There are countless predictions of what will happen on the opening night of the 2024 NFL draft. Much of these predictions come from the results of mock draft simulators. It’s a great exercise for fans, draft analysts or even your mechanic who doesn’t watch football.
The downside is that it provides a sense of conviction that a mock draft simulator is 100 percent accurate and that only the few players you target time and time again are the players that will be drafted by your favorite football team.
In reality, we’re all guessing. Even your favorite team is guessing. Not every team knows what another team is thinking. In the process, everyone tries to connect the dots, but the draft board doesn’t always fall in favor of what you want. It tends to go sideways, and for the Detroit Lions, this year will be a different approach from what we’ve seen in previous years.
Much of that is due to the fact that this is latest first-round selection the Lions have had under their new regime.
In 2021, the Lions picked seventh overall and were lucky enough to land offensive tackle Penei Sewell. In 2022, they had the second overall pick and got defensive end Aidan Hutchinson. Meanwhile, they had an additional pick in the first round in 2022 and 2023 for the trade that sent quarterback Matthew Stafford to the Rams.
The Lions surprised everyone in 2022 and moved up to the 12th overall pick to select wide receiver Jameson Williams. The next year, they held the sixth overall pick and traded back six spots to select running back Jahmyr Gibbs. Using that extra pick in the first round of 2023, they selected linebacker Jack Campbell at 18th overall.
Sure, we can say the Lions got lucky on some selections and then got creative with others. Regardless, they have stayed true to who they are as a football team. Under Brad Holmes and Dan Campbell, they have created an identity in what they look for in a person and in a football player. Not every team can say that, and it’s probably why the Lions are finding success with so many of their younger players.
But when you look at previous drafts, nobody thought they’d walk away with Campbell, Gibbs and Williams as first-round picks. It’s evidence that the Lions are a true wild card when it comes to the draft.
This year, they don’t have a glaring need and may be the biggest wild card. You could make the case for the Lions to go offensive line with the No. 29 pick. However, there’s going to be a run on offensive linemen, and there’s a chance that we see 10 of them off the board by the time the Lions are on the clock.
Certainly, the Lions could use some help on defense, whether it be another pass rusher or potentially a defensive back, but will the board fall in favor of the Lions not to have to reach for one of those players?
Then there’s the surprise factor. I don’t expect the Lions to go after a tight end, running back or quarterback in the first round, but a month ago it would have been more surprising to see them go after a wide receiver. Now, I’m not sure that’s the case. Could they move up for a pass catcher such as Adonai Mitchell from Texas or Brian Thomas Jr. from LSU?
With Brad Holmes and Dan Campbell, anything and everything is on the table. One thing is for sure: Don’t get caught up talking about “exactly” what the Lions are going to do, because we don’t exactly know. And to be honest, I don’t think they do either. Their approach will be different but it will be fun, and at the end of the day, we should all just want the the Lions to draft good players.
