Concerns over ’flying blind’ as routine testing is no longer freely available and less data is being collected
There has been a slight rise in the number of Covid cases in the UK, with more people being admitted to hospital including those requiring intensive care.
A descendant of Omicron, Eris – or EG.5.1 – was first classified as a variant in the UK on 31 July, but now accounts for one in seven new Covid cases.
It is the second most prevalent variant in the UK after Arcturus, which accounts for 39.4% of cases, according to the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA)
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As of 29 July, 789,695 people across the UK had symptomatic Covid, with the highest rates recorded in the South West. With routine testing no longer freely available, the real number could well be higher.
“What worries me most is if we get a repeat of the last winter NHS crisis this winter again, with Covid, flu and RSV all hitting around the same time,” Christina Pagel, professor of operational research at University College London, told The Guardian. “We are definitely flying near blind.”
The US is also witnessing a rise in case numbers, which could signal “the first glimpse of the coronavirus as a post-pandemic, seasonal threat, a permanent fixture of the infectious disease landscape”, said The New York Times.
Why is Covid back?
There are plenty of reasons why Covid could be making a comeback, experts say, with waning immunity among them. Last autumn, people over 50 were urged to have a booster, but uptake in England was not all that high; just 40% for people in their early 50s, and 52% for those in their later 50s, reported The Telegraph.
On top of that, the unseasonably bad weather this summer might be keeping people indoors in poorly ventilated rooms, rather than being outside in the fresh air. Conversely, in southern parts of the US, dangerously high temperatures have also kept people indoors, says Wired.
“It shows something we all know – that the virus is still lurking and that it is dangerous to be complacent,” Professor Lawrence Young, a virologist at Warwick University, told the The Times.
Scientists have also identified a genetic mutation that is linked to a higher likelihood of avoiding symptoms during infection, according to the science journal Nature. This could make it more likely that the virus is being spread by people who don’t realise they have it.
What is Eris?
A new Covid variant, scientifically known as EG.5.1 and descended from Omicron, has been identified, according to Sky News. The emergence of the new variant, which is spreading quickly, could also help explain the rise. Data suggests it now accounts for 14.6% of cases – making it the second most prevalent in the UK. The most dominant variant is Arcturus XBB.1.16 – another descendant of Omicron – which makes up almost 40% of all cases.
What about elsewhere?
Other countries have seen a rise in Covid cases, particularly Asia, with Singapore, India and Indonesia all reporting an increase in April, according to Bloomberg.
In the US, infections and hospitalisations are also on the rise, with the highest increases in the northeast and south, followed by the west and Midwest. However, most deaths from the virus now occur in adults older than 75 and overall deaths from the virus are at their lowest since the pandemic began.
Yet Covid is likely to remain one of the leading causes of death in the United States for the foreseeable future, Justin Lessler, an epidemiologist at the UNC Gillings School of Global Public Health, told The New York Times. Health services could still struggle with any surge of patients over the autumn and winter. Experts also have a “hazier” view than they have had in previous years, reports Wired, with less data being collected by government organisations.
How worried should we be?
Overall the rise in Covid cases and hospitalisations is very slight, and nowhere near the levels seen at the height of the pandemic. No researchers foresee a return to the worst days of the pandemic, said The New York Times, while the elderly account for the vast majority of the rise in hospital admissions.
Even so Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director-general of the World Health Organization, has said that people “should not let down their guard”. As ever with Covid, the risk will depend on an individual’s health and age. Those who are generally healthy and have either had the virus before or been vaccinated are unlikely to get seriously ill, while older generations and those with underlying medical health issues might be at higher risk. The seasonal vaccine will be available in the autumn in the UK for those who are eligible due to health conditions or age.
Experts will wait to see what the coming months bring, but for now: “Overall levels of admission still remain extremely low and we are not currently seeing a similar increase in ICU admissions,” said Dr Mary Ramsay, head of immunisation at the UKHSA.
