The postseason, fair or unfair, is calcifying for star players. The playoffs are when reputations, both good and bad, are earned. A big game or even a big shot in the right moment can cement a legend forever. Put up enough duds in high-leverage moments and it could take years to repair how you’re viewed by the general public. As Draymond Green told Warriors GM Bob Myers, there are 82-game players and then there are 16-game players.
And right now, Julius Randle is looking like an 82-game player.
In his second career postseason run, Randle has more or less picked up where he left off his first one, which is to say his numbers have dropped and he’s been incredibly inefficient. Outside of a couple high-ish volume 20-point efforts, Randle has been underwhelming so far for the Knicks, who face a 2–1 deficit in their second-round series against the Heat. In Game 3 in Miami, Randle scored a paltry 10 points on 4-of-15 shooting, missing all five of his three-point attempts for good measure.
In the regular season, Randle averaged a 25/10/4 slash line on 46.0% shooting from the field and 34.3% from deep. In the playoffs, he’s averaged 15/8/4 on 34.6% from the field overall. Of all players shooting at least 15 attempts a night in the postseason, Randle has the worst field goal percentage. Of all players shooting at least six threes a night, Randle has the second-worst three-point percentage, ahead of only the toxic Dillon Brooks.
Now it should be noted Randle entered the postseason with an ankle injury. He did not finish the last game of New York’s first-round series with Cleveland, and he missed the start of the second round against Miami. The Cavs had the stingiest defense in the regular season, and Miami is a playoff-tested bunch with one of the best coaches in the league.
Still, it’s the playoffs! Plenty of stars have raised their games against tougher opponents. Randle could very well make an All-NBA team, and he hasn’t lived up anywhere near those expectations so far. His teammate Jalen Brunson has also dealt with an ankle issue. Brunson has raised his scoring average and only seen a small dip in efficiency.
Neither Randle or the Knicks seem to be doing the player any favors to juice his offense. Randle has seen some difficult individual matchups through two rounds, including Evan Mobley and Bam Adebayo. In the Knicks’ Game 3 loss to the Heat, shot 3-of-9 when guarded by Adebayo. With Jimmy Butler back, Miami didn’t play any zone, a coverage New York succeeded against in Game 2. Adebayo instead guarded Randle with very little help, though the Heat did keep the paint packed, cheating off the Knicks’ shooters.
Randle’s issue is—in the face of these coverages that are loading up on him—the Knicks are doing very little to generate him easy looks. Per NBA.com’s playtype stats, Randle’s two most frequent plays run during the playoffs have been isolations and spot ups. The through line there is a lack of movement. Randle settles for too many jumpers, either pounding his dribble until he fires up something contested, or waiting off the ball for someone to swing him a pass.
For someone with a variety of offensive talent, this is baffling. According to those same stats, Randle is running less than two pick-and-rolls a game, either as the ball-handler or the screener. With his size and handle, Randle should be someone doing much more of both, especially when playing with a guard as talented as Brunson. Couldn’t a Randle-Brunson action with Randle handling help pull Bam away from the basket? Or maybe give up a favorable switch?
The Knicks also play at a glacial pace, averaging just over 93 possessions a game in the playoffs. In the regular season, New York was bottom-five in pace. Their playoff pace would have been by far the slowest. This is not a great strategy against tough defenses, especially the Heat, who are executing their scheme perfectly in the halfcourt.
The Knicks would be doing themselves a favor getting out and running more often. Randle has thrived playing like that before, particularly during his lone year in New Orleans in 2019. Instead, New York is grinding everything down to a halt, which encourages more sluggish, iso-ball from Randle. And with Miami playing steps off the Knicks’ wings, Randle has very little room to operate. New York is not going to change its identity overnight—we are talking about a Tom Thibodeau team here—but the current setup has not been conducive to success for Randle.
More screening, more handling, more cutting, more running, whatever it is, the Knicks need to introduce some sort of movement for Randle against the Heat moving forward. The ankle injury can’t be leaned on when so many other players in the series—including the topline stars in Brunson and Butler—are dealing with their own ailments. If Randle and the Knicks continue to be rigid—both on the floor and in their strategy—the playoffs will pass them by.
