Exiled Russian Kremlin critic Mikhail Khodorkovsky said in an interview with FRANCE 24 from London that the Russian invasion of Ukraine is political "suicide" for Russian President Vladimir Putin, who "cannot win in Ukraine, even if he manages to take Kyiv or Kharkiv". This war is the result of an "emotional decision" by Putin, the former oligarch said.
Once the richest man in Russia, Mikhail Khodorkovsky spent ten years in prison for what he says were false accusations by the Kremlin. He has lived in exile in London since his release from jail in 2013.
In an interview with FRANCE 24, Khodorkovsky said Putin has been "deeply upset" by the events in Ukraine since 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea and Moscow-backed rebels declared autonomous republics in eastern Ukraine.
The Russian president’s decision to invade Ukraine is of an "emotional" nature, Khodorkovsky said, but while Putin shows “signs of senile paranoia”, he is not a "madman in the clinical sense".
But, the Russian businessman continued, Putin has committed "many errors" in planning for the Ukraine invasion, partly because of the isolation that plagues "all authoritarian leaders". The Russian president’s invasion of Ukraine was "a historic error", without which he could have remained in power until his death. Putin is committing political "suicide", Khodorkovsky said, because "he cannot win in Ukraine, even by taking Kyiv and Kharkiv".
The Kremlin critic predicted the "decomposition" of the Russian regime within "one or two years". While Russian public opinion largely supports the war, because of propaganda and Kremlin’s crackdown on the press, this favourable view will change once Russian soldiers return in coffins and the population begins to suffer the effects of economic sanctions and international isolation.
Khodorkovsky said he believes Putin is now trying to "buy time" in the face of the anti-war movement developing in Russia, and that to stem the demonstrations, he will have to resort to bringing in his army.
He echoed the call for anti-war demonstrations launched from prison by another stalwart Putin critic, Alexei Navalny.
A week ago, Khodorkovsky said, he "would have laughed" at the mention of a nuclear war. But "not today": "Putin is ready to use tactical nuclear weapons."
Click on the video player to watch the full interview.
