To tinker or not to tinker — that is the question.
In truth, It has long tended to be the question at this time of year, when Wales are preparing for their third game of the November Tests.
Usually, it’s against a side from outside world rugby’s top tier.
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Warren Gatland often used the slot to experiment. Sometimes, problems arose as against Fiji in 2010 when Wales drew 16-16 and the coach relieved Ryan Jones of the captaincy, and against Japan in 2016 when Sam Davies rescued the side’s blushes by figuring off the bench to smack home an 80th-minute drop goal that secured a 33-30 win.
But in 2018, Gatland got it right when his team posted a 74-24 win over Tonga.
What’s it to be this time?
Wayne Pivac has hinted Wales will go strong against Georgia on Saturday, but fielding a load of frontliners carries the risk of injuries ahead of the series-defining clash with Australia a week on.
For Pivac, then, it’s a major test in selection. Here’s the mix and match team that maybe he needs to pick.
15. Louis Rees-Zammit
It’s still early days, but what a joy it was to see Rees-Zammit set sail with his first touch of the ball as an international full-back. Of course, he needs to learn more about the position, but he has terrifying pace, armour-plated confidence and showed enough against Argentina to merit another run in the role.
14. Alex Cuthbert
Considering it was his first game in four months, Cuthbert did well enough against Argentina, making few mistakes and looking to run. A game this weekend would only benefit him ahead of the Australia match.
13. Owen Watkin
This one is no reflection on George North’s effort against Argentina. The 6ft 4in, 17st 2lb Osprey had a strong game, especially in defence, where he was a dominant figure. But it wouldn’t be the worst idea to give North a weekend off after such a physical match, in readiness for the potential acid test against Australia on the final weekend of the autumn campaign.
Watkin is powerful and a fine defender himself. He looks on course to go to the World Cup next year but would benefit from a Test start and knowing that Pivac trusts him to man the front line. Also, an outing in the run-on side would sharpen him up for the game with the Wallabies.
12. Nick Tompkins
He’s been whipped off early in Wales’ two previous games this month and won’t be available for the final match of the November campaign as he’s based in England. But Tompkins is another one who’s heading for the global tournament in France and it wouldn’t hurt for Wales to allow their three main centres to get used to playing alongside each other.
11. Rio Dyer
His enthusiasm is infectious and he’s made a very encouraging start to his Test career, not looking out of place in any respect. If Josh Adams is fit there’s a case for easing him back via the bench after his recent absence. Dyer has shown he can deliver at this level.
10. Gareth Anscombe
He needs rugby. Wales’ backline didn’t ignite against Argentina with Anscombe not at his absolute best, but it still seems likely Pivac will start him against the Wallabies. A confidence-boosting effort against Georgia could be just the job for the 31-year-old.
9. Keiran Hardy
Again, like George North, Tomos Williams sitting the Georgia game out would not be a comment on how he played against Argentina. He was into everything and then a bit more, scoring a try and staying on the pitch for the full 80 minutes. After two tough matches, in which he has done well, he could profit from having time off ahead of the Wallabies encounter.
It would be a chance for Hardy to once again demonstrate his worth as a starter.
The Scarlet showed up strongly against South Africa in the summer and is fast and alert. He would also have a point to prove after seeing Williams start the first two games of the campaign ahead of him.
1. Nicky Smith
He’s been having an excellent campaign with the Ospreys at regional level and Wales need to give him exposure as a starter in Test rugby, to allow him the chance to put down a marker for the World Cup. It wouldn’t be fair for such a fine player’s autumn campaign to be remembered for the dummy he bought off Ardie Savea in the New Zealand match. Smith is a solid set-piece operator who has a big workrate around the field, with his ability to achieve turnovers a major plus.
Gareth Thomas is a strong favourite to feature in the run-on side against the Wallabies after his effort against Argentina. But Smith deserves an opportunity against Georgia.
2. Ryan Elias
Maybe Ken Owens would want to play — he missed a lot of rugby in the year that he was out because of injury, after all. On the other hand, The Sheriff has been at the heart of two relentlessly physical Tests, leading from the front and not sparing himself in the slightest. He’s another one who should keep his diary clear for November 26, because he’ll be wanted to face Australia as a starter.
But he’s also 36 in seven weeks’ time. Letting him put his feet up for the weekend, ahead of the Test with the Wallabies, would be a decent call.
There's also the point that Elias had a very good campaign last term. He would relish an opportunity to be on from the first whistle. Bradley Roberts, who started the campaign superbly for the Dragons, could figure off the bench.
3. Tomas Francis
He was smiling as he walked through the mixed zone after the Argentina match, not obviously nursing a bump of any sort.
Dillon Lewis showed up well against the Pumas, who, admittedly, were not the scrummaging force of old. Lewis achieved a nice turnover and worked hard as a tackler and carrier. At the very least he’s given Pivac a decision to make for the Australia Test.
But the suspicion is Francis is still Wales’ strongest scrummaging tighthead. Giving him the No. 3 shirt would give him the platform to make that very point and put a case together for the Wallabies game.
4. Ben Carter
A tough call. There again, as Warren Gatland once sort of said, if you can’t have a look at the odd youngster or two in a home game against second-tier opposition then when can you do so?
Wales have to see if Carter can cope at Test level. They have to find out whether or not he should be in their second-row pool at the World Cup next year.
They know about Alun Wyn Jones. Maybe name the former Wales captain on the bench as insurance, with the probability being that Jones will start against Australia after Will Rowlands’ injury.
5. Adam Beard
Beard provided one of the key moments in Saturday’s game when the 6ft 8in lock pulled off a turnover just five metres from Wales’ line with Argentina threatening. He also returned a clean sheet in defence: 12 tackles made, every one nailed. And his lineout work was good.
He'd be the choice to lead this side.
6. Christ Tshiunza
Is he fit? If he is, perhaps the same rule should be applied to him as the one used for Carter. When would you look at Tshiunza as a Test starter, if not against second-tier opposition at home?
Is he the hybrid player Wales want in their back five for the World Cup?
Well, he is 6ft 6in and has featured at second row and on either flank. He’s also strong and mobile and can provide a lineout option.
Picking him in the lead XV would allow Pivac to learn out more about him.
7. Jac Morgan
If a man has earned the right to pull up a footstool, sit back in a comfortable chair and spend a Saturday afternoon relaxing, it’s Justin Tipuric, who has been in the thick of the action on successive weekends against New Zealand and Argentina, making a prodigious 41 tackles and operating at the top of his game.
His worth to Wales can hardly be overstated.
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Resting him ahead of the game with Australia would seem a decent call, then.
Morgan will let no-one down, with the youngster performing exceptionally off the bench against Argentina. When Warren Gatland says you’ve played like ‘a man possessed’, you can be happy with your day’s work. In Cardiff on Saturday evening, the physical and ultra-committed Morgan had every right to feel content. You can read more about Gatland's thoughts here.
8. Taulupe Faletau
In a perfect world Wales would be able to cotton-wool this guy, as well.
But they don’t have another specialist No. 8 in their squad right now. They could opt to draft in, say, Ross Moriarty, after the injury to Dan Lydiate, but assuming they stick with what they’ve got, then they probably need Faletau to start, maybe with Josh Macleod on the bench.
Faletau is operating on an extraordinarily high plane. Like Tipuric, he has made 41 tackles over two games, in his case without missing a single one. And he has made 25 carries that have yielded 103 metres. On Saturday, he also packed in some minutes as an emergency lock during his man-of-the-match display.
Ideally, he’d have a rest for the Georgia game. But Wales may have to play him.
If they do, it'll be with every finger crossed.
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