“The nation’s finances have deteriorated” since President Trump took office, driven by sweeping legislative and trade policy changes, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB). The nonpartisan watchdog noted that the Congressional Budget Office’s January 2025 budget outlook “already showed a worrisome fiscal outlook,” but developments since mean a widening deficit. The CRFB gamed out several scenarios, including an adjusted baseline which accounts for “most legislative and administrative changes but not economic and technical changes.” The CRFB also included an alternative scenario in which the U.S. Trade Court’s ruling that many of Trump’s tariffs are illegal is upheld; temporary provisions of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act are made permanent; and yields on Treasury securities remain at their current level.
The adjusted baseline shows cumulative deficits are forecast to reach $22.7 trillion, amounting to 6.1% of GDP, with annual deficits climbing from $1.7 trillion in 2025 to $2.6 trillion in 2035. Meanwhile, it sees debt held by the public rising from about 100% of GDP—currently $30 trillion—to 120% of GDP ($53 trillion).
