The combined influences of Brexit, coronavirus and climate change could mean some parts of Wales will be considerably worse off than a few years ago.
However, the triple whammy effect of a global pandemic, exiting the EU and global warming could also bring some opportunities that would see communities thrive. A report, published by Public Health Wales (PHW) on Tuesday, focused on rural communities across Wales and looked at how the three biggest issues of recent times could bring a range of opportunities as well as negative impacts to navigate.
People increasingly working from home and more people wanting to move to the countryside could see rural communities enjoying a real upturn in their fortunes. Liz Green, consultant in public health, policy and international health for PHW, said: “Rural environments and communities have become much more attractive to live and work in during the pandemic period, mainly due to the increased focus on home working that promotes a more flexible approach for workers and their families."
While that may lead to an increased number of sustainable services and facilities, there is also a flip side: It could also mean locals are priced out of the local housing market, an issue already being seen in parts of Wales as the second homes crisis continues. Rural communities will also need the right digital infrastructure and accessibility if they are to benefit from the opportunities and people will need to improve their "digital literacy".
With generally older people living in rural areas compared to urban communities and a reliance on agriculture, rural health, well-being and equity could suffer in the coming years, PHW said. A quarter of those living in rural communities are of retirement age, while nearly a third work in the agricultural industry.
These are the ways - good and bad - the three hot topics of Covid, Brexit and climate change could have a massive impact on rural parts of Wales, according to PHW.
Access to health and social care services
Positives
Less travel to appointments - digitalisation and artificial intelligence, spurred on by the Covid-19 pandemic and EU exit, could help to accelerate new ways of healthcare working meaning older people or those less well-off won't need to travel to appointments
Negatives
Increased costs in providing health services- it's more difficult to achieve economies of scale, and more staff are needed per head of the population to deliver health and care services, in rural communities
Increased waiting times - the pandemic has had a greater detrimental effect on hospital waiting times in rural and remote trusts across the UK than for more urban areas
Difficulty recruiting workers - changes in working practices and Brexit could have an especially disproportionate impact on smaller healthcare practices and health facilities in more rural communities
Access to digital and communications services
Positives
A boost to digital skills and broadband - could help rural businesses to diversify and develop innovatively
A more level playing field - better ICT skills and digital connectivity could see rural areas catch up with urban ones
Narrowing the divide in broadband coverage - urban areas tend to have better super or ultrafast broadband
Increased loneliness - a shift from 'out-of-home' to 'in-home' lifestyles and more physically and socially isolated living is more keenly felt in rural areas. These impacts are potentially acute for those already suffering from rural vulnerability, loneliness and social isolation
Negatives
Difficulties with home working and home schooling - weaknesses in internet provision and the coverage, strength and reliability of internet connections and mobile phone signals has made it hard for some rural residents to work effectively from home and to access online services during the pandemic
Less funding available - Brexit means less money from the CAP and EU structural funds which could mean less money to help develop digital connectivity and therefore less opportunity to develop new, more innovative activities, seek new opportunities and to connect to new markets
Movement of people and migration
Positives
Skilled workers moving to rural areas - the move to home-working means skilled workers are increasingly moving from more urban communities to rural communities
Fewer rural second homes - second homes could increasingly become first homes/main homes as people move out of the cities with the knock on effect of local community diversification, regeneration or economic, social and sustainable growth. Read more about the impact of second homes in Wales here.
Increased recruitment from other non-European areas - the negative impact of Brexit could be offset by increased recruitment from outside the European Economic Area (EEA), with health boards in rural Wales regularly running recruitment campaigns in countries such as New Zealand
Negatives
Undermining efforts of urban regeneration - households moving from denser locations to more rural ones could leave urban centres emptier and less attractive places to live
Businesses forced to close due to lack of staff - many rural businesses depend on migrant workers for agribusiness, tourism, food production and health and social care. With the effects of Brexit influencing migrant workers, some of these businesses may be forced to close
Employment
Positives
More employment opportunities - technology could help bridge the geographic inequality in the UK as people are now able to work from anywhere
Return to rural areas - home working means young people and young adults who want to remain in, or return to, rural communities are able to do so. For Wales, this could have potential positive implications for the Welsh language
More opportunity for 'Welshness' - freedom from the CAP post-Brexit could bring new opportunities for Welsh-specific land management policy and environmental protections for rural agriculture
Negatives
More economic insecurity and job anxiety - rural communities in Wales have a higher than national average level of self-employment which could offer precarious employment only or the added responsibility of running their own business
Lack of seasonal workers - the pandemic and Brexit have had a major impact on the seasonal migrant workforce mainly due to migration regulation and visa changes and quarantine.
