The markets are poised for volatility today if they see anything that looks like a vibe shift at the Fed

WASHINGTON, DC - JULY 24: (L-R) U.S. Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), President Donald Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell tour the Federal Reserve’s $2.5 billion headquarters renovation project on July 24, 2025 in Washington, DC. The Trump administration has been critical of the cost of the renovation and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images) (Credit: Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

• S&P 500 futures were holding steady this morning prior to the opening bell in New York. Markets are likely to react to a big set of macro data dumps today: U.S. Q2 GDP, a new interest rate decision from the U.S. Federal Reserve, and a new number from ADP on private payrolls. The Fed will be watched most closely—any signs of dissent or a change in tone from Chairman Powell will push stocks around.

S&P 500 futures were flat this morning after the index closed down 0.3% yesterday. There’s not a great deal of movement globally this morning—Europe and Asia are mixed but the shifts are less than 1% either way, so nothing to get excited about.