There are two simple things that every team needs in order to win a national championship in college basketball.
March Madness is chaos and predictions are challenging, but all of the teams that have cut down the nets at the end of the tournament typically have these two things in common: They’re really good on offense and they’re really good on defense.
Among the last twenty title winners, per KenPom ratings, all but one had a top-25 adjusted offensive efficiency heading into the tournament. Meanwhile, none of the teams that have won the tourney have ranked outside the top 50 in adjusted defensive efficiency.
That concept isn’t particularly complicated or hard to understand! So why don’t we use history to apply these lessons to the upcoming tournament?
These are the only teams that meet the aforementioned qualifications.
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8
Marquette
SEED: 2 (East)
OFFENSE: 8
DEFENSE: 47
Behind Big East Coach of the Year Shaka Smart and Big East Player of the Year Tyler Kolek, Marquette won the Big East tournament and could ride that momentum into the NCAA tournament.
But among the last twenty tournament winners, only one (2021 Baylor) had a defense that ranked outside the top 40. Additionally, only three teams in the entire tournament (Farleigh Dickinson, Princeton and Charleston) have less experience than Marquette.
Marquette could definitely win the whole thing for the first time since 1977, but it’s a long shot.
7
Arizona
SEED: 2 (South)
OFFENSE: 4
DEFENSE: 41
For the second year in a row, Arizona won the Pac-12 tournament. The program looks to make a run to the Final Four for the first time since second-year coach Tommy Lloyd took over for Sean Miller.
But as mentioned above about Marquette, this would be just the second time in the KenPom era that a team won the big dance with a defense that ranked outside the top 40 heading into the tournament.
6
Purdue
SEED: 1 (East)
OFFENSE: 7
DEFENSE: 26
Purdue’s Zach Edey is the heavy favorite to win the 2023 Wooden Award for College Basketball Player of the Year. After winning the Big Ten tournament, can the Boilermakers make their first trip to the Final Four since 1980 and win their first-ever NCAA tournament? This may be the year!
5
Texas
SEED: 2 (Midwest)
OFFENSE: 18
DEFENSE: 11
Texas is one of just four teams with a top-20 offense and a top-20 defense heading into the tournament. Eleven of the last 20 title winners met those same qualifications.
Under interim head coach Rodney Terry, the Longhorns recently won the Big 12 tournament. But do they have what it takes to make the Final Four for the first time since 2003 or win the tournament for the first time?
They have the fourth-most experienced roster of any of the teams in the tournament, which will help them in their pursuit of a title!
4
Connecticut
SEED: 4 (West)
OFFENSE: 6
DEFENSE: 22
UConn is one of the most interesting “sleepers” in the tournament as they are relatively under-ranked. They’re one of just five teams ranked among the top 25 in both offense and defense, which is a qualification met by 13 of the last 20 teams to win the title.
This would be UConn’s third championship since 2011, the fourth since 2004, and the first for head coach Dan Hurley.
3
Alabama
SEED: 1 (South)
OFFENSE: 19
DEFENSE: 3
After winning the SEC championship for the second time in three years, Alabama is one of the hottest teams in the country. The Crimson Tide have never made it past the Elite Eight, but this could be the year.
They have SEC Player of the Year Brandon Miller, and they have one of the best perimeter defenses in the nation.
2
UCLA
SEED: 1 (West)
OFFENSE: 25
DEFENSE: 1
Led by Pac-12 Coach of the Year Mick Cronin and Pac-12 Player of the Year Jaime Jaquez Jr., the Bruins could make their second trip to the Final Four in three years.
Unfortunately, they will have the Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year Jaylen Clark on the sidelines due to a foot injury. UCLA has allowed an additional 11.6 points per 100 possessions with Clark off the floor relative to when he is on, per CBB Analytics.
Still, their team may be deep enough to win their 12th title — and the first since 1995.
1
Houston
SEED: 1 (Midwest)
OFFENSE: 11
DEFENSE: 4
Under the leadership of American Athletic Conference Coach of the Year Kelvin Sampson, Houston could make the Elite Eight for the third straight season and win the whole thing for the first time in program history.
They have AAC Freshman of the Year Jarace Walker and AAC Defensive Player of the Year Jamal Shead. AAC Player of the Year Marcus Sasser missed the conference championship game with a non-contact groin injury, however, and Houston’s offense has been 13.3 points per 100 possessions worse when he sits relative to when he plays.
If the guard is healthy, though, watch out. Before this season, only nine teams have ever finished among the top five in unadjusted offensive efficiency and unadjusted defensive efficiency. Two of those teams (2019 Virginia and 2008 Kansas) won the title, and Houston looks to become the third.
