Remember the opening night of the NBA season?
I can forgive you if [checks calendar] 15 days ago feels like a lifetime at this point. On Oct. 24, the Lakers opened their season against the Nuggets, and LeBron James played only 29 minutes. After the game, James—somewhat begrudgingly—admitted that was the team’s plan for him in his 21st year, to keep his minutes lower with an eye toward the postseason.
Here’s what LeBron’s minutes totals have been in the six games since then: 35, 39 (including overtime), 33, 42 (overtime again), 35 and 37.
Not only have the Lakers pretty much entirely reversed course on that minutes management plan, James’s current minutes-per-game average (35.9) is higher than last season, and would be his second-highest average since heading west in 2019.
And the Lakers may not have a choice! In fact, there’s an argument that Los Angeles may need to play him even more.
That’s because—through an obviously small sample size of only seven games—the Lakers have been absolutely putrid with James off the floor. Per Cleaning the Glass, Los Angeles is an astounding, San Andreas Fault–rumbling 48.6 points per 100 possessions (!!!) better with James on the floor this year. The Lakers have a plus-11.6 net with James on the court and a Washington Generals–esque minus-37.0 with him on the bench.
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Now, LeBron has always been one of the league leaders in on/off differential. Per CTG, in 13 of his previous 20 seasons he was in the 95th percentile or higher in differential, which includes many of the other years he played with superstar teammates. This year, not even the presence of Anthony Davis can keep lineups afloat without James. In 81 minutes with Davis on and LeBron off, Los Angeles has a -41.7 net. (Meanwhile, the Lakers are a plus-11.4 when James plays without Davis.)
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On one hand, it’s incredibly fun to marvel at this. In Year 21, James is still the unquestioned driving force behind his team’s success. The Lakers are relying on him as much as any other superstar in the league. And LeBron is delivering. His stats remain formidable (25.3 points, 8.4 rebounds and 5.9 assists a night), and he’s currently shooting 56.1% from the field, which would be his highest mark since 2014—his last year in Miami.
On the other hand, uh … aren’t the Lakers supposed to be better than this? A significant part of the problem has been injuries. Rui Hachimura has missed time. Gabe Vincent, who struggled to start the year, is now out. Jarred Vanderbilt hasn’t played yet. Meanwhile, Austin Reaves is in a slump, and his minutes with Davis (and without LeBron) have been a disaster so far. Still, there’s some hope for the Lakers here. If they get healthy and Reaves looks like Reaves, Los Angeles may be cooking again.
For now, it’s enjoyable watching LeBron put this team on his back like it’s 2020 … or ’17 … or ’13 … or ’08. The fear, however, is that this heavy early workload could have consequences by the spring. If the Lakers want to be playing on the last night of the season, they’ll almost certainly need to find a way to survive without LeBron.
