Nothing is certain except death and taxes, Benjamin Franklin once reckoned.
Taulupe Faletau starting at No. 8 for Wales?
In fairness, one of the founding fathers of the United States never saw him play.
But let’s just say he might have tweaked his view if he’d seen the Cardiff v Munster game last month, when Faletau played the house down and then a bit more. Of course, Faletau will start for Wales against New Zealand, fitness permitting.
Read more : The six Wales stalwarts mounting late challenges for places in Pivac's autumn squad
What of the rest?
There are some who look bolted on but also a number of places that are still to be claimed amid a glut of worrying injuries.
In light of the concerns for Pivac, we take a look at his likely starting XV to face the All Blacks on November 5, with the certainties matched only by the doubts.
15. Leigh Halfpenny
How certain?
Not very. Johnny McNicholl is fit, after all, and Halfpenny is just three games into his comeback after 15 months out with injury. But there were unmistakable signs for the Scarlets against Zebre on Saturday evening, with his positioning, defence and ability to read the game, that the vastly experienced Halfpenny is heading in the direction. With Liam Williams among the injury absentees, the jersey is up for grabs.
14. Louis Rees-Zammit
How certain?
Assuming he doesn’t pick up a knock in the coming weeks, Rees-Zammit is nailed on. He had a strong summer tour in South Africa and has started the season well, doing improbable things for his club Gloucester, including scoring a try that seemed to take him around the entire city via the scenic route and stopping a touchdown by punching the ball out of an opponent’s grasp.
13. George North
How certain? Inked in, but it’s not inconceivable he could be considered as a wing if Josh Adams is unavailable because of injury.
12. Nick Tompkins
How certain? Hard to see him not playing as long he’s injury free. He’s a key man for Saracens and when he doesn’t play they miss him. A good summer tour underlined his worth to Wales as well.
11. Josh Adams
How certain? If fit, he’s in, looking sharp while he was one the field for Cardiff against the Dragons, crowning his efforts with a well-taken try. That said, he left the field early with a wrist injury. Later, the vibe seemed to be that it didn’t appear too bad; Wayne Pivac will hope that proves the case.
10. Gareth Anscombe
How certain? It depends on Dan Biggar’s fitness. Maybe we should add the further qualification that it also depends on Anscombe’s fitness. He has, after all, been sidelined for the past couple of games with a rib problem. Let’s take it one injury at a time, then. But it doesn’t look great for Biggar, while Anscombe is training with the Ospreys again, so he seems favourite at this point.
9. Tomos Williams
How certain? How much weight does Pivac attach to form? Williams has played well for Cardiff over their past two matches, but Rhys Webb performed strongly for the Ospreys against URC champions the Stormers on Friday and he isn’t even assured of a squad place. Pivac began with Kieran Hardy in South Africa in the summer. Scrum-half under this regime has been a merry-go-round, but maybe Williams is marginal favourite to face New Zealand.
1. Gareth Thomas
How certain? A reasonable probability, perhaps? Maybe not even that. The man who held the No. 1 shirt for all three Tests in the summer has played just one minute of rugby this term, after all, firstly because of a hamstring injury and then a head knock. If he is to face the All Blacks, he needs to bank game-minutes sooner rather than later.
His regional team-mate Nicky Smith has performed strongly in his absence, powerful in the scrums and busy around the field, but his first job is to secure a squad place after being out of favour since the summer of 2021. Rhys Carre showed up well against the Dragons, Wyn Jones helped hoist the Scarlets to a win over Zebre. Training and fitness will dictate who starts.
2. Ryan Elias
How certain? Again, you wouldn’t bet little Billy's toy farm on it. But Pivac appears to like Elias and the Scarlet fairly ripped into it after appearing off the bench against Zebre. The challenge for Dewi Lake is to move beyond the replacements’ role and prove himself a trusted starter. Bradley Roberts and Ken Owens are also options, while Sam Parry has been sidelined.
3. Tomas Francis
How certain? He’s Wales’ best scrummaging tight-head by some distance and he’s in form. You can never be totally sure in these days of bomb squads and such like, but this one looks a fairly secure bet: Francis starts.
4. Will Rowlands
How certain? Wales didn’t begin with him for their final Six Nations game of 2022, so nothing is a hundred percent sure with Pivac, but Welsh rugby’s player of last term has carried his good form into this term, helping to disrupt Cardiff’s lineout on Saturday and again proving a force around the field. He’s being tipped for the Wales captaincy, as well, should Dan Biggar fail to make it. All's good, then: He'll be in the run-on team.
5. Adam Beard
How certain? Alun Wyn Jones has been in form, but Beard has been Wales’ vice-captain this year and he has been playing an important role for the Ospreys himself. For them, he is an immensely reliable lineout option, while Beard is also one of the best in the business at wrecking opponents’ driving mauls and he doesn’t miss many tackles.
Pivac will have been pleased about how the 6ft 8in Osprey and Rowlands went as a partnership in the summer. There won’t be a lot in it between him and Jones, though.
6. Ross Moriarty
How certain? Put your neighbour’s house on it rather than your own. Moriarty has been playing with trademark attitude for the Dragons, piling up tackles, but Dan Lydiate held the No. 6 shirt in South Africa. The Osprey, though, hasn’t had much rugby of late.
Might the selectors reward Jac Morgan for his excellent recent form — he felled no end of big South Africans in the Ospreys v Stormers clash on Friday, the hits including one that uncompromisingly halted the progress of Steven Kitshoff — by considering him as a six, or will the pursuit of back-row balance militate against such a move?
What of Josh Navidi and his injury problems? Not much is clear here, then.
7. Tommy Reffell
How certain? It will be tight — very tight, with Justin Tipuric also in contention for the shirt. But the Ospreys captain has had little rugby since returning from long-term injury. Theoretically he could pack in two more matches before the All Blacks’ match if Pivac wanted. Good performances might sway the selectors.
That said, Reffell had an exceptional game for Leicester Tigers against Harlequins on Sunday and is the man in possession with Wales. The assumption is he’ll have credit in the bank, too, after his efforts in the summer.
Thomas Young and Jac Morgan have also been superb this term. Who do you leave out of the squad? It’s Pivac’s call.
8. Taulupe Faletau
How certain? Nothing to see here. The Cardiff player remains a class apart.
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