One of India's biggest uncertainties this year may not lie in global shipping lanes or geopolitical conflicts; it may arrive with a delayed monsoon.
The southwest monsoon has made a sluggish start, with the all-India rainfall deficit widening through June and raising fresh concerns over food inflation and agricultural exports.
"With a tardy progress of the monsoons, the rainfall deficit stands at a steep 40% at the all-India level towards the end of June 2026. Reservoir storage has also dipped below year-ago levels in the Eastern, Western and Southern regions," said Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist at ICRA.
Testing India's farm economy
The southwest monsoon, which normally arrives in June, forms the backbone of India's agricultural calendar. Kharif crops such as rice, cotton and millet depend on timely rainfall for sowing. After a sluggish start to the season, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted that July rainfall is most likely to be below normal, at less than 94% of the Long Period Average (LPA).
The impact is already beginning to show in government data, according to a report by The Economic Times. Sowing of kharif crops stood at nearly 18.27 million hectares till June 25, down 22.73% from a year earlier, indicating delayed planting across several states . Paddy acreage fell 25.17% to 2.57 million hectares, while pulses sowing declined 30.48% to 1.49 million hectares. Oilseed acreage recorded the steepest fall, plunging 53.34% to 1.69 million hectares despite the government's continued push to expand domestic production. Even millets, promoted as climate-resilient crops because of their lower water requirement, saw acreage decline 11.73%, according to the report.
