For the past year, you’ve probably heard that a recession is on the horizon. Though economists have been predicting a downturn for months, a recession seems nowhere in sight: the labor market is strong, the stock market is thriving, and inflation has cooled since last year. So, where is the recession, and why do people still think it will happen?
To predict a recession, economists look at certain indicators with a solid track record of signaling a downturn. One of those indicators is the yield curve. And right now, the yield curve is flashing red.