Anxiety about climate change - farmers and fishermen are at a higher risk of developing depression, anxiety and other mental health related problems, including suicide due to drought related pressures and climate variability and their potential impact on economic livelihood
Poorer mental health and well-being - evidence indicates Brexit could exacerbate this issue in rural communities through recruitment challenges, decreased opportunities to export goods and a historic dependency on EU funding
Tourism and hospitality
Positives
More visitors to Wales - more people visited Wales when unable to travel outside of the UK for holidays heading for countryside, mountain and rural coastal destinations especially, with Snowdonia, Pembrokeshire and mid-Wales the most popular areas
More tourists from overseas - more visitors from within and outside the UK could benefit Wales’ significant nonindustrial coastline and designated landscapes offering existing farms in Wales an opportunity to diversify into leisure and recreational activities, with agri-tourism becoming an important source of income
Negatives
Lack of demand - tourism-reliant businesses, such as campsites, rural attractions, pubs and shops, have received reduced incomes or were forced to close as a result of a curb on non-essential travel and may never re-open
Small business funding cut - Brexit means less EU funding for small tourism businesses, with domestic funding not matching what was previously provided. Brexit has also led to workforce challenges in the tourism and hospitality industry with changes to immigration rules leaving shortages in many rural communities
Do you live in a rural area? Tell us what challenges and opportunities you're facing in the comments section below
Local foundational economies
Positives
More time in local areas - Individuals and their families used centres located near to them during Covid rather than travelling further afield and thus spent a greater amount of time in their local areas including in more rural locations
Greater appeal - rural locations have become more attractive to many due to the flexibility of home working, with the Welsh Government aiming for 30% of the population to be working remotely
Exploring local revenue streams - Brexit provides an opportunity to re-orientate land management policy drivers in Wales including exploring local revenue streams which would boost local foundational economies
More favourable growing conditions - climate change could lead to changes in land use in rural areas with some land in Wales having a huge potential for the growth of some types of fruit and vegetables to be produced and sold locally
Negatives
Less EU funding - rural communities received a high degree of investment during the time involved with the EU and rural Wales has been a major recipient of support from the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) and European Social Fund (ESF). These are likely to be replaced by the Shared Prosperity Fund, with a strong risk that funding to rural Wales could be reduced
Food production
Positives
A green recovery - the pandemic has shown resilience in the food production system and the opportunity for governments to invest in farm businesses to re-set for a green recovery through diversification and modernising systems
Changes in funding - Brexit means the way farmers receive funding - particularly direct farm payments - will change. However, the Welsh Government have committed support to farmers beyond 2022 through a dual-track system for economic resilience and public goods
Opportunity to shape the future - Welsh-specific policy makers could use strategies that manage production, mitigate against the ecological and social impacts of changing land use, and ensure the survival of rural cultural heritage in the post-Brexit era
Reduced food vulnerabilities - strategies to reduce food vulnerabilities could be implemented with regard to climate change which could include strengthening urban-rural food connectivity, stimulating urban land-use for food, exploring new crop options for an ever-evolving climate and creating policies and standards to ensure local production is not more emission intensive than imports
Negatives
Fewer subsidies for smaller farms - food production and particularly agriculture which is a huge economic contributor in Wales could be or has been, majorly negatively affected by Brexit. Small rural family farms which relied heavily on subsidies from the CAP (which ceased in 2018 but with elements of its support remaining until 2025 – albeit on a reduced budget) will have to look elsewhere
Fewer sheep and beef farms - Brexit has seen a decline in the economic viability of sheep production with sheep farms especially vulnerable to changes in both market access arrangements and public funding support. Without the Basic Payment Scheme and agri-environment payments many less favourable areas in Wales would see sheep and cattle farms make a loss without subsidy
Fewer fishermen - Brexit means a reduced market for Welsh shellfish - 90% of which are exported to the EU with limited opportunities for redirection to domestic markets
Climate change impacts - crop production can be affected by increasing extreme weather events for example, flooding, drought or storms which in turn can have an impact on the mental health of farmers, fishers and rural communities especially
Transport and active travel
Negatives
Limited access to public transport - approximately 70% of the Welsh population live within 400m walk from a bus stop that has at least one bus per hour, and this reduces to 25% of the mid Wales population. Thus, connectivity within rural communities, and connectivity to other Welsh and UK locations, remains challenging
Lack of active travel opportunities -for many rural Welsh communities it is not an option due to the distances between settlements and services
Transport links vulnerable to climate change - some rural communities in Wales, and particularly those living in flood risk areas, are highly exposed and vulnerable to flooding and intense heat events, which can have a negative impact on transport links. For example, the lines across north and through mid-Wales were closed for several weeks during 2019 and 2020 and the recent Storm Arwen led to some road and rail closures
Read more: £38m to improve cycle and walking routes across Wales
Rural built and natural environment
Positives
Regeneration of rural towns - rural communities are seen as places to live and work post-coronavirus. Workers moving back to Wales and the places they were born and brought up in could have a positive impact on regenerating the built environment in local communities thereby increasing social connectivity and enhancing family relationships and networks
Meeting climate change objectives - access to green and blue infrastructure and spaces has been of critical benefit to mental well-being during the pandemic and the development of Welsh woodlands and reforestation could support Wales to meet its climate change objectives
Negatives
Pressure on open green and blue space in rural communities - many of these spaces are only accessible by car or bicycle and at the start of the pandemic high numbers of visitors visited rural areas and national parks in Wales causing road and other issues. Read more about the chaos of packed car parks last summer here.
Negative experiences of ‘lockdown’ - those living in smaller, older, poorer quality, less energy efficient, damp and isolated homes were more likely to have a negative experience of lockdown – particularly for those on low incomes, who need to work and home school or who live on their own and are digitally excluded
Poorer housing - rural homes tend to be of older stock and less energy efficient which when coupled with an older population in many areas could be detrimental to health and well-being and lead to hard choices around eating or heating a home
Locals priced out of their area - rising house prices and the increasing unaffordability of homes in rural communities could have a detrimental impact on local people
