Under-pressure Wales coach Wayne Pivac went into the autumn finale against Australia desperately in need of a win after the shocking home defeat to Georgia. There was a sense that his job was very much on the line.
For much of the game it looked as though he was going to secure the victory that could well in turn secure his future, only for his team to let slip a 34-13 lead and go down 39-34 amid an extraordinary conclusion which saw two Welsh players given yellow cards and Australia run in four tries without response. So where does that leave things now? Here are the key questions the WRU will have to consider as they decide what to do with the World Cup just ten months away. You can have your say on whether Wayne Pivac should stay or go here.
Should Wayne Pivac remain in charge of the Wales team?
It’s a results business and, on that basis, the answer would probably have to be no. Wales have won just three of their 12 matches this year, failing to string together back to back victories, and that’s just not good enough. Yes, there was a historic first win over the Springboks in South Africa, but it is fair to note that was versus a second string South African side.
Overall, it’s been a really poor 2022. You had a first-ever home defeat against Italy and a first defeat anywhere at the hands of Georgia, which was a new low point. The year then ended in chaotic fashion as Wales somehow contrived to blow a 21-point lead against Australia. It was a performance that summed up the inconsistency and up-and-down nature of the Pivac reign, with Wales playing really well for an hour but then imploding in the final quarter, amid indiscipline, seriously flawed game management and some questionable team changes. It was endemic of a side that has lost the winning habit.
You also have to acknowledge that Australia were deeply depleted, having been ravaged by injury and unavailability. They were there for the taking, they looked to have been beaten, but not only could Wales not see the job through, they threw away a hugely commanding lead. Just what that will mean for Pivac’s own job, we will have to wait and see.
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How has Wayne Pivac developed the Wales team?
There have been high points, as noted above, but those strides forward haven’t been sustained. Instead, after both the 2021 Six Nations triumph and the win in Bloemfontein, the team regressed. There has not been consistent progress. At times, it has felt like Pivac doesn’t know what his best team is, amid repeated tinkering. In his 35 matches in charge over three years, he has used no fewer than 81 players, while you have found yourself scratching your head over the game-plan on occasions. In the wake of the Australian defeat, his overall record now reads: Won 14, Drawn 1, Lost 20. Those stats tell a tale in terms of strides made.
Are the players under-performing?
It was a much improved display against the Wallabies, certainly for the bulk of the game, but you would have to say Pivac’s Welsh team hasn’t performed to its potential consistently since the 2021 Six Nations title triumph. There are quality players on board, players with huge experience and proven track records at international level. But, in general, the whole has proved to be less than the sum of the parts.
Do the players believe in Wayne Pivac?
It was very telling after the Georgian defeat when former skipper Sam Warburton suggested there must be some kind of deeper, underlying issues at the root of the apparent absence of motivation among the players. His words raised all kinds of questions about just what is going on in camp and the mood of the players. Had we now reached a “lost the dressing room” moment? You also had Jamie Roberts talking about a lack of desire from the players. These weren’t comments that spoke of a happy ship or a sense of belief about the way that ship is sailing.
As such, we were always going to get a good idea of the players’ mindset from the way they performed against Australia, with Pivac’s future on the line. In fairness, there was a reaction from them. There was far more physicality, they carried with purpose and the set-piece was a major weapon, with a succession of scrum penalties and a rampaging lineout drive try from distance. There was also some quality attacking play, notably with the tries out wide for Taulupe Faletau and Rio Dyer. So there was evidence of the team playing for the coach, but then it all fell away in the decisive final quarter to change the whole complexion of the day. Speaking after the match, Warburton once again struck a key chord when he said it was now down to the WRU to speak to the senior players and work out if the environment is the right one to drive the team forward, as only those inside will really know. Jamie Roberts also suggested he was privy to player conversations that were talking place, though he declined to publicly reveal the detail of those conversations — you can read his comments here.
How will Wales fare at the World Cup if Pivac remains in charge?
On current results, you would have to be a bit fearful. If you look at their group, they will be up against Australia and it will be a very different Australia to the one that rolled up at the Principality Stadium this weekend. They will be much, much stronger, with the likes of Michael Hooper, Marika Koroibete, Nic White, Quade Cooper, Samu Kerevi, Will Skelton, Bernard Foley, Rob Valetini and Rory Arnold back on board. Wales also face Fiji and we all know what a threat they can pose, with their explosive ball-handling talent (and what happened the last time the World Cup was in France). Then you have Georgia. Enough said on that front after the events of last week. Portugal complete the pool but Wales’ fate will be decided elsewhere. At present, the signs are ominous and that will clearly colour the WRU’s thinking.
