aren’t the only culprits here — De’Vondre Campbell has missed time due to injury and Quay Walker still needs to live up to his first round pedigree — but the team’s inability to clog lanes up front remains a vital issue.
Atlanta Falcons
Record: 5-6
Playoff odds: 63%
Regret: A patchwork pass rush and lack of young defensive stars.
The combination of Kyle Pitts, Bijan Robinson and Drake London — all recent top-10 draft picks — were supposed to be the balm that healed any blisters caused by uneven quarterback play. That hasn’t quite paid off yet, and the concern isn’t just a surprisingly low-key offense. Those investments came at the expense of adding premier pass rushing talent that could have lifted the overall play of a bottom-six defense.
Only four teams in the league have fewer sacks than Atlanta’s 22. Team sack leader Arnold Ebiketie’s 4.5 rank 59th best in the NFL. While he’s got the potential to be more, there isn’t much more to be gleaned from the veterans around him. Calais Campbell, Bud Dupree and David Onyemata have 9.5 sacks between them and each is on the wrong side of 30 years old. Without consistent pressure up front, opponents have found time to target the weak points of the team’s defense; notably going after cornerbacks DeAundre Alford and Jeff Okudah.
Pitts was drafted ahead of Micah Parsons and Patrick Surtain II. London came just ahead of Jordan Davis and Kyle Hamilton, who has a 48.0 passer rating allowed as a wide-ranging safety this fall and ahead of pass rushers like George Karlaftis and Jermaine Johnson. Robinson got the call over Jalen Carter, who has looked like a beast in rotational work in Philly this season. It’s easy to chalk this all up to hindsight, but it’s fair to suggest this season’s Falcons team would have been better off had it not focused on skill players at the top of the last three drafts.
New Orleans Saints
Record: 5-6
Playoff odds: 43%
Regret: Signing Derek Carr to a $150 million contract.
The Saints appreciate continuity. That’s why they kept Dennis Allen around after Sean Payton’s retirement. That’s why they’ve continued to preserve the “buy now, refinance later” salary cap management of general manager Mickey Loomis. It’s why, when tasked with replacing the low-impact quarterbacking of late-stage Drew Brees and, then, Andy Dalton they opted for Carr.
Carr brings stability, especially compared to the high-variance passing of Jameis Winston. But he doesn’t bring much excitement to the equation. He’s one of only four full time starters not to have a fourth quarter comeback this fall. His one game-winning drive in 12 weeks is as many as Bryce Young and Mac Jones.
He’s not bad by any stretch, he’s just sort of … there. And while good coaches can plan around that with clever gameplans and heady drafting — that’s basically Kyle Shanahan’s whole deal — Allen isn’t that guy.
On the plus side, Carr isn’t Brees. His 44 deep throws are tied for sixth most in the league this season (Brees attempted 45 his last two seasons combined). His 1.3 percent interception rate is tied for the NFL low. But he’s also on pace for just 16 touchdown passes this fall and strikes fear into the hearts of zero defensive coordinators. Carr remains good enough to win with a cast of playmakers; with a sudden rash of injuries at wideout that may not be an option.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Record: 4-7
Playoff odds: 15%
Regret: Failing to make meaningful upgrades in the middle of the offensive line.
There’s something to be said about the team’s decision to sign Baker Mayfield. What once looked like a white flag on 2023 with an eye toward the 2024 NFL Draft — Mayfield was 2022’s worst starting quarterback — has instead unlocked a new round of competence from the former first overall pick. His gameplan hasn’t been especially complex, but he finds open wideouts and, when in trouble, defaults to the tried and true strategy of “just give Mike Evans a chance.” It works.
Instead, let’s look at the deficiency that may have had a hand escorting Tom Brady to retirement. The Tampa offensive line struggles to clear space for anyone. 2023 marks the second straight season in which the Bucs have ranked 32nd in the league in yards before contact on run plays (2.1 last year, 2.2 this). Pressure comes up the middle and creates havoc, as evidenced by Mayfield’s 24 scrambles in 11 games — one away from a career high — and his 52 sacks and hits taken.
We saw in Week 12 what that does to an immobile quarterback. A first quarter knee injury limited Mayfield’s runs and left him sacked in three of his final five dropbacks, erasing a comeback bid and pushing the Bucs to the brink of playoff relevance. Even if he continues to exceed expectations as a passer there’s still only so much he’ll get from a run game trapped behind one of the league’s least intimidating blocking schemes.
Los Angeles Rams
Record: 5-6
Playoff odds: 42%
Regret: Being unable to afford veteran defensive help.
There’s been a lot to like in this mini-reset in LA — one that comes with what’s slated to be the team’s first Day 1 draft pick since 2016. A rebuilt offensive line isn’t perfect, but it’s improved Matthew Stafford’s pressure and sack rates while clearing space for Kyren Williams to look like a stud. A young defense has gotten solid returns from third round draft picks Kobie Turner and Byron Young. There’s cause for optimism for a team that’s probably one Stafford injury away from a winning record after 12 weeks.
This, unfortunately, isn’t enough to make the Rams more than a tough out on the way to Super Bowl 58. LA’s defensive DVOA clocks in at 21st in the NFL — down from 18th in 2022 and third in a title-winning 2021. This wasn’t unexpected; only two players who started at least 10 games for the team last year returned. Aaron Donald remains a stalwart (even if his sack numbers aren’t quite on par with his usual absurd output) and Ernest Jones continues to grow into a useful off-ball linebacker.
After that, however, things get dicey. A secondary of spare parts and a limited edge rush has failed to create the havoc plays that can swing a game. After ranking 10th in turnovers forced in ’21 and 17th last fall, the Rams are down to 30th with nine turnovers (five interceptions, four fumbles) in 2023. LA has the chops to out-gain opponents and is trending upward at the right time. But unless that defense can come together and erase drives with game-changing takeaways, that may not matter.
Seattle Seahawks
Record: 6-5
Playoff odds: 35%
Regret: Not investing in extra offensive line depth.
The Seahawks’ biggest problem is an ability to come through in clutch situations. Their 31.3 third down conversion rate is 29th best in the league. They’ve turned only 17 of 36 red zone possessions into touchdowns, the 25th-best rate of 2023. For a team stocked with notable skill players — DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Kenneth Walker, Jaxon Smith-Njigba — there’s no reliable outlet to churn out vital yards.
There are a few culprits for this. Lockett’s catch rate and efficiency numbers are down. Geno Smith hasn’t played up to his 2022 level and looks fairly average among starting quarterbacks. But the biggest issue — the one bleeding into everything else — is the fact only two linemen have been healthy enough to play at least 70 percent of the team’s offensive snaps this season.
Having to rely heavily on blockers like Stone Forsythe (136 snaps his first two seasons), Anthony Bradford (fourth round rookie, zero offensive snaps in Weeks 1 and 2) or Jake Curhan (34 total snaps in 2022) was always going to increase the difficulty level. As a result Smith is getting pressured on nearly a quarter of his dropbacks and finding less room to run than ever before. That’s keeping the offense off schedule, which is creating third-and-long situations, which breeds the awful third down and red zone conversion rates that threaten to keep Seattle out of the playoffs.
