The Welsh Government and Transport for Wales (TfW) has worked up ambitious multi-billion-pound investment projects to transform rail and integrated bus transport across Wales.
The emerging schemes, from the south to the north, as well as improved cross border services, would play a hugely supportive role in reducing carbon emissions.
However, as the majority of the rail network in Wales is not devolved it will required the UK Government to provide billions for them to to realised, and so helping to address massive under investment in rail enhancement projects in Wales going back decades.
Swansea Bay and West Wales Metro programme emerging priorities to 2029
There is an emerging package of measure to 2029/30 of perhaps £500m to £600m that can be linked to interventions that enable the re-location of employment (eg the DVLA) and public services back to key transport hubs around the region; especially to Neath, Swansea, Carmarthen (which is the best location for a West Wales Parkway), Haverfordwest, etc.
The key interventions include:
Enhanced local rail services west of Swansea all the way to Milford Haven aligned to a range of tactical infrastructure enhancement.
An initial phase of the Swansea/Neath/Llanelli urban area rail Metro including perhaps six new stations on the SWML and Swansea District Line (SDL) such as Morriston, Llandarcy, Penllergaer, Landore, Velindre and Cockett and a new curve connection between the SDL and SWML north of Britton Ferry to allow through service from the SDL direct to Swansea.
This will enable services from Pontarddulais via Neath to Swansea High Street and Bury Port to Swansea High Street
This foundation can form the basis of further expansion into the 2030s aligned to complementary planning guidance re land use around transit.
A range of local bus prioritisation and segregation measures – especially in the urban areas of Swansea, Neath and Llanelli. This work will be aligned with further optimisation of bus networks and greater integration with enhanced rail services. The bus project is also exploring decarbonised fleet options.
A range of station and interchange enhancement to support both local development and more effective rail/bus/active travel integration.
Cardiff and Capital Region Metro emerging priorities to 2029
There is likely a package of priority interventions of £1bn to £1.5bn covering Network Rail’s rail asset (so the responsibly of the Department for Transport and the UK Government) and the Core Valley Lines (so a WG responsibility), bus and active travel measures.
This programme is a subset of, and consistent with, the recently published Cardiff Capital Region Passenger Rail Vision which I helped prepare in 2020/21. That report also set out a range of transport enabled local economic development and regeneration opportunities including Cardiff Parkway, Newport City Centre, Cardiff Central/Cardiff Bay, Bridgend town centre, Merthyr and Pontypridd. It is also consistent with Cardiff Council’s ambitions for schemes like the Cardiff Crossrail in its Transport White Paper.
The major components include:
Some major bus rapid transport and bus segregation/priority measure in and between Newport and Cardiff - this is an opportunity for early implementation of some of the recommendations of the South East Wales Transport Commission.
A package of Core Valley Line enhancement to follow the introduction of new electric tram-train and tri-mode services in 2023/4.
This will include seven or eight further stations to extend the reach of the network (so Ely Mill, Nantgarw, Gabalfa, Upper Boat, Pontypridd Bus Station, Roath Park, etc) and early measures to enable 4tph (trains per hour) on the City Line (which needs Network Rail Cardiff West Junction investment) and Coryton Line (which should have been 4tph the outset) in Cardiff.
This will deliver much enhanced integrated public transport in the most populated part of Wales and will likely be a major component of the Co2 emissions reduction required
Frequency enhancement to Ebbw Valley (4tph) and Maesteg (2tph); like the City and Coryton lines in Cardiff need interventions to give passenger a more useful and appropriate service frequency.
The section of Cardiff Crossrail from Cardiff Central via the Bay to Splott/Tremorfa to and interchange with the SWML at Newport Road/Rover Way (with the potential for the tram-trains to operate onto the SWML serving new local stations and so avoiding potential capacity constraints at Cardiff Central).
The Core Valley Lines extension from Aberdare to Hirwaun providing enhanced access to the Brecon Beacons and the A465.
Some cross Valley bus prioritisation measures to help build the regional strategic passenger transport grid as set out in the Cardiff Capital Region’s Passenger Rail Vision.
North West Corridor (from Cardiff to lower Rhondda Cynon Taff) bus and rapid bus transport measures integrated with 4tph on the City Line and enhanced rail service frequency at Pontyclun in advance of a comprehensive tram-train solution which is likely to be into the early 2030s.
Working with Network Rail to secure early electrification of the Vale of Glamorgan line to Barry/Penarth – this will enable all electric operation of Core Valley Line services to Barry and the application of tram-train to Penarth (and so make possible extension south of Penarth station) and integration of Penarth tram-train services with Crossrail via a new connection at Cardiff Central, and with Coryton line services, which also need conversion to tram-train operations to enable the later link to Radyr (Cardiff Circle)
The South Wales Mainline (SWML) emerging priorities to 2029
Stretching from Milford Haven to Bristol Temple Meads this mainline is a key piece of the UKs transport infrastructure and needs a 10-year enhancement programme of perhaps £1.5bn.
