The entry of the Houthi rebels into the Iran war has sparked concerns that another vital waterway in the Middle East could be effectively blocked to oil tankers, causing further economic chaos.
Like the Strait of Hormuz, the Bab al-Mandab strait is a chokepoint in the region through which large volumes of petroleum and liquefied natural gas pass. Crucially, it’s a vital strategic link in the maritime trade route between the Mediterranean Sea and the Indian Ocean, via the Red Sea and the Suez Canal.
The Strait of Hormuz accounts for the transit of around a fifth of the world’s oil and gas. As it currently remains under strict control by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, countries across the world have been forced to grapple with rationing and high prices.
An energy emergency was declared in the Philippines last Wednesday as the government warned it had just 45 days until fuel ran out completely. India has been forced to ration cooking gas, Sri Lanka has introduced a four-day working week and Bangladesh has deployed troops to prevent fuel hoarding.
Brent Crude, the global oil benchmark, cost $107 (£81) a barrel on Tuesday, having been $116 per barrel when the market opened on Monday. Prior to the war in Iran, it cost $78 per barrel.
The involvement of the Houthi rebels brings renewed focus to the Bab al-Mandab strait, as the Iran-backed group has a history of attacking ships transiting the waterway.
While Bab al-Mandab does not see the same volume of oil pass through as the Strait of Hormuz, its closure would signify yet another blow to the economies relying on imports from the Middle East.
Where is the strait?
The Bab al-Mandab strait, also known as the “Gate of Tears”, resides between Djibouti and Yemen. The route, around 50km long and 16km wide, is where vessels travel between the Red Sea and the Arabian Sea.
The strait provides access to a number of vital ports, such as Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu, Djibouti’s Doraleh, Eritrea’s Assab, as well as Somalia’s Kismayu and Somaliland’s Berbera.
How important is it economically?
Between 2020 and 2023, Bab al-Mandab saw a growing number of barrels transit the strait daily, peaking at 9.3 million a day, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).
This dropped drastically to 4.1 million in 2024 after the Houthis launched systematic attacks attacks on commercial ships associated with Israel using the strait.
The International Monetary Fund said that trade through the Suez Canal fell by 50 per cent in the first two months of 2024 compared to the year before, while trade through the Panama Canal fell by 32 per cent.
As traffic fell, insurance costs surged. Major shipping firms rerouted vessels to go past the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa instead, adding an additional 10-14 days to journeys.
What impact would closing it have?
Closure or disruption to two of the world’s main strategic waterways could be catastrophic for global trade, with energy supplies from the region potentially cut off.
Bab al-Mandab has allowed a trickle of oil to leave the Middle East through circumvention. Saudi Arabia has used the strait strategically to export crude through its vital Yanbu port.
Yanbu is on the west coast of Saudi Arabia, receiving oil through the country’s east to west pipeline.
Matthew Wright, a freight analyst for Kpler, told The Independent that the pipeline was “being pushed to the maximum”.
“While all the attention is rightly on what’s happening in the strait, Yanbu is significant in that it’s the most active port out of the Middle East gulf at the moment and if anything were to happen there, it would be a massive blow to continued crude exports from the Middle East,” he said.
As many as 4.6 million barrels per day have been loaded onto vessels at Yanbu over the past two weeks, more than three times the average over 2025, CNN reported, citing shipping data firm Vortexa.
Previously, experts told The Independent that 2.5 to 3 million barrels a day were being exported from Yanbu. Mr Wright warned that even losing that amount, at such a critical stage with the 15 million barrels of oil absent from the market everyday from Hormuz, would be a “major problem”.
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