For as long as most of us can remember, there have been complaints that voters at council elections decide which party to support on the basis of national issues rather than local ones. That, at least, is the narrative from those who have lost their seats or been deprived of power.
However, the same people will be happy to bathe in the reflected glory of popular national politicians if that helps them win. In fact there are many reasons why people vote as they do in local elections, and coming out with simplistic homilies doesn’t aid understanding.
Opponents of the ruling party or parties at Westminster invariably exploit events that depict them in a bad light. The cost-of-living crisis won’t be winning the Conservatives many votes at the moment, and it would be a surprise if other parties didn’t make the most of the partygate fines imposed on Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak. But it would be wrong to conclude that local issues are completely overshadowed and that they can’t have a major impact on council election results.
In 1999 there’s little doubt that Labour lost control of Rhondda Cynon Taf to Plaid Cymru because of the failure to close the Nantygwyddon landfill site, which had become a massive local cause celebre. Five years ago unpopular changes to rubbish collections became a major issue that resulted in Labour losing control of Blaenau Gwent council. Sometimes it’s a combination of local and national factors that decides who wins and who loses.
In 2004 Labour lost control of Cardiff for two reasons. The council had received a lot of negative publicity relating to matters like councillors’ expenses - always an issue with the potential to be incendiary - and the perception that it was being led in an autocratic manner. At the same time, the election took place at a time when the Iraq war had become unpopular, and many voters who normally supported Labour defected to the Liberal Democrats or Plaid Cymru.
What’s the situation like in the capital city now? All four constituencies are held at both Westminster and Senedd level by Labour and the party currently holds around half the seats on the council. There’s a divided opposition, with the Conservatives having taken over from the Lib Dems at the last election in 2017 as the main opposition party.
The three Plaid Cymru councillors elected last time, including former MS Neil McEvoy, defected to the new party he established called Propel that he set up after being expelled by Plaid. All three represent the Fairwater district and are standing for re-election. Plaid, left with no councillors, has formed a pact with the Green Party called Common Ground, which will be fielding candidates in all the wards in Cardiff.
No one is predicting huge gains for Common Ground, but in some areas they appear to be getting a positive response to their core message, which says: “We will reject the tired, uninspiring politics of Cardiff Labour’s council - who allow developers to profit while our quality of life suffers.”
There is undoubtedly a feeling in the city that the needs of developers have been prioritised over the needs of ordinary people. Some talk cynically about the flats built for student accommodation that have been reclassified for general occupancy because the demand for student apartments has declined. Equally, there have been many critical comments about the “soulless” appearance of Central Square, by the main train station, with no greenery.
And there’s been a negative reaction from some to the building of a residential village called Plasdwr on the city’s north western green belt. The heritage group Cardiff Civic Society has been especially vocal in its criticism of over-development. Common Ground hopes to capitalise on such sentiments in the election.
One senior Plaid Cymru source said: “If you had asked me a month ago whether I thought we had a chance of winning some seats, I’d have said no. But we have been genuinely surprised by the level of support for Common Ground on the doorstep in Canton and Grangetown, if not so much in other wards in the city where we thought we had a chance.
“There’s a lot of discontent with the council over all kinds of issues, but over-development is to the fore. In one street there was a lot of opposition to the cutting down of trees, which was seen as totally unnecessary.”
The source added: “In last year’s Senedd election, there was a lot of support for Mark Drakeford [the local Cardiff West MS] in the Canton [polling] boxes. But he’s not a candidate this time and a lot of Labour supporters say they’ll be voting for us.”
Candidates and their supporters can get over-excited and hype up their level of support if they’ve had a good run of positive support on a canvassing session. But the same Plaid source who was talking up the possibility of victory in some Cardiff wards - no more than that - was pessimistic about the party’s chances in Rhondda Cynon Taf, suggesting that the high profile of the council’s Labour leader Andrew Morgan, who also leads the Welsh Local Government Association, was having a bearing on people’s voting intentions.
