The Coalition loss in NSW has left Tasmanian premier Jeremy Rockliff the most senior elected Liberal in the nation. Mainland Australia is now governed coast-to-coast by Labor governments at both the state and federal level – a political map not seen since 2007.
The election result will provoke some deep soul-searching in Liberal ranks. One of the debates already under way is whether this new national picture reflects a common theme or if there are factors unique to each state that makes a national narrative more difficult to ascertain. It’s an important question and will determine some of the learnings for the Liberal party.
Former prime minister John Howard has, for example, argued that we are not seeing a coherent nationwide policy movement against the Liberal party. But I suspect the answer lies somewhere in the middle.
The NSW election was largely lost by factors not directly comparable to say the landslide loss faced by Liberals on the other side of the continent at the 2021 Western Australian state election. Yet it would be a mistake for Liberals not to recognise underlying trends that are impacting support for the Liberal brand.
In NSW, the biggest factor at play seemed to be an “its time” feeling for a Coalition government seeking a record fourth election win. Issues like cost-of-living pressures undoubtedly had an impact, even if many of these are beyond the capacity of a state government to influence. And for the NSW Liberal party there are clearly ongoing lessons in relation to some candidate selections and their timing and some of the internal issues that hindered the campaign.
Having spent hours on pre-poll and at a polling booth on Saturday in my own local electorate of North Shore, what was exceptionally notable was the difference between the state and federal election. Not one voter said to me they were voting against the Liberal party because of antipathy towards Premier Perrottet. I can’t say the same about my experience during the federal election.
Some conservative commentators, particularly those who emerge after dark, tried to argue in the lead-up to the election (and, ridiculously, have not stopped in the days since) that the NSW Liberals were facing a massive backlash because of the government’s support for strong measures to address climate change. Energy minister and treasurer, Matt Kean, bore the brunt of those attacks. Their hypothesis was that the progressive policies of the Berejiklian and Perrottet governments in areas like climate and gambling reform would lead to an electoral bonanza for parties like One Nation. Latham and One Nation were happy to fuel this narrative and, in addition to their campaigns in western Sydney, even took their fight to Kean’s own northern Sydney electorate.
Yet One Nation’s vote barely moved. In the Upper House, it looks like its representation will actually fall. In Kean’s own seat the swing against him went to Labor and the Greens, which would hardly point to concerns about him being too progressive.
The reality is the climate policies Kean, with the support of Perrottet, pursued reflected the type of centrist approach voters want from our party. It’s the reason Climate 200-backed teal candidates did not succeed in replicating the teal wave of last year’s federal election. WWF independently rated NSW as the Australian leader for supporting renewable energy and this was recognised by voters. Without the approach Kean and others pursued we would have seen a very different outcome in what are traditionally considered heartland Liberal seats.
This goes to the national learnings for Liberals from our recent losses. Despite the differences between the elections at state and federal level, there is an undercurrent of trends we must be prepared to face. We have to also recognise support for the Liberal brand is overwhelmingly influenced by what happens in Canberra, not state capitals, such is the centrality of federal politics in the media and the minds of voters.
Across the country the party has seen a decline in support from various demographics: younger voters, women and some sections of our multicultural communities, particularly Chinese Australians.
The NSW Liberal government brought an approach which responded to many of the concerns driving voters away from the Liberal party on issues like climate change and support for working women. To be effective, federal Liberals must be prepared to travel a similar path and the approach they take will shape perceptions of the party in all jurisdictions for years to come.
Finally, a word on grace in politics. The strength of any democracy is dependent on the willingness of those who lose to accept the verdict of their fellow citizens. In the United States we have seen the corrosive impact of failed candidates like Trump who seek to undermine election outcomes by questioning the electoral process and the verdict of voters. The type of grace we saw from Dominic Perrottet on Saturday night in his concession speech and the way in which both leaders conducted themselves during the campaign should be the source of pride for those of us living in our largest state. Let’s hope that’s a trend we see sustained beyond 2023.
Trent Zimmerman is a former federal Liberal member for North Sydney
