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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
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Larry Elliott

The next big financial crisis may be brewing. Warning signs are already there

Donald Trump and Jerome Powell, now the US Federal Reserve chair, in 2017.
Donald Trump and Jerome Powell, now the US Federal Reserve chair, in 2017. Photograph: Carlos Barría/Reuters

US job creation has stalled and, despite the curbs on migration, unemployment is rising. Tariffs are pushing up the cost of imports. And Donald Trump is at war with the governor of his own central bank and wants him out.

But traders on Wall Street are not bothered by the fact that inflation is above the target or that growth is slowing. Share prices are testing new record levels on an almost daily basis. Jerome Powell, the man Trump wants to be rid of, says stocks are “fairly highly valued”, which is an understatement if ever there was one. By historical standards, stocks are extremely highly valued. There is trouble – perhaps big trouble – ahead.

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