Progressives are feeling newly emboldened by the stronger-than-expected showing of the left-wing outsider in a New Jersey congressional primary on Thursday.
Why it matters: There are dozens of House races like this across the country where at least one left-wing insurgent is vying either to win an open seat or topple an establishment House Democratic incumbent.
- "This is a clear sign that the Democratic electorate is desperate to elect new leaders — like the dozen of working class champions we're supporting in primaries this cycle," Justice Democrats spokesperson Usamah Andrabi told Axios.
- Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) said the New Jersey result "shows that the progressive wing... is ascendant and consistent with the base of the party."
Driving the news: The 13-candidate Democratic primary to replace now-Gov. Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey's 11th congressional district ended in a dead heat between progressive organizer Analilia Mejia and former Rep. Tom Malinowski.
- With several thousand provisional and late mail-in still to be counted as of Friday, Mejia led Malinowski by 500 votes, 28.75% to 27.97%, according to the Associated Press.
- Mejia trailed many of her opponents in fundraising, bringing in just $420,000 to Malinowski's $1.2 million.
The intrigue: AIPAC spent over $2 million against Malinowski — a mainstream Democrat who had the group's support in the past — for his willingness to condition aid to Israel.
- The group reportedly favored former Lt. Gov. Tahesha Way, who had support from parts of the Democratic Party establishment.
- Observers say that created an opening for Mejia, the most prominent progressive in the race, who was endorsed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and the Progressive Caucus.
- "AIPAC affiliated groups spent millions," noted one centrist House Democrat when asked about the result. "Wouldn't have even happened without that."
What we're hearing: A senior House Democrat, asked if members were freaking out about their own primaries in the wake of the shock result, told Axios, simply, "Yes."
- "I definitely think this points to progressive anti-establishment energy," acknowledged a third House Democrat, a moderate in a swing-district.
- Still, that lawmaker argued that too many moderate candidates split votes and endorsements and that "if [the] establishment and money all got behind one candidate like what normally happens," Mejia may not have won.
Zoom in: Other Democrats said the result is more of a referendum on AIPAC money than a true barometer of where the energy is in the primary electorate right now.
- Rep. Mark Pocan (D-Wisc.), a vocal AIPAC critic, told Axios this election was the "first real test of their money and it failed miserably," adding, "My advice to anyone is avoid their support. It could cost you mightily."
- Several lawmakers also pointed to the splintered field of establishment-aligned candidates, with others noting that Malinowski had faced hits of carpetbagging from his former district.
Zoom out: There are plenty of other primaries this year that will demonstrate whether this race is a fluke or a sign of things to come.
- Several older, establishment-aligned House Democrats such as Reps. Ed Case (D-Hawaii), Stephen Lynch (D-Mass.) and Doris Matsui (D-Calif.) are facing primary challengers who have raised serious sums.
- Numerous open primaries in deep blue districts also feature prominent progressive candidates, such as Kat Abughazaleh in Illinois' 9th district.
The bottom line: "It was true in 2025 and will be true in 2026: The establishment is not unbeatable - they have only gone unchallenged," said Amanda Litman, the co-founder of Run For Something.
- "Voters are pissed: They want change and they want leaders who can credibly make the case that they'll fight like hell. Money matters — but voters' fury matters more."
Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional reporting.
