Although the stock market is now celebrating the announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, recent headlines have mostly been filled with gloomy forecasts about an upcoming global energy shock, supply deficits, and the inevitable decline of the global economy. I will not argue with the fact that a protracted war and interruptions in oil supplies are a negative scenario for the whole world. However, in my view, in this panic, one fundamental macroeconomic nuance is missed: in geopolitics and economics everything is relative.
I am inclined to believe that during a global storm, the winner is not the one who manages to grow, but the one who falls slower than the others. And if we look at the current configuration through the prism of relativity, a highly paradoxical picture emerges.
