Just two weeks ago, alarm bells rang in Milwaukee. The Bucks started the season 2-8. They fell below .500 for the first time in the Doc Rivers era. Khris Middleton’s absence was loud and apparent. Their starting lineup, outside of Giannis Antetokounmpo’s brilliance, looked old.
For his part, Antetokounmpo was applying pressure in the media, talking about this season’s expectations and how they were not meeting the moment. The Lillard-Antetokounmpo connection was still working through the kinks. The defense looked unsalvageable. The lack of depth was putrid for a team with championship aspirations.
But that was two weeks ago. The NBA moves quickly.
The Bucks are 9-1 in their last 10 games, have won seven in a row, and are now a top-10 offense and top-15 defense. At 11-9 overall, they’re fifth and climbing in the lowly Eastern Conference. Antetokounmpo continues to play like an MVP, somehow reaching new heights as an all-time great. Lillard is sacrificing, buying into their offensive scheme, and trending in the right direction. Rivers has leaned more on their youth, with Andre Jackson Jr. and AJ Green providing a boost on both ends. As a bonus, Middleton is ramping up and on his way.
But what specifically has changed to turn the Bucks’ season around?
Role Players, Playing Their Roles
The season’s first 20 to 35 games are about figuring out the different configurations that work for each team. The Bucks’ process was grueling, but it seems they’ve found what works after slotting Andre Jackson Jr. into the starting lineup in place of Gary Trent Jr.
Jackson’s combination of size, length and speed has given the Bucks’ defense a major boost. With Trent as a starter alongside Antetkounmpo, Lillard, Brook Lopez and Taurean Prince, Milwaukee’s defense allowed more than 117 points per 100 possessions. Swap Jackson in place of Trent and that number falls to just over 111 — equivalent to the difference between an 11th-ranked and 24th-ranked defense.
On a team starved for help at the point of attack, Jackson has come in and provided just the right boost to insulate Lillard by taking tougher perimeter assignments and funneling drivers toward Antetokoumpo and Lopez.
Andre Jackson put on an absolute clinic last night.
Fantastic defense, bringing the energy, making all of the right plays on offense and in transition. He was incredible. pic.twitter.com/4SgJ2m5WVV
— Nathan Marzion (@nathanmarzion) November 8, 2024
It also helps that players elsewhere are competing. Prince, Trent and Green have their limitations defensively, but they’ve all done a better job of staying connected and adhering to the Bucks’ conservative scheme, allowing Lopez and Antetokounmpo to clean things up inside. Also, those guys are finally shooting the ball well.
During this 10-game stretch, Prince is knocking down nearly 60 percent of his threes on four-plus attempts a night. Trent, who started the season shooting a woeful 23 percent from three, is making 52 percent of his triples over that same span; neither is in line for a career 39 percent outside shooter, but he’s finally averaging out to hit shots like he’s done for seven NBA seasons. Lopez started the season shooting 27 percent from three and is drilling over 42 percent of his looks amid this 9-1 run.
Green, the Bucks sharpshooter, has already taken 95 threes (compared to just nine two-pointers), and has made 49.5 percent of them. He’s been a marksman. While you might think he’s picked on defensively, he surprisingly more than holds his own. He’s moving his feet, staying with defenders laterally and has a great knack for getting into the passing lanes.
AJ Green defense vs Chicago Bulls pic.twitter.com/vdqcr7GfBM
— Maxence (@Xenceee) November 21, 2024
These revelations have led the Bucks to find a potent lineup while Antetokounmpo is on the bench. Lopez, Bobby Portis, Lillard, Green and Trent have played over 70 minutes together. It’s the third-most common five-man lineup for the Bucks, which have a plus-26.8 net rating in those minutes. There’s a lot of good happening on the court in those situations, despite Antetokounmpo’s absence.
Antetokounmpo And Lillard Are Evolving
No team can see success like the Bucks have lately without their stars performing.
Antetokounmpo is enjoying a career year, even by his standards. He’s averaging a league-best 32.7 points (63.6 percent true shooting), nabbing 11.7 rebounds, dishing out 6.7 assists and blocking 1.4 shots. And as he ages, the 30-year-old, two-time MVP is evolving his game.
That evolution is in the midrange, where long twos consume a career-high 19 percent of his total shots. He’s made 36 of his 73 shots there — on pace to crush his career-high of 289 attempts from 2017-18. It’s a potent counter for teams that try to wall off the paint from his downhill attacks, and he’s become more comfortable settling into looks in various ways.
Every mid range bucket from Giannis so far this season. He’s 38/79 from mid range on the year. pic.twitter.com/9K5w8VEC5M
— Alex (@AlexHoops_) December 4, 2024
Lillard is doing his part to adapt as well. While he’s bouncing back as a shooter this season, hitting on nearly 37 percent of his threes, the way he’s seeking them out has slightly changed. Although the pull-up shooting hasn’t shifted and is a necessary part of the Bucks’ offense, Lillard is taking nearly two more catch-and-shoot threes per game than last season.
He’s already had 50 spot-up opportunities this season, according to Synergy. That’s on pace to smash his 174 possessions from last year. The Bucks have been using him more as a screener, putting him one pass away from Antetokounmpo in the post, and utilizing his lethal shooting ability to create more space for their MVP big man.
Dame as a screener for Giannis, Phew. pic.twitter.com/4guoUB4k8P
— Esfandiar Baraheni (@JustEsBaraheni) December 4, 2024
Milwaukee has found a way to win through this trial-and-error process. Admittedly, it’s been an easy schedule. During this 9-1 stretch games, the Bucks have beaten the Detroit Pistons and Charlotte Hornets twice, as well as the Washington Wizards, Chicago Bulls and injury plagued Toronto Raptors. But those are teams they should be dominating in the first place. And now they are.
But with Middleton set to come back at some point this month and Milwaukee now touting newfound depth, perhaps it can take an even bigger step and become the contenders we all expected them to be.
It’s still a long road and season. Things can change quickly — again. The Bucks have taught us that over the past month.
But at the very least, they’re trending in the right direction. Led by an MVP superstar, All-NBA co-star and blossoming supporting cast, here comes Milwaukee.
