The Miami Dolphins will play their most important game of the year on Thursday against the Green Bay Packers. The team from South Florida has won three straight after starting the season with a 2-6 record, and are very much alive in the AFC Wild Card race with just six games left to play.
Dolphins Have Struggled Historically In Cold Weather Games
But the game-time temperature in northern Wisconsin for the Thanksgiving Day matchup is expected to be well below the 40-degree mark, which could spell doom for the Dolphins if history is any indication.
It is the narrative that Tua Tagovailoa and the rest of the team are trying to put to rest. Over the past 20 years, the Dolphins are 15-43 when the temperature at kickoff is 50 degrees or below, including 2-20 in their last 22 games. When the temperature is below 40, they are 8-19, and have lost 11 in a row.
| Date | Game Time Temperature | Matchup & Result |
| Jan. 8, 2017 | 17 degrees | Steelers over Dolphins, 30-12 |
| Dec. 17, 2017 | 22 degrees | Bills over Dolphins, 24-16 |
| Dec. 24, 2017 | 23 degrees | Chiefs over Dolphins, 29-13 |
| Nov. 11, 2018 | 33 degrees | Packers over Dolphins, 31-12 |
| Dec. 30, 2018 | 33 degrees | Bills over Dolphins, 42-17 |
| Nov. 24, 2019 | 39 degrees | Browns over Dolphins 41-24 |
| Jan. 3, 2021 | 35 degrees | Bills over Dolphins. 56-26 |
| Dec. 4, 2022 | 38 degrees | 49ers over Dolphins, 33-17 |
| Dec. 17, 2022 | 29 degrees | Bills over Dolphins, 32-29 |
| Jan. 15, 2023 | 27 degrees | Bills over Dolphins, 34-31 |
| Jan. 13, 2024 | -4 degrees | Chiefs over Dolphins, 26-7 |
It is one of the contributing reasons to why Miami hasn’t won a playoff game since the year 2000, representing the longest streak in North American sports.
If the Dolphins want to keep their season alive, they’ll have to buck the trend this coming Thursday. Or as quarterback Tua Tagovailoa stated on Sunday, they’ll need to “kill narratives” by going into a cold environment, on the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field, no less, in order to stay afloat in the AFC.
Tua Tagovailoa on playing in the cold vs. the Packers on Thanksgiving: “I’m excited to kill narratives. Let’s go. Bring it on.” pic.twitter.com/4i0x0v5mYC
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) November 25, 2024
Cold weather or not, Miami has struggled against Green Bay over the last couple of decades. Since 2002, the Dolphins are 1-5 against the Packers overall, with the lone win coming in an overtime contest in 2010.
The Packers have won 6 of their past 7 games overall, with their only loss since September coming at the hands of the mighty Detroit Lions. But before their dominant win over the banged up 49ers in Week 12, their previous three victories came by a total of just 6 points.
The early betting line for the Thanksgiving Day showdown has the home team favored by 3.5 points.