It’s certainly the case that Cllr Morgan’s open image - he engages with voters on Twitter about local problems, so long as they remain polite - contrasts with the more closed down style of some of his predecessors. Following boundary changes that have amalgamated the two wards of Mountain Ash in the Cynon Valley, he is up against the council’s long-serving Plaid group leader Pauline Jarman. The expectation is that Cllr Morgan will win.
In Caerphilly, there’s a sense that there won’t be much change, although there’s speculation that while Labour may take seats off Plaid, the Labour leader Philippa Marsden has a battle on her hands against a strong Independent candidate. The continuing strength of Independent groups in various parts of Wales defies the notion that local politics simply replicates what goes on at a national level, whether the definition refers to the Senedd or Westminster.
There are various reasons why some candidates describe themselves as Independent. It may be that they left a political party and don’t want to join another one. Perhaps they want to disguise their true ideology because they think it wouldn’t go down well with those whose votes they are seeking. Or they may genuinely believe that party politics should play no role in local government.
Whatever the reason, Independent councillors play a significant role in the governance of Wales, with a role in the administration of 11 local authorities - one more than Labour. In some places they have been entrenched for many years, while elsewhere they have come together quite recently to defeat predominantly Labour councils that were perceived as letting people down.
Blaenau Gwent is an authority currently run by Independents, some of whom used to be Labour councillors, including the leader Nigel Daniels. At this election it’s a main target for Labour, whose local MS Alun Davies was out canvassing with Mark Drakeford in Tredegar on Monday.
“It’s easy to forget how popular Mark is when you’re in the bubble of Cardiff Bay,” he said. “People like and respect him because of the way he handled the pandemic, and we could easily have taken him around the town in a sedan chair. I enjoy canvassing because you learn a lot from talking to voters. You realise that some of the views you see expressed on social media aren’t reflected at all in the conversations you have with ordinary people.
“What they want above all is decent public services and honesty and commitment from the councillors they elect to represent them. The councillors I was out with in Tredegar work on food sharing projects in their local communities, for example, and gain a lot of respect as a result of that. Just putting out a few leaflets in the four or five weeks before the election can’t match that at all.”
Mr Davies said he was hopeful that Labour would be in the Blaenau Gwent administration after votes are counted: “Things are a bit complicated because the number of councillors is being reduced from 42 to 33. I reckon Labour needs to win four of five new seats and keep hold of what we’ve already got to win back power,” he said.
“What also has to be taken into account is that there are various Independent factions, some of whom are at each other’s throats.”
Labour also hopes to oust the Independents who run neighbouring Merthyr Tydfil.
Carmarthenshire is often portrayed as a council that alternates between Labour and Plaid Cymru, with Plaid currently in control. But when the leadership of the council last changed hands, it was because Independent councillors decided to end their previous alliance with Labour and form a new one with Plaid.
Often in such circumstances the outcome is determined not so much on policy grounds as on the jockeying for roles in a coalition administration. Such manoeuvrings can make it difficult to predict what will happen. Even pollsters shy away from organising polls at council elections because of the unpredictability of the final result due to unusual factors like the strength of the Independent vote.
Like a comfort blanket, Plaid Cymru is upbeat about its chances in its heartland areas. Arfon MS Sian Gwenllian said support on her patch - part of the Gwynedd council area - was overwhelming.
A couple of elections ago Plaid was given a bloody nose by a local party called Llais Gwynedd (Voice of Gwynedd), set up largely by disaffected Plaid councillors who opposed a school closure programme. Many have now returned to Plaid, but those who haven’t are standing without the “Llais Gwynedd” descriptor, leaving the box on the ballot paper empty.
Ms Gwenllian was also enthusiastic about Plaid’s chances of retaining the leadership of Isle of Anglesey council, as well as doing well in Wrexham, where nevertheless it is fielding candidates in less than half the wards. What can’t be forgotten, however, is that participation in Welsh council elections has been a minority interest for quite a long time.
At the last elections in 2017 the turnout across Wales was 41.8%, with a low of 36.3% in Caerphilly and Newport and a high of 53.0% in Ceredigion. Who would be prepared to bet that turnout will be higher on May 5?