Can Wayne Pivac turn it around?
It is possible. He did it during the 2021 Six Nations after a dismal autumn and he did it with the landmark victory out in South Africa after a wretched Six Nations Championship. There was another bounce back against the Wallabies, with Wales producing some of their best rugby of the year. But again you come back to the question of consistency and whether Pivac can turn it around on a consistent basis because the overall direction of travel has not been good this year.
How much would it cost to get rid of him?
It wouldn’t be cheap. Pivac has the best part of a year left on his contract, which runs through to the end of the 2023 World Cup in France. So if the WRU were to sack him it would come at a price in terms of a compensation payment. They would also have to dig deep to fund his successor, especially if they are to bring in the kind of top quality coach Wales need. All this at a time when there is huge pressure on the WRU to come up with more money to adequately resource the four regions.
What happens with the backroom team?
That would clearly be down to whoever took over from Pivac. There is a huge amount of international experience in the group, with the likes of Stephen Jones, Gethin Jenkins, Jonathan Humphreys and Neil Jenkins. But a new man might want to bring in his own men, if he’s allowed to. There is also the fact that the backroom staff are contracted just like Pivac, so removing them would entail yet more cost.
Who are the options to replace him?
The bookies have installed Kiwi Scott Robertson as the favourite, on the back of the huge success he has enjoyed with the Crusaders, but he is also an apparent target for England and appears next in line to take over from Ian Foster as All Blacks coach. Warren Gatland could potentially come in as an interim coach to take Wales through to the 2023 World Cup, but he says he hasn’t been contacted by anyone in relation to returning to the job he did for 11 years.
Former Ireland fly-half Ronan O’Gara has a growing reputation thanks to the work he has done with La Rochelle, who he helped guide to Champions Cup glory last season. Bristol boss Pat Lam, who won the PRO12 title against all the odds at the helm of Connacht in 2016, is another name you hear on the grapevine. If you are looking for Welshmen, there would clearly be the option of promoting one of the current backroom staff, either on a temporary or permanent basis, while the likes of Dai Young and Steve Tandy could be other candidates. Young has 20 years of experience with Cardiff and Wasps, while former Ospreys chief Tandy was part of Gatland’s Lions coaching team last year on the back of his work with the Waratahs and Scotland on the defensive front.
Who actually makes the decision on his future?
That would lie with the people at the top of the WRU, notably chief executive Steve Phillips and performance director Nigel Walker. They have a big call to make, amid a review of the autumn campaign. All this comes at a time when the situation is in flux regarding the union’s chair. Rob Butcher has stepped down and we wait to see who will replace him. That will be decided at a WRU board meeting this week with a new chair to be chosen from their ranks. Former Wales internationals Anthony Buchanan and Ieuan Evans are seen as front-runners. Presumably, the person who takes the helm would have an input in the review and the decision over Pivac’s future, unless that decision is made ahead of a new chair being appointed. It is thought a review could last around 10 days.
How does the process work?
You can look back to the last dismissal of a national head coach for insight into what can happen here. After Wales bombed out of the 2007 World Cup at the group stage by losing to Fiji in Nantes, the WRU acted immediately. Just 30 minutes after the game had ended, chief executive Roger Lewis, chairman David Pickering and WRU head of communications John Williams were seen standing near the halfway line deep in conversation. Then, barely an hour after the final whistle, the WRU’s 14 Board members present at the game were asked to gather for an impromptu emergency meeting in the lounge bar at the Stade de la Beaujoire. They were asked to vote on a motion that Jenkins’ position had become untenable and it was carried 13-1.
The following morning, Lewis and Pickering met with the former Scarlets coach at the team hotel in Pornichet on the Atlantic coast. Jenkins declined to resign, so was told his contract was being terminated. It was swift and pretty brutal. We wait to see what will happen on this occasion, should the WRU decide the time has come for a change.
Will the fans keep coming to games if Wales have another poor year in 2023?
This is what will really spook the WRU hierarchy as they consider what to do. Income from international rugby is overwhelmingly the main source of revenue for the union. It pays for the domestic game in Wales, at amateur, semi-pro and professional level. The less money that comes through the turnstile at the Principality Stadium, the less money there is to fund the sport in this country. Moreover, fans vote with their feet and if Wales do have another poor year in 2023, attendances will inevitably dip and the game here can simply not afford for that to happen. So, over to you, WRU.
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