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The Guardian - AU
The Guardian - AU
Business
Greg Jericho

The market thinks rates are about to go up because of inflation. The market could be wrong

Empty supermarket shelf
‘All of this ignores the big factor that is driving inflation: supply blockages. Anyone who has bought something from overseas, tried to buy a new car, or even hoped to buy meat at a supermarket, knows what I am talking about.’ Photograph: Richard Milnes/REX/Shutterstock

The latest Australian inflation figures showing strong prices growth in the past six months have once again put interest rate rises into the frame. A rate rise during a May election campaign is raised as a possibility, but the Reserve Bank might be a lot less willing to move than speculators believe.

This year, inflation has been all the economic rage. In America, questions about it led to US president Biden referring to a Fox News journalist as a “dumb son of a bitch” while here in Australia we are at a point where, if the market is to be believed, a rate rise could occur by May.

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