This corridor connects over three million people and is a major component of the UK economy.
This programme will cover:
Line speed and capacity improvements to bring it up to approaching the same capability as the other “mainlines in the UK.
Additional express and all stopper services. Including faster services to Carmarthen and West Wales, and further Bristol Temple Meads to Cardiff services as recommended by Lord Burns’ South East Wales Transport Commission
A number of new stations to support the new all stopper commuter services, including consideration of: Magor, Llanwern, Newport East, Newport West, Cardiff Parkway, Newport Road/Rover Way, Landore and Cockett.
This combination of rail services and stations will deliver the essential public transport backbone across South Wales and are vital to give improved local bus services and bus rapid transit in Newport and East Cardiff something to integrate with. They will also complement further enhancements to the South Wales Metro and the introduction of a Metro in Swansea Bay .
We also need to deliver electrification to Swansea/Carmarthen from Cardiff, and into Bristol Temple Meads; this will help enable all electric rolling stock options on Bristol Temple Meads to -Swansea services and reduce the costs of the Swansea/Neath Urban area Metro.
North Wales Metro emerging priorities to 2029
There is already significant political and regional stakeholder support for an initial programme of perhaps £500m that will help reduce the primacy of car use, especially in North East Wales and help support economic development and regeneration at places like Wrexham, Deeside Industrial Estate and Chester. Priority schemes include:
Introduction of line speed, capacity and reliability enhancements on the North Wales Mainline (NWML), especially in around/Chester; three or four new stations and importantly the introduction of dedicated local all stop commuter services on the NWML which is essential to enable effective rail/bus integration across north Wales
To complement the NWML measure, a range of measure to enable the Borderlands line to support 2tph with new and upgraded stations, including Shotton and Deeside, and service extension to Birkenhead. The full ambition is for 4tph and eventual full integration with the Merseyrail network.
In the longer term NWML electrification and service integration with HS2 via Crewe and Northern Powerhouse Rail
Like in the Cardiff Capital and Swansea Bay city regions, range of complementary bus prioritisation/ segregation measures as part of a comprehensive rail/bus integration programme. Local active travel measures are also being developed.
Bus is perhaps the most institutionally challenging programme, in what still is a de-regulated industry, with multiple private operators and where local authorities have primary responsibility for matters such as bus support grants and highway powers to enable bus lanes and bus priority and segregation.
The biggest benefit TfW can deliver is in enabling multi-modal integrated fares and ticketing so that at least in the main metro urban areas we can deliver, for example, simple multi modal and multi operator fares/tickets and a capped pay as you go multi-modal transport system.
This is not just about an “Oyster Card” type offer – we have to deal with the commercial and contractual relationship between operators and negotiate how fare revenues are apportioned between operators and implement the technical systems and infrastructure to enable this commercial back office integration This this is not a trivial challenge and the team at TfW is making good progress in a collaborative approach with bus operators.
I suspect legislation will ultimately also be required to make it easier for and TfW to procure franchised bus services.
Next steps and challenge
This is the first time in Wales that we have managed to develop strategic programmes for major multi-modal transport schemes at this scale, and over the next 12-18 months these programmes will, in most cases, move through to outline and/or full business case status.
Many of these schemes will likely appear in a new Welsh Government National Transport Plan which may be available for consultation later this year. So, credit to WG for supporting and enabling this work.
However, these emerging programmes lead to an obvious question.. That is, why Network Rail and the Department of Transport, as the custodians of the Wales rail network over the last 20 years, were never able to bring forward some of the positive schemes?
For me this is a manifestation of the systemic failure of the UK rail industry ecosystem and further exemplifies the need to fully devolve rail powers and funding to the Welsh Government.
Aside from ongoing development funding, much of what is needed requires capital funding of about £3.5bn to £4bn over 10-15 years to build, with services that may require £30-50m in additional operational subsidy.
This challenge is complicated by the fact that much of the rail asset (apart from the Core Valley Line) is Network Rail kit and so the responsibility of the UK Government and a transport and planning ecosystem that favours and subsidises car use.
So, to have any chance of delivering these programmes and broader decarbonisation objectives, in my view we need:
Serious UK Government engagement and commitment to lead the funding of the Network Rail elements to complement Welsh contributions. A joint Welsh Government and UK Government commitment could be pitched as a decarbonisation, sustainable economic development and levelling up programme.
The current Cardiff Capital Region City Deal and North Wales Growth Deal could be modified to formally include these regional Metro programmes to 2030, while the City Deal for the Swansea Bay City Region could be revised to include the emerging rail plans for its region.
The roles of Growth Track 360 and the Western Gateway could also be important in providing cross-border stakeholder support, as could the North Wales Transport Commission.
