The next Conservative leader will face a vital decision. Let’s call it the ‘rivers of blood’ test

A demonstration supporting Enoch Powell’s anti-immigration views in the early 1970s. Photograph: Evening Standard/Getty Images

The last four times the Tories chose their leader, the rest of the UK was obliged to pay attention because the winner of the process would automatically become prime minister. The stakes this year are much lower. The prize is stewardship of a battered party reduced to a 121-seat rump in the Commons, exiled far from government.

The next leader’s first challenge will be adapting to a spectacular fall from relevance. There are nuances to be teased out of July’s election results, but the main message was an instruction to Tories from voters to shut up and leave them alone